$BTC Market moves explained - 7/5/22
what's up what's up big chats let's get things set up folks let's get things set up folks it is a tuesday july 5th 2022 another day alive here on this planet i am just happy to be alive i'm happy to be able to join you here today i am um probably best known as uh you know big chads on twitter um i put out a lot of stuff academic observations about price trading psychology risk management um i have a lot of fun with that i love doing these youtube videos um of course i'm on youtube at sheds trading i don't really do it that often um because i try to focus my attention on bitcoin live where i'm a founding analyst uh twice a week i do a full market um update i cover you know all the major coins i cover altcoin requests and members have done well really um kind of navigating the market um you know we called the top as it happened and we've just kind of been in control uh for a while now so i'm quite proud of that so i don't actually do these videos that often because i i kind of saved my energy and saved my time for those bitcoin live market updates but um listen you don't have to pay for anything go to my youtube channel go to the playlists um check out that tutorials master class webinar playlist that's really going to help you get started you know how to set up your chart moving averages understanding basics about trend analysis i would encourage you to check that out i am of course the author of trading wisdom 50 lessons every trader should know um that's another you know some another way that i'm i'm known and i'm really i want to say thank you i appreciate that i appreciate how well the book has been received it's kind of nuts i mean look at those ratings it's pretty much ridiculous um it's done way better than i you know really ever thought it would do um i have a free version for you go to my youtube again chad's trading look on the playlist i'm doing one lesson at a time for you for free i'll eventually get the whole thing out i've got 15 lessons i'll probably do another one i'd say next week let's get me back there i'll probably do another one i would say next week so that's some of that intro stuff just kind of out of the way so thank you for joining um you know it's fun i love the fact that i've been doing a lot of spaces recently on twitter and and i would encourage you to check those out twitter is impersonal it's just and by the way let me know if you can hear me okay twitter is just impersonal just you know just some words but i like being able to talk to people i like some of that um long form stuff thank you steven i appreciate that love your book thank you so much i appreciate all that i like the fact that i can just go live and talk to you wherever you are in the world there's only 300 of you right now but that's fine um you know you are the lucky ones you're the ones you decided to take time time out of your day to hang out with me i'm going to drop some free alpha i'm going to take your questions and i'm really going to kind of explain the market moves um my last let's get this back up my last video like this was on 6 25 june 25th so i've kind of selected some tweets that i kind of want to go through things to kind of explain from that point kind of up until now and then you know we'll jump into the chat room and i'll take your you know i'll take your questions and all that so why don't you let me know where you are in the world i love that i love to hear um that you folks are kind of in all these like exotic places in the world it's fun to kind of reach out and connect with you what's up chad it's good to see you universe uh first time catch you live that's awesome uh netherlands great great to hear from the other ones book uh someone says the book is awesome i do appreciate that thank you so much uh let's see where everybody's coming from italy what's up ciao what's up italy australia um peru what's going on como estas ustedes in peru respect from pakistan and my respect to you um and uh respect to you for um you're you're being devout in what you believe in so um thank you for joining us today what's up brother man great to see you kentucky what's up to you in kentucky hope you are doing well only i've only really driven through kentucky i've not spent too much time in there uh solid jam that's church of eight wheels and all this good stuff so uh let's see kosovo it's great good to see you kosovo el salvador what's going on and what is it is it buchelli president buchelli watching here frankfurt for germany good and talk good to see you south dakota nice to see you south dakota minneapolis kashmir kashmir region that's fantastic indonesia look this is unbelievable colorado morocco i worked with a guy at a restaurant and he was awesome he's from morocco and this is a good dude so i have like good feelings about morocco just from that guy who um he was a chef in a restaurant i worked at ireland dominican republic hawaii look at this like we're just hanging out it's a worldwide thing so um and brazil uh bono noche oh brigado marcos thanks for joining so folks you're not here to hear me um butcher your languages you're here to kind of hopefully hear me drop some alpha again the books on you on amazon free version on youtube definitely encourage you to check out bitcoin live so let's start with i'm going to go through some stuff and i'll jump in and take your questions so what are we doing here so after the last so let me just start kind of a little bit outside in what's going on with bitcoin um what's going on with bitcoin what are we on the daily chart here daily chart and bitcoin all right there's the daily chart kind of index here in trading view um you know are we bullets are we bearish we're clearly bearish i mean that's not really like a debate um it's just a question of when the trend may reverse um if you kind of review my work up until this point i've been warning you to be careful i've been warning you on twitter on bitcoin live on youtube to kind of be careful of these bounces the false breakout these just kind of um generic mean reversion rallies lower bollinger to ema8 uh and then to 34 lower bollinger the you know ema 34 the yellow line right now like the boss the kind of um the most important one is the ema 34 the daily ema 34 that's what's stopped the price pretty um convincingly right since april you know we had the false breakout and before that we had the double top with the up thrust and then we started to recapture the ema 34 we set the high water mark at 45 46k rejected rejected rejected broke up above it came back below it it was full off full risk off if you've been following me you should you should have been completely out of the market you know 45 46 k before that you would have been completely out of the market around 55k when we called that kind of failed you know double eve double you know a double e double bottom so there's been you know there's been times what do you do now um you know what do you do now you know i was having a dm conversation with a with a guy who um had like bought in at 3k wrote it to 69k and it was back at 20 and i'm like what you know what are you doing you know it's tough now like would you sell here i don't know i feel like we're probably closer to the bottom than the top but hard to kind of know um what the construction um hard to kind of know what that construction is going to be right look why do i use the indicators listen i've already done it right i can't you know so go to my youtube hit playlists go to the tutorials watch these videos i've explained it these are like hour long hour 20 long mass master class i mean i could charge a thousand dollars for each of these and they're free just enjoy it answer all your questions i do it to make my life easier so i don't have to keep explaining everything every time so that you know go check that out that's why i use the indicators i use you know what are we doing where's the bottom um i've kind of talked a lot on on twitter about needing to see like a sentiment bottom needing to see more people kind of giving up thinking the bottom you know thinking bitcoin will never recover um we need to see that we haven't quite seen that yet there's still too much hope and enthusiasm um needing to see like a volatility and volume type of bottom we haven't seen that either um you know i've been talking about the 12 to 14k range um since march on bitcoin live and then since april on twitter so you know now that we're closer i'm not going to abandon that right so you know we had the clear breakdown at 30k and then we had the kind of test at the prior all-time high we're back below it and now we're trading below the weekly ma-200 that's a major problem so um i don't want to spoil these future tweets so maybe i'll just jump into them and we'll go sequentially um and that will kind of um get everything fleshed out you know essentially the way i'm trying to and once again thank you for watching who pays for this it's free brother well you know you don't have to pay for it man wookie chewy you know chill out there chewbacca it's free you don't have to pay for it man nobody's paying for it brother so um so let's talk about this btc observing outside bar at the upper bollinger band with an up thrust after in advance let's watch for the wall for the follow through snip it from trading wisdom it's from my book kind of talking about outside bars right so what was i what was i saying so that's in the context of this bearish pennant uh that we are in so but you know we'll drop to that lower time frame and we will look for that let's just quickly check the date that was on june 26th uh let's see june 26th boom boom boom here we go june 26th so you know up thrust what is that so we had already you know we had set a low here on june 18th and we bounced set the low june 18th we bounced we set we set the lower high on the high of that june 21st candle at um 21-7 so i had tweeted out um could be a wookiee conspiracy just saying the wiki market it's true wookie market they are they're deep right now they're deep in the red um i basically said you know keep an eye on that lower high right that's the lower high keep an eye on that so here what i'm saying is observing an outside bar at the upper bollinger band with an up thrust here we are here's the 21-7 this is a four-hour chart right rule of thumb is you drop to lower time frame uh you block me on twitter what's your handle i'll unblock you you know i'll you know amnesty i'm all about amnesty um type your handle in here i'm gonna unblock you and then you know if if something happens again i'll unblock you but drop your handle here i'm happy to give you another shot crystal so go ahead and drop that in there and and uh i'll try i'll unblock you so here was the lower high price went upper bollinger by the way so you go you go to lower time frame when the price is at a key level four hours a good kind of a trading time frame pardon me drop to the lower bollinger band ride back up and then we have the up thrust what does that mean we briefly broke above this high and then dip below it and then we have the outside bar and this candle is an outside bar kind of eclipsing or kind of enveloping that prior momentum um you know of this move up here so it's a sign that you want to be careful right and i talk about that here in the book outside bar eclipses the range of the prior candle it's kind of a momentum eclipsing signal in its context where does it appear in this case it's appearing up at the upper bollinger band um after an advance right right here right so i'm basically saying here right there right on this day in this tweet i'm saying observing an outside bar basically be careful pay attention okay chad you're a bear you know why won't you just let bulls have fun um you know no like i'm watching this 17 hours a day folks i'm doing it for me because because it's just my favorite hobby right now but i'm doing it for you and um you know i'm just just this is just what i do so deal with it right so we observe the outside bar at the upper bollinger band after the advance and then boom so far excellent returns from this observation so there you go you had a nice trade a nice short on that observation 21 you know 21 whatever 21 4 all the way back down to 20.2 k at that point right so you know that's low time frame trading that's kind of observing what the price is doing when it's at a key level right we already had the daily pivot let's go back to daily we already had the let's clean it up it's getting a little complicated here we already had the fact that we set the lower high here and then the price was advancing there and came up broke the high and came back below it right you're always kind of paying attention for that type of a thing broke that high came back below it four hour outside bar at the upper bollinger band after an advance yadda yadda yadda there it is right i'm just showing you what i'm observing you can take with it what you will i try to balance on twitter between explaining i don't want to explain the whole thing because i want people to be a little bit curious like what does he mean i want you to either go watch a video or just to google something right i want you to that's what i do i just tell you what the charts are saying that's that's all there is the price is the only truth i want you to be curious i'm always pushing you it's like that mother bird who pushes the baby bird out of the nest you know i'm trying to get you to see if i'm trying to see if you can fly if you can't fly not going to work out so well so there's that excellent returns from the observation real nice trade high lower high higher low we eventually tested that higher low and broke it all right what's the next one this is interesting right so i saw a lot of people calling for an inverted head and shoulders i was not on board with that so and uh what did i have the time frame here inverted head and shoulders this is like a four hour so what are we looking at you can kind of see it where people were like all right boom that's it there we go there's your shoulder there's your head there's your shoulder but you know with the head and shoulders there's a lot of stuff to take into account the volume actually did match up you want the most volume in the left shoulder um you want a little bit less volume in the head and even less volume in the right shoulder so the volume profile actually did match up so that's check mark but i didn't like the structure you had this kind of descending neck baseline right a descending line and the whole thing with the with you you really do not want to structure your trade ever structure your trade based on descending line because you know the whole like how do you know when it fails because if it breaks through it and comes back and that's next time you test it um you're already lower right btc is super dead save yourself this is good i want to see more of this uh for the bottom um this is what i want i was this is what i want to see right i want to see more of this stuff right don't hit the player hit the game respect to that one right um so look you don't don't ever base a trade based on a descending neckline break like a descending trend line shows you a trend not a line you don't go long based on a line break you have to use horizontal structure so when i'm playing a head and shoulders pattern i'm looking for a horizontal neckline like where do i define it like up here you know is it here like where's my breakout point i need a very clearly defined breakout point because when i enter a trade you know i'd like to enter as close to invalidation so i don't stick around forever right i want to enter as close as i can to invalidation so i saw this setup and i'm thinking no dice i'm not playing it you had kind of a funky looking ill-formed head and shoulders but it was inside a very clearly defined bearish rising wedge bearish rising wedge like what are you doing why are you looking for this minor reversal inside the larger bear trend it's a super duper bear trend rising wedge i put out a tweet um i put out a tweet i think right on this day right there and basically said spinning top at kind of you know ema eight which is primary downtrend resistance um in a in a moment where you could see uh you could say it's a bear you know a bear rising wedge it's a bear pennant it's a bear flag and you could draw doesn't matter what you name it it's bearish continuation bearish consolidation likely to break down and then boom right so you know don't get don't let the bumpers get you off track like you got to stay focused on the larger trend work your way down so the problem with this was that you did not have a very well defined neckline a neck bass line like how do you play this i wasn't playing that you know if it was a clean clean mean clean um lean you know head and shoulders with a neck base line here i know where i'm going long i also know where the head and shoulders fails right you know i've talked about this many times i'm not breaking ground you can review my old videos which i encourage you to do if you're losing money if you're struggling it's your fault unless you go watch my old videos and then even after that there's no guarantee but like you got to take advantage of what's out there right this isn't the first video i've done in youtube all right you know so take advantage of it right so that's that's that right this is what i'm talking about exactly why i only play head and shoulders with a clearly defined neck bass line didn't qualify look at this you break it and you just retest it all the way down like what are you doing so when you see people you know now you know when you see people calling this out you know they kind of haven't done their homework or they're they're really not that experienced uh more or less right thanks to what you do many thanks to you that's awesome good job good job appreciate that right uh i look really stupid oh i look really stupid i mean look at me i'm a guy in an orange mask um you know but i'll tell you i'll tell you this though i'll tell you this much you may think i look stupid but i'm still amazed that a guy in sunglasses and an orange mask is more trustworthy than 99 of crypto youtubers and twitter influencers so deal with it right um you can judge me based on this i i value my anonymity but i put out the real deal i have a body of work i have a body of work you can you can measure it up against anybody else i called top in the exact day i've been calling every move since so deal with it but yeah i do look i do look silly but if you can't get over that that's on you not me all right so let's just get that out of the way so this is why i'm not playing these these kind of facts darn right crypto potato good to see you i've seen you on the uh spaces nice to see you um so that's why i'm not playing these these kind of these head and shoulders with that descending neck bass line so here we go this is a controversial tweet i retweeted it and i triggered a couple people so the next daily candle with a 10k low to high range will start to mark the bottom why why why why chad chad's why chad's right please sir me familia right um like this trend is strong this is a trend this is a very strong trend right daily chart we'll get this later daily chart ma200 is rolling over confirmed downtrend we've been warning about that talking about it um weekly chart i mean if we get this ma200 flatten out and roll over it's going to take some time but we're in real danger here we're kind of uncharted territory we have these closes below the 200 but right at it back in 15 we haven't had this deep price penetration ever um so point is we've got a strong trend so to reverse a trend you need volume and you need volatility and if you've been around bitcoin as long as i have and it's not like that long i've only been in bitcoin since 2017 five years you know there's og's there's folks who i consider ogs who've been around the whole time i mean it's not me right i'm not like tone vase or like crypto kobe or whatever these folks who've been around i'm you know i you know just been around for a few cycles now right you need vault but i have studied i have studied professionally trend analysis classical charting um japanese candlesticks i've been practicing this for many years i wrote a book you know so i have some expertise you need volume and volatility to reverse a trend so you i've been basically saying we need this type of a candle where everyone's like what just happened this is ridiculous so we're right here at 20k let's say it drops you know let's say um we need like a big wide like a long range candle with crazy volatility to mark a bottom and we don't have it yet so we need i just i look if i'm wrong i'm wrong i'm always telling you what i believe to be true all right love your content here in bitcoin live thank you so much peter brandt is an absolute legend and by the way i just want to say i'm just honored to announce that my next long-form interview will be with peter brandt on july 20th like you know what are we talking about this guy diary of a uh of a professional commodity trader i'm interviewing him on july 20th the guy is like a legit legend and uh we've got we've got a good relationship and um i've met him he's a nice guy and he's my colleague somehow i'm a colleague with peter brant you know imagine that uh you know look at me ma i've made it right so i have an interview with him on july 20th keep an eye on that so but listen we need volume and we need volatility to kind of reverse this trend to kind of get something going so this is what i believe if it doesn't happen fine i'm just telling you what what i feel to be true take take from that kind of what you will all right let's go in next all right so alt coins right so i just picked and i just picked some and when i do these um when i do these quick market updates this will be in this playlist this video right now i'm quick market updates when i do these updates i kind of look at tweets in between the videos i think about what are some interesting even like thought-provoking things to say and kind of talk about so like altcoins like are we stacking alt coins i think that's ridiculous um you i think it's ridiculous i think it's not wise because i'm a trend analyst i'm not a fundamental guy i don't believe in the ecosystems i don't believe in the projects i don't believe in the dev team or any of that stuff you know i only believe in the price it's the only thing that really matters to me and you know i think it's crazy to start stacking alts when these downtrends are so strong and i firmly believe that you know it doesn't make any sense to buy altcoins until bitcoin bottoms when bitcoin bottoms and we'll know when it's bottomed at least temporarily you know i'll be tweeting it other people will be tweeting it you'll see the things i've been talking about the volume and the volatility uh we'll tag you know we'll at least kind of tag this this supply level this um demand level here you know kind of called the 14k just wait for that like why would you be buying altcoins now when the downtrend is so strong so i think it's crazy to buy them now long ways to go and this whole concept of cheap you know i had a good i i had a good friend of mine who i talked to i was on vacation i was down in virginia and i was talking to him it was like three months ago and he's talking about like he's buying shib and buying soul and i'm like what do why bro like like you know i'm chad's like why don't you call me and ask me what i think like like what are you doing and he's like he's like oh no they're cheap right they're cheap okay what does that mean cheap like cheat there's no such thing as cheap like the market is the market it's whatever you can buy and sell it for right in that movie uh margin call or selling to william mark willing willing market participants like participants at like a fair price like the price is the price like cheap there's no such thing as cheap like you do not know more than the market okay like it's worth what it's supposed to be worth you gotta fix your thinking right like you don't know more than the market the trend is strong it's headed down you know like what are you doing right there's no such thing as cheap it's it's just nonsense all right next tweet so all right what are we saying here uh and this is just me whatever like so twitter take it with a grain of salt some you know i'm i'm darn proud of what the work i've done on twitter right i called top on the day i warned you weeks beforehand i've been warning you every bounce since then to fade it um but like you'll see me i'm i will clout chase i have an ego i'm trying to grow my brand like so you know i'm human so like please accept that um but like i'm also always honest like i'm i'm always honest i'm just it's just free association thought here's what i think and oftentimes it's just brutally honest here's just here's what i think and the biggest problem people will just tell you what you want to hear and you saw all those folks who grew their accounts brand new to twitter 2021 now they have three four 500k followers just telling you you know stock to flow you know whatever you know whatever theory it's going to 300k i'm out here telling you it's not going to happen i'm going to tell you it's going to suck it's going to suck before it gets better like you're just people telling you what you want to hear in your chat room and your discord that's your therapy that's your cope group i'm not here to make you feel good i'm here to hopefully make you be more informed hopefully to make you feel more confident um and kind of more educated right so here's another here's just me just i'm just gonna lay lay out how i think so i'm waiting for 14k to start adding back to my huddle why well why chad's oh that's crazy well i've literally been talking about you know 12 to 14k you know since like the 35 40k range on twitter go look up the tweet where you know go look up the tweets or you know where i talked about it um it just makes sense it just makes sense for us to kind of tag this range i added some back to my hotel in the 40k range right back up when we were up here and it looked like we were gonna hold i'll show you in the daily it's a little bit better established a little bit easier um a little bit better illustrated on the daily chart where we were gonna it looked like it looked like we probably might have should have held the highs of january the lows of february the top of the 80 day rectangle the macro higher low i mean i've said this like probably 50 times by now and so when we were here i started to add back in in this range but i got out i sold whatever huddle i had i kind of added back here i sold on the false breakout i'm like i'm out and that's another thing like what's the point of a huddle like you you're never supposed to sell like when the market's like this is full risk off i tweeted out like risk off i don't have to pull up the tweet it's there this is an unbelievable warning sign sell signal back there in april um so you know i basically said you know i'm waiting till 14k to add to my hotel but i don't have i don't know that like that's the bottom like is that the bottom it's just a target and it's not about the price it's about how you get there and you know i've tweeted out some clips from bitcoin live march 6th report by the way i highly recommend bitcoin live i put my whole reputation behind the work i do there and just the world-class team that i'm part of i talked about the fact that it's not about the price it's how you get there and the fact that we kind of slow bled into the wma200 weekly simple moving average 200 period we're less likely to just bounce off of it right you need to shock a violent drop into it and we kind of slow bled into it and you know given that we didn't have that price structure at 20k any kind of support you know the whole concept of a chart that kind of rocket [ __ ] ships up it will slow bleed down because of the absence of the price structure pausing and consolidating along the way it just made sense 12 to 14k but we're kind of i don't know that we're going to hold there i have to see the price interaction with that level so that's just for me an area of interest and yes i'm more bearish than my colleagues and like i can totally live with that i kind of don't care um it only like almost makes me feel better like i just i just gotta be me and i'm gonna be me and i'm gonna be me and that's and by the way i'm gonna be me right so you know here's a this is a big problem with the wma turning into resistance like that's a that's a major issue look at this look at this price interaction now with the weekly you know ma200 we've never really we've never been this deep below we've never had it kind of essentially you're the best i'll have you a bull run listen um this is a quote this is a quote from from book three which i am working on right now trading quotes right trading quotes i'm getting ready to print out version three of my editing copy i have it out later in this later the year book thrill the quote from book three is if this is your full uh this is your first bull market just make sure it's not your last you're like whoa what does that mean that's that's what what does that mean if it's your first i'm sorry if this is your first bear market just make sure it's not your last it's like wait a minute what does that mean well listen it means survive like it means survive you survive this bear market you stay through the next bull market and you can make it all the way to like the following bear market right it's just basically saying like stick around survive manage your risk we're in kind of uncharted territory here given the kind of price penetration 532 of you good to see you here given that price penetration below the uh weekly ma200 right that's a major problem so you know at this point we have a real danger of essentially that we break 10k and turn it into resistance oh chad you're just sliding your levels down um you know we could get there and then you want 6k you know look i'm going to take it level by level but you know what why 10k right why is 10k important you've got some serious price structure at 10k okay the resistance you broke up above it held the support broke below resistance resistance resistance broke up above bullish throwback right i did that fast but if you're a student of big cheds you see it right so um given this price interaction with the ma200 you see it doing something like that we get down here and then all of a sudden 10k is is resistance right and then what right then what right we've got major systemic risk funds blowing up trend rolling over there's just no guarantee that doesn't happen so you want to prepare yourself kind of for whatever happened i'm seeing that as a scenario given what's going on with the price versus the 200 period moving average here's the next here's the next tweet right look so people have said you know when we were heading down uh you know we broke 30k when we broke 30k by the way thank you for listening thank you for watching great to have you folks here appreciate that um when we were dropping down below and by the way hit like subscribe all that normal stuff i'm not like a youtuber so i'm not good at this but you know when we broke 30k um you know people said oh you know we've it's never it's never broken below the prior all-time high before right it's never happened and my follow-up to that was what it's never happened in like the 12 years we've existed bitcoin's existed as an asset class like you can't hang your hat on what has never happened in such a short period of time and people people get caught up in that and i think i think it's foolhardy it's kool-aid drinking right so the moment you realize and here's the thing there's literally no guarantee we make a new all-time high in the next five or ten years yes this is yes this is incredibly drastic and you drastic you can say chad you don't understand the tokenomics and i'd say i don't care about the tokenomics i'm a price guy i'm a trend guy chad you don't understand bitcoin like fine like read the replies and you'll see the people who call me a complete [ __ ] which is great i believe in freedom of speech if you're abusive i'll just mute you most likely and i won't have to deal with it going forward but this is just like you have to realize there's no guarantee which means you have to manage your risk right i put out a tweet uh this is such an important tweet right look don't ever allow yourself to believe in a prod wrong one here we go don't ever allow yourself to believe in okay anything right the minute you start believing in something is the minute you stop managing your risk and respecting support breakdowns on the chart respect your money right respect your money so bitcoin has had so many key warning signs and people who you know believed in the super cycle or believed in the tokenomics or believed in whatever didn't sell on the major warning signs the 45k falls breakout the clear break below you know below 28k and that most recent breakdown so um there's just no real there's no guarantee you're not you're not oh no one owes you anything like the minute you realize that in life you know you'll do better nobody owes you anything okay um chad's is always bearish you mean i'm only embarrassed when the price is bearish i i'm not bearish the price is bearish i just means i have two eyes i'm literally looking at it chad is always bearish you probably only followed me since bitcoin's been bearish okay so if you go back to the to the mega bitcoin uh you know big mega bitcoin moves i was hell i was heck i was just a huge ball on the way up right and all these ema eight you know tests i was ready to go and here on this move up all that good stuff i'm bearish when the price is bearish i don't really care i don't have a preference i'm just calling it the way i see it if you followed me for a while you know that's the case there's no guarantee there's no guarantee you're going to get an all-time high it's probably going to happen but there's no guarantee ah let me see if i have the tweet okay so this is interesting there's no guarantee let me see here what was the tweet was it 56k 56k or 54k oops sorry about that technical difficulties boom so here we go all right so there's no guarantee we get an all-time high but what about this let's say bitcoin drops below 10k and range is there for six to 12 months then has a super ripper to 54k like what if that's our next our next high of cycle like people are just conditioned to like all i gotta do is buy all i got is huddle and all and i'll make it next time but like the mark it's just a new class and the trend is rolling over we're below the weekly 200. so you know what if that happens what if we do this we come and we come in get below 10k range here come back up and do whatever we do boom and then it's just 54k that's our high and become lower and then it's a lower high like secular longer term macro lower high and that would be a unbelievable run 5x 5x return reasonable or not good enough so you have to be open to the concept that like the trend has changed it's it it this time is different because of what we're seeing with the price versus the weekly ma200 right so you have to be ready you have to be prepared um don't just get stuck in the old mindset that it never breaks below an all-time high and uh love your vibes london to portugal i love your vibes um you know don't just get stuck in the old paradigm paradigm you have to adapt to new information adapt or die all right so i think it's great i think it's reasonable not to be an unbelievable run so you know this would be unbelievable drop below 10k we can accumulate then we get a 5xer well the people who bought at 60k believing that eventually we get to 100k they'll be pissed because they'll they're not gonna you know get unstuck or whatever they're not gonna get back below their initial entry so so what are some potential scenarios for a likely bitcoin bottom here's another tweet and people oh chad you're fudding no i'm literally just hanging out and telling you like what comes to mind and what i think is interesting and uh you know what like might reverse a trend right that's that's what i'm saying right so here are um here are some possibilities so we tag 10 to 12k slowly l bottom what's an l bottom right what's an l bottom boom boom that's an l here's a v there's a u here's a w right you see all sorts of us you know but l boom we drop down basically go sideways and accumulate that i think would be ideal that would make the most sense that's a possibility this is the most kind of most reasonable i think probably the most likely if i had to if i had to you know put my finger on one michael sailor sells in bitcoin probably not going to happen because the guy is a complete degenerate it's just an unbelievable degenerate i've been calling him out since he was buying up here in the like 50k range and i basically called him out on twitter and said like this makes you want a short microstrategy you're nuts people came out and said chad you don't understand uh this guy's a visionary this guy's this guy's playing chess you're playing checkers you know all right let's see which one of us is playing chess and which one is playing at checkers now all right how about that all right so every time he's bought the price has gone down so if he sells maybe that's a bottom you know and this would cause a lot of people to give up at once which is what you need to reverse the trend you need volume and volatility another famous permabull capitulates the president of el salvador we had a friend here a viewer you know who said they're from el salvador great to hear you as well um who cares we didn't get a blow off top who cares what is this stop falling on narratives it's a new asset class it's only been around for a little while oh because we didn't get a blow off top we're not gonna do 80 percent like stop listen to people who are just giving you stories focus on the price in the trend the same people were telling you we couldn't break below a prior all-time high i'm just i just so annoyed when i hear that oh because we didn't have a blow off top doesn't we had a really well defined top we went 3k uh to 64 to 69k like what are we talking about here we didn't have a blow off top like get a grip people all right take a deep breath sheds all right so another famous perma bowl capitulates like el salvador that would also cause panic and capitulation which is what we need for a a bottom okay 10k daily range candle i talked about that earlier volatility bottom and then some major exchange goes down coinbase binance or whatever and some price cascade you often will see a major exchange go down with like a short-term bottom right you see that love the passion i've been doing this for a while now i've been i've been on bitcoin life four years i don't think i've missed a video in three years i've been on twitter 18 hours a day for for for many years so i love what i do clearly so that's where the passion comes from and i'm good it's fun to be good at something i got to tell you i'll tell you that much it's fun to be good at something um so i enjoy i enjoy that so thank you for that comment so something like that major price major exchange goes down that would be a possibility just three more tweets so look this is what we don't want want to happen to the weekly ma200 here it is the blue line all right so what what am i talking about so back in april 12th big chad's price is at 40k and i said look at the history of the last two times on the daily chart the ma200 rolled over right this is a 40k we're in a pretty clear bear flag at that point we rolled over you know you know we shaved 50 percent uh off it at that point ma200 you see the blue line flattening out and then what happened boom rolled over and now we're at 20k we don't want to see that we don't want to see the ma200 flattening out and rolling over on the weekly chart which is a very real possibility the more time we spend below uh the daily ma200 right and so look at what's happened since the tweet i'm pointing out i'm trying to get people to i'm trying like that person who said we didn't have a blow off top like who cares what what does that mean what is that is that your like is that your is that what you tell yourself is that like a coping mechanism that's not actionable it's complete garbage like don't ever say you know i mean come on people stop listening to folks who are just feeding you that garbage so if we close here approximately 19k july 3rd so we have we did close pretty closely pretty close to that right um july 3rd so this is this week when did i put this out let's see july 3rd uh this is the morning this is in the morning the weekly candle so i'm basically saying this would be the deepest price penetration in history below the weekly ma200 and it's happened look at this price versus the ma200 we're barely below it barely blow it back in 215 2015 double touch v bottom uh which we're not going to have this time right we're not going to have the fed injecting all that liquidity we have an l bottom at best most likely and then we had it right here look at that deep close below oh i don't want to do that we had the let's go back and get rid of that we had a deep close below the ma200 right it's what i'm talking about um and i say here's reference it's 2015. closed kind of right near it and then there's the v bottom and we're only whatever a few percentage points and then here basically 15 percent below this is if we had closed it at 19k um what do we close out we closed at basically like 20k so it wasn't 15 it was like 13 12 13 percent the trend has changed like we're in newt we're in new territory here so i'm trying to tell people like there's no guarantee that we're done with the guarantees where you're guaranteed to just buy the eighty percent drop and then you're going to get a you know like a 20x or whatever like nobody owes you anything there's no guarantees nobody owes you anything okay period point blank and we are seeing the trend change that is a problem and so that's what this tweet is talking about all right let's see here let's see here all right all right what are we doing btc visual so here we go this is just a short term signal for a just kind of monitoring for our morning doji start back into range highs and descending trend line on the daily and so i put it out sometimes i'm just on my phone where i don't i'm not will you know i don't feel like just putting on a chart and annotating it but i want to get the signal out i'm also trying to push you i'm trying to be the the mother bird pushing the the baby bird off the nest i want to see if you can fly i want you to see this and be like what is he talking about let me go google it i'm trying to encourage you and then you know sometimes i'll say here's your visual morning doji star right it's a morning star but with a doji versus a spinning top morning doji start back into range highs range is like top of the range bottom of the range but it's corresponding with the descending trend line on the daily all right chad oh chad someone replied oh chad i i thought you don't use you don't use diagonals i'll tell you what i don't use them to form a trade but i use them to observe a trend right a trend line is about the trend not the line right and it doesn't really matter well whether i draw it here let me move that a little bit actually it doesn't matter where i really draw here or here or here that that actually doesn't matter because there's a filter around the line it's showing the trend you've got a clearly defined uh structure of of lower lower highs and falling supply right that's what that trend line is showing you right then you've got the higher low structure here as well more or less forming the um bearish pennant on the four hour charts we have the outside bar on the daily i tweeted that outside bar on the daily it's led to some type of a mean reversion rally but we still really haven't broken through that trend line we're at the daily ma20 so far essentially stalling and there it is right you know uh uh morning doji star right up until resistance so we'll see what happens right trends tend to continue price will most likely break bearish out of this pattern if it doesn't it doesn't you know it doesn't mean like bulls one and the bottom is in then we start to watch for i mean it's sequential it's level by level we watch our lower high break we watch where the the most recent up thrust was around 21-8 21-7 we watched for price interaction with daily ema 34. we need to close above the daily ema 34 before you can start to sniff out sideways okay a downtrend and this has gone longer than i thought 49 minutes already downtrend will go sideways before it goes up right and that's what we did back when we had the false breakout here we started to go sideways we recaptured 34 we went sideways then we had the false breakout and the rejection we almost reversed and it failed so if we can somehow rally to and close above the daily ema 34 we'll start to watch for price structure we'll start to watch for a you know the price to go sideways and lots watch for some type of a pivot you've got resistance at the underside of the prior broken support you've got the falling anime 50 get the following daily ma200 you've got all that right that's all within the context of everything i've said earlier about what's going on with the weekly time frame all right i've gone on way longer than i thought i was gonna go on 50 minutes friends you can find me on twitter i am at big sheds academic observations about uh price trading trading psychology risk management i do this for fun i appreciate all your feedback if you don't like it like no sweat you know move on if you disagree with me good right like if we all agreed about what the price should be there would be no market the market the price wouldn't move okay i am the author of trading wisdom 50 lessons every trader should know the feedback's been ridiculous i never thought it would be the successful that's that's the god honest truth i never thought it would be this successful uh 4.7 out of 5 stars uh kindle audiobook hardcover or paperback you don't want to buy it
no sweat free version at chad's trading on youtube trading wisdom 50 lessons every trader should know i'm doing one lesson at a time if you want to get serious if you want to stop messing around if you want to stop screwing around join bitcoin live i'm a founding analyst along with a just world-class team of analysts i've been doing market updates for four years i haven't missed one in three years twice a week i'm on vacation i'm sick i'm doing a video update if i miss an update i've been kidnapped like i will not miss an update you can count on that helps me practice uh helps you folks out as well so i would encourage you to check that out um but more than anything i want to say thank you i appreciate the opportunity to come here on a tuesday night and just kind of talk to you to ramble on to explain my tweets uh to kind of go over what i think is going on in the market i really enjoy that it's a worldwide thing i love your feedback we've had some just unbelievable feedback um you know night reliable chats nice live video thank you it's just it's just great um check me out on youtube i do on twitter i do spaces as well i enjoy hearing from you folks there so um i appreciate you and bring on the dancing sheds you ask for it you you will get it so listen um i hope everybody's doing okay you have to learn how to define your risk before it defines you when you take a trade know when your idea fails and be willing to walk away and say my idea failed right i need to step back i need to learn a little bit more i need to kind of reassess so don't get too mad don't get married to a bad idea stop adding to your losers and um that will kind of set you in the right direction so thank you so much for watching thank you so much for listening and uh you know i'll talk to you folks again soon let's get this party started so peace out
2022-07-09 10:55
