$BTC Market moves explained - 6/25/22

$BTC Market moves explained - 6/25/22

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foreign what's up what's up what's up oh terrible okay  sorry about that terrible dj my bad i just micro   specialize in the bitcoin price i look at it 17  18 hours a day so you don't have to terrible dj i   love to dance uh folks thank you so much i am big  chad it is a day it's saturday june 25th 2022 i'm   just happy to be alive i'm happy that you're here  with me on a saturday night we're just hanging out   we're doing the same thing we're watching bitcoin  we're part of the cryptocurrency space so thank   you for joining me tonight let's get the uh  let's let's tone things down here it's time   to get serious right tell you i'm a terrible dj  sorry about that um it's time to get serious right   uh trading serious right we can't have fun ah you  can't have fun actually you can have a lot of fun   and it's a lot more fun  when you feel in control um   when you feel like you're you're in control  you're defining your risk you're kind of managing   the situation uh you're managing the moment  we're going to talk about that we'll get to   that in a minute so folks please do reach out  to me i do wash the jacket how often you work   so listen i only use the jacket i i don't  i only youtube stream every three weeks   because i'm doing bitcoin live i can't  just i can't just do this all the time   i'm giving it to bitcoin live that's what it's  all about let's just get that out of the way um   add screen all right i'm on i'm on twitter  i'm at big treads academic observations about   uh price trading psychology risk management  i am the author trading wisdom uh 50 lessons   every trader should know it's had unbelievable you  know reviews so thank you once again to everybody   uh four formats the audiobook's pretty cool um but  if you don't want to pay for it i've got your back   go to my youtube channel at chad's trading go to  playlists click on trading wisdom 50 lessons every   trader should know i'm doing every lesson for you  for free i'm gonna put the whole book out for free   i've done 15 of the 50 lessons every four weeks  maybe three four weeks i'm doing a new lesson   uh you folks are crazy there's only a fat like  1400 views uh let's go to videos like you folks   are crazy there's only like 1.7 k views on this  video all right the book is unbelievable it's free   like go watch these videos at a very minimum if  you want to learn how to trade go to the playlist   click on tutorials master class ta webinars  this is going to teach you moving averages   level to level trading understanding your  risk you have to watch all three of these   and if you're really serious you're ambitious  um you actually want to stop uh you know losing   getting like failing all the time thank  you so much i'm just trying to do my thing   um just having fun there's a long way to go uh  when new book i'm actually working on right now   right here this is book three this is the second  printed um draft i'm getting ready for the third   printed draft so later this year it's gonna  be good i'm working on it if you're see if you   really have that ambitious check out ambition  check out the quick market updates there's a   lot of really good stuff in here as well so um  thank you for watching i'm gonna quickly check   the uh chat room and say hello to everyone  we've got a lot of people who come each time   there's new people just you know thank you for  coming uh let's see and there's one more thing   let's move that right over there and i would be  loath to not mention i am a founding analyst at   bitcoin live bitcoin live is the best in class  educational platform for crypto twice a week i   do long form full market updates um you know take  chart requests i haven't missed an update in like   three years uh i'm on vacation i'm sick uh there's  an asteroid about to hit the planet i'm putting   out an update so i encourage you to encourage you  to check it out and it's i'm part of a world-class   team an unbelievable team uh it doesn't get any  better than the folks at bitcoin live something   i'm really proud to be part of i'm gonna check  the chat room i'm gonna talk about bitcoin price   um and then i'll just first of all thank you for  watching thank you for listening and letting me   kind of um ramble through all that from australia  it's great to see you from ukraine hello from   sweden uh nice to see you hi again wherever you  are you know i don't know where you are it doesn't   matter um so just kind of catching up a little  bit in the chat room i don't have a team you   know i don't have like a publicist i don't have a  mark it's just me i'm just look i'm just a guy who   i've survived somehow you know i've survived  a lot of stuff is maybe stronger i'm trying to   pass on that right um so i don't  you know i can't read all the chat   the the uh the chat so if you missed your chat  i'm sorry um but i'm doing my best i really   just check out the youtube tutorials i'll  get you started that'll help you out a lot   church of eight wheels so i mean okay um let's see  let's do real quick let's see uh let's see where   is it all right let's try that here's the original  song this is saying is way better let's try it okay real quick we're just gonna get this out  of the way you tell me what's better that one   or this one right you got to decide all right this  is what's important right that's what's   important this is why you're watching so  youtube just you folks i'm just having fun   changing up the music thank you uh  sound is terrible is this sound terrible   folks does this sound terrible i did a sound  test before this the sound should be fine   uh please let me know i'm gonna get right into  this i don't wanna waste too much time we've   already wasted quite a bit of time we're looking  at the bitcoin chart uh on the daily chart right   now we're looking at a bitcoin base in the daily  chart and we're looking at the price interacting   with the ema eight it's an exponential moving  average that means there's more price weight   given to the most recent candle as opposed to a  simple moving average like the m820 the uh you   know the middle bollinger band right the 20 period  eight ema i i think about it as primary resistance   or primary support i'm going to invert the chart  and this is an uptrend and this is coming back i   bet 10 out of 10 of you bulls would say that's a  bull pennant i see a bull flag i see anything you   whatever you would call it you'd see this and then  you'd see that you see oh that's a bowl and then   insert name right so when you're seeing that in  in inverse you have to recognize that all right   so you say okay it's a nice little move um kind  of probably a you know rising bearish wedge   interacting with the ema eight and you know the  price does this you've been trading for a while   so you understand kind of level to level trading  you've got kind of a a bed of support you've got   kind of a bottom of channel you go to kind of an  upper part of the channel right lower high where   the price is rejected here the evening doji star  right go back watch old videos you've got kind of   those ranges established and then you break the  range and you kind of ride that lower bollinger   um you kind of ride that lower bollinger and you  kind of bounce bounce from that lower bollinger   right and so it's a question of kind of the  manner of which that happens and when you get   um like the jan 24 bottom the feb 24 bottom  you get a better reaction off these like   longer lower shadow candles even here the um  you know the the long leg doji from may 12th   had even a lot longer big big lower shadow we this  is okay we've had kind of a minor reaction so far   and we're just bouncing up into the  eight ema so we're waiting we're watching   we understand the price has rejected at the daily  ema 34 we understand that we're kind of looking at   we're measuring almost um you know the strength  of the mean reversion that's all we're doing   we're kind of data scientists we understand we  understand it's a bear trend we understand within   that larger bear trend we'll have smaller bull  trends you know attempting to shift momentum and   those are those are those mean reversion rallies  right we kind of understand that and we understand   how we're almost measuring those you know like  a like a i don't know geologists or whoever you   know measures um earthquakes i mean you're looking  at it on a richter scale so you know can the price   interact with this level can it close above  this level you know what does it do next um   how do you know how does how does that  price interact with with um prior broke   uh loss support levels stuff like that so you're  kind of just chalking up marking up the chart   and that's how you're approaching it it's a trend  you get to dissect it right you can't just sit   there and feel um helpless all the time and say  i have no idea what's going on and nobody can   nobody can predict what's happening next like you  have all this data in front of you you have the   chart you have the trend you have a gut there you  have how it has interacted with levels in the past   those are things that allow you to make an  educated guess the only thing you can do   is make an educated guess right you can make  the best guess based on the best information   and then what what's so important to go with  that is knowing when you fail when the idea fails   this this thesis has failed and i'm out boom  i'll take i have 80 percent left alright 85   90 left of what i put in great okay it's not  perfect but i still i'm preserving my capital   um you know i'm ready for another another try and  this time i'm probably gonna have a smaller size   understanding i need experience right if you're  struggling start betting less if you're struggling   cut your position size in half cut your watch list  in half do those two things and come back to me   let me know uh what happened so we have the price  in kind of a classic consolidation phase i'm going   to walk you through some tweets um and once again  uh thank you for listening i kind of went on a   spiel there good evening good to see you thank you  lord samurai uh wisdom with chad's i'm just having   fun listen i'm just i've been there right i've  somehow survived i've made it out of the pit and   um you know anyway let's not get too poetic here  we're going to talk about so june 16th sentiment   like price can turn around so par real quick i  sometimes when i do these youtube updates i'll   try to explain some tweets one thing is people  say is you're too cryptic on twitter chad's and   like part of it is i'm trying to encourage you  um to learn and to google things i can't explain   everything every time like i can in every tweet  explain every pre-qualifying condition for you   to then understand what i'm trying to to to  infer or kind of what observation i'm trying   to make you have to put in that baseline effort  yourself right so i can't do that um but when i   so when i but when i do these youtube videos i'm  trying to explain as best i can to kind of give a   little more context hopefully this will will be  of value to you so thank you for watching that   521 of you sentiment like price can turn  around quickly um but must bottom first too   much enthusiasm hope still in the equation so this  is me kind of opining as you might say on the 16th so somewhere in this candle right at some  point in this day probably maybe in the   middle i guess i'm basically saying that you  know there's still too much hope in the market   and we're trading at just above 20k and we  haven't really we haven't quite broken it yet   um but i've just been talking about it's likely  to break i think we probably will break you   know starting back in march on bitcoin live i  started talking about um let's go to the other   one here with the longer ma200 i started talking  about um you know potentially you know we lose   30k we're testing 20 if we you know but we'll  probably probably break it and i kind of always   been talk you know i've been talking about the  price heading to this range um since then and then   in april i started talking about it on twitter  where i said you know the run from 12k to 100k   is going to be amazing it was a provocative tweet  and i was spitballing a little bit but you know   the first part was more confident than the second  part you know i've had people ask me well tell me   how do you what does the 100k route look like  i can't tell you that until i see a bottom form   um per se but i mean i could i could but it's like  a very low degree of confidence but the first part   it's a lot easier to see because that's your key  pivot i think it definitely gets to that range and   i've been talking about it you know break the  200 we have a break the 200 because we didn't   approach it in a violent enough manner in kind of  a rapid enough manner to kind of bounce off of it   you need that kind of elasticity of the price you  need to take advantage of that price elasticity   you know we're rubber band you pull it back so far  it can really snap and that's what you need to do   to reverse a trend you know and that's because  we've had such an orderly sell-off in bitcoin   you know with just that one example of us  trying to to balance and getting rejected   on the daily ma200 under underside  we've talked about it a million times   so you need that um and so you know i've been  saying look we're probably gonna we're gonna gonna   head lower give him momentum we lost 30k that was  a big deal and um so that's why you have to manage   your risk you know that's the whole point if you  bought in you know based on 100k at some point   up in here there were all these times to sell you  had plenty of time to sell so now you're a holder   you're an investor you're not a trader that's fine  but if you're going to tell yourself that you're   that you're a trader if you're going to tell  someone else you're a trader if you're going   to pretend to be a trader a trade needs an idea  and then it needs to know exactly when the idea   is invalidated because that's when you leave  that's your stop loss that's your failure point   um and you need it and if you're not using  it you have to stop right now and pull all   your money out and kind of hit the books all  right so 20k was heading to 20k probably head   into this price cluster kind of in that 10 to  10 to 12k range so i started talking about that   so we're back in june 16th and i'm basically  saying but but kind of with that is the idea that   um and this is this is a repeat i've talked  about 100 times uh hello from honduras uh   thank you as well hello to you as well thank you  for saying that nice to see you um you sentiment   right you need sentiment right sentiment will bot  will help the price bottom right and if you kind   of look at the history of bitcoin you know we're  heading towards one of those major points where   it's like a big a big major secular long-term  bottom is coming and whether we're halfway there   two-thirds of the way there you know 80 you know  something like that is is remains to be seen um   but it corresponds to the sentiment bottom and you  if you look back here i had a tweet you know where   i said there was three words too much enthusiasm  and that was that was the top you could just like   tops and bottoms and then around here i was a  little late on this bottom and you know people   have pointed that out and that's fine i mean i  didn't get 28k i got 33k 34k like that's fine   um but sentiment was there in terms of  like you look for kind of people giving up   um but but really having having been through  these prior bottoms before um and through my   own experience you know sentiment will lead  and you'll see people saying that bitcoins   are done like you we haven't seen it yet  i just don't feel like we've seen that   in sentiment yet and you know i follow sentiment  and it's it's helped me me kind of spot these tops   you've seen it on youtube twitter  bitcoin live i mean sentiment's deadly   so you know you know there's still too much hope  in the equation sentiment can turn around quickly   but it must bottom first so i think everyone  yeah i get people who are buying and and and you   know for whatever long-term reasons but sentiment  has not bottomed yet you have to you got to have   you have to be aware of that hey thanks buddy hey  thanks you man thank you kelly appreciate that um   let's see everybody else just  checking in in the chat rooms   so why do you good question what do i in order  blocks in order flow because those are those   are outside of the price if those things are  important i'm going to see the price move   i just follow the price and i look to see what  the price does with the key levels your job   as a technical analyst is to identify the trend  and then ride the trend and make profit while   you're riding the trend and while you're doing  that you're looking for signs of trend weakening   or trend strengthening and that's how you decide  to increase or decrease your risk it's just   it's just that simple right none of that none of  that matters i don't look at anything outside of   the chart other than sentiment sentiment is the  only thing i look at outside of the chart and   i'm sure that you could say that's some cognitive  dissonance i'd say okay i'll i'll get that because   how can i not how can i ignore macro i'm aware  of some things but i know i know i don't have   expertise in them so i at least consciously do not  draw kind of conclusions on those things so yeah   sure they're part of the soup um but i really just  look at the price and i look at sentiment right   so let's continue on so mean basically  saying back then right june 16th somewhere   um you know somewhere in this channel and by the  way thank you for listening i did a spaces earlier   almost three hours i had some great guests as well  check that out on twitter so i'm basically saying   we haven't really bottomed with sentiment you know  we hadn't broken 20k yet i felt like we were gonna   at least break 20k and i said here on june 16th  later in the day this is a couple hours later   you better figure out quickly if you are trading  or investing here right you gotta you gotta figure   out uh trading love from jordan hey thanks bud  appreciate that and good morning to you as well   thank you as well here you go trader or investor  right so that's the thing you got to just you   have to decide if you're trading or investing  here what i mean by that when i put this out   i'm basically saying we're about to like hit  we're about to take us to you know um taking   a ramp off the highway we're about to exit the  highway we're about to make a change we're about   to turn here um i mean breaking 20k is a paradigm  shift right we break 20k we're probably gonna go   to low teens we haven't done it yet but it's the  same way in the same way we broke 30k it meant   we were almost definitely going to test 20k we're  kind of in that paradigm and i'm basically saying   like if you're you got to decide because a lot  of people were were loading here 223k and loudly   and i got it right ma200 i get that um but i  think given momentum was a little premature   and you have to decide you know because we're  about to dip below 20k this is what i'm saying   more or less you know we ended up dropping to 17k  and you know for sure we had an initial bounce you   know we're and we're close to those those are low  20k levels right we haven't quite broken down yet   um per se but you need to decide and this is  basically me saying and kind of uh trying to stay   in kind of a clever way we're at a p we're at a  turning point in the road we're at a turning point   um you know this is a uh we're at like a key  turning point in the road right so that's what i'm   saying there on june 16th later in that candle now  i said how do you this is just whatever you know   i was talking about before we broke 20k on the  way up you know how do you plan on celebrating it   i mean whatever it was just whatever it was like a  couple days before we broke 20k so it wasn't like   a genius call or anything but i'll just hey you  know same question now in reverse and it just felt   timely we're about to break 20k on the way down  we haven't done it yet we're 21k whatever it is   uh june 17th uh following day here we've got that  doji you know people are calling inverted hammer   we're gonna bounce and i'm you know talking about  inverted hammer two-thirds bearish continuation   upper shadow um you know all that stuff and  um you know then we eventually continue lower   but the question is what you know how are you  going to feel about breaking 20k and you have to   improve you're preparing people and you still  have a lot of people literally you're at 21k 21   22k you still have people saying we'll never break  20k and you're and you were right there you know   so that was like a big deal that was a that  was a battle that was going on it's a battle   like for the psyche right um of the market right  uh my good morning was on point i mean it's just   a good morning i don't know how it could be off  point i just literally woke up i'm feeling good   and i wanted to you know say what's up to the  peeps so um i don't know i don't know how it   could be off point um but uh let's see right  there so the question is so you know but you   still had that was a big moment that was a big  pivot point right are we gonna break 20k you   know we did we bounced bounced off 17k kind of  we've been drifting back and as i said earlier   you know we're right at the ema eight likely  likely in a bearish um continuation pattern   so that was and now we have here we go boom june  18th the next day boom notable breaks 20k for the   first time so we did it since december 2020.  that's a big deal right first time back below   20k you have to go all the way back right since  december 2020 on the way up right right before   that move that's a that was a gorgeous move can  we just kind of like step back and say what a move   um you know 20 to 60 k 30 k 60 you know six you  know 65 30 you know 69 i mean unbelievable right   and we're so we're back to 20k there it is  notable first time right since december 2020   so now i'm kind of just talking spit here i'm  just whatever see people tweeting about rsi and   it's just it just bugs me because i've seen this i  see this every time i see an every downtrend where   somebody who just refuses to refuses to admit  like they were early or that like refuses to   recognize it's a downtrend is like just like  up rsi boom we're under 30 it's time to bounce   and i talk about the fact that like a strong to  fear and greed okay here we go fear and greed i   said personally first of all i said there's no  single indicator that cost people more money   than rsi almost everybody uses it how do i  survive i bet less first of all and i blew   up my account like four times i've like zeroed  out accounts at least four times i can just i   could just you know talk about but um you know  since then i survived at betting less and and   managing my risk and defining my risk um so and  all the stuff i talk about um i talk about so   rsi right so everyone uses it but they use it the  wrong way like you know this isn't the first time   i've addressed this so it's not like i'm revealing  uh anything or kind of breaking ground here but um   you know when something's over when something's  oversold right uh how do you become oversold   right rsi is a great way to get trapped that's  a great point how do you become oversold you   become oversold by being bearish and trends tend  to continue a bear trend is likely to continue   so um you know i don't want to be long something  oversold that's like me playing i don't want to   play a reversal play i want to play a continuation  play i want to play a throwback right a bullish   retest or even a bearish retest that i'm fading  right i don't want to play a reversal play it's   easy it's one it's just a quick it's like  playing the slot machine i'd rather play poker   where i can have a skill edge i'm  not going to play some some nonsense   that's a reversal play and rsi just traps  people they don't understand like oversold   is a reason to sell not buy over bot is  a reason to buy you're buying you want to   buy with momentum the biggest runs on bitcoin  have come daily weekly time frame on overbought   entering the power zone going above 70. so rsi you  know honestly my my suggestion would be to delete   rsi and never look at it i almost everybody  would trade better if they just ignored the rsi   i haven't used i don't use it at all i don't  do it at all it's an easy way to i want to   look at the price i just care what the price is  doing how the price is interacting with the key   levels i look at volume you know like a sentiment  right so rsi and then fear and grieves nonsense   uh like don't ever like please don't ever get in  a situation where you're letting this factor into   you deciding to risk your funds your hard earned  funds you don't have just money to play with   this stuff like stop stop convincing  yourself you're gonna buy the bottom   right like buy a trend and ride that trend don't  try to guess when a trend is going to reverse   okay and then here we go here we go here we  go june 20th um so that's that's my rsi talk   because people were talking about like rsi here  and we're due to bounce at 26k after we had lost   structure i saw people tweeting here to buy  an rsi after we'd already we were like in the   middle or the early stages of a breakdown  and it's like where what are you doing   okay like did you don't just buy here  because the rsi is low you just lost support   you're below you're 26k you're heading towards  that may 12th low probably gonna break it maybe   you bounce from it okay then you say okay you know  it initially balance but then especially when you   break the 25k low you're still talking about rsi  like what are you doing delete it stop using it   focus on price versus key levels okay so june 20th  a lot of [ __ ] what is this june 20th june 20th doji right and it doesn't matter the color i  don't want to hear it's a green doji it's a   red doji that just means you don't get it  you know i say that with love by the way   um the kadoji is a neutral session it doesn't  have a color so you can't say yes it's a bullish   neutral session excuse me like those two things  don't it's just a neutral session it's indecision   candle context of this doji uh was after kind  of the big green candle was a temporary stalling   led to the spinning top pulled back a little bit  you know um and continued but on that day um i was   saying a lot of bullish sentiment and it wasn't at  that point it was up here at the top of the candle   no it's right about here it's right about here  basically saying look we're heading towards   the ema eight that's before any of this stuff had  happened it was just it was just a lower bollinger   to a below ema eight movement i mean if you  were in this trend and you just ignored if you   just ignored like that you look at this and say oh  that's incredibly bullish you'd probably draw this   line you draw this line and you're telling me that  it's going to the moon okay like you got you have   to be aware of just you're going to have little  move little trends within the larger trends right   you can do it you can look at the larger trend  then look at the smaller trend and then not   feel so helpless you say okay we're just a little  bounce we're not even at the ema eight yet where   it always rejects on the daily chart it has to  first interact with it close above abrupt boom   rejection so this is the day before people were  calling bottom already and maybe it's bottom   okay let's wait and see i know what i'll need to  see happen first i've talked about it many times   but at this point it's like 80 90 reject on the  ema eight okay and then boom big spot here we   go okay this is interesting four hour let's update  on this four hour uh ema eight trying to cross the   uh so this is like it's like so a trend goes down  and then needs to go sideways before it can go up   and you get moving averages flattening out and  if you get enough of a reaction is when you can   get across right you don't want a moving  average cross in a sideways market because   you need a trend to reverse that's the point of  a moving average cross um you know we've done   this before if you look at bitcoin on the way  up on the way up to um on the way up to a 64k   i've done this kind of you know in in other  instructive videos where you can just see where   uh let's get rid of that the green and the  yellow where you know on the consolidation   periods where it's doing a bull flag or it's  doing whatever it does and that's to buy the   dip excuse me it doesn't cross it doesn't  cross it doesn't cross and boom it crossed   came back and crossed so we had talked about it  at the time to kind of watch these moving averages   you know signs of trend weakening and i'm talking  about how it's a big spot here on the four hour   you're looking to see if the trend uh can  bounce here so it looks like it has crossed   let's uh get rid of that real quick and and get the ma50 so we are crossing um and this  is kind of you know not a big movement from it   yet but that that definitely is something  so this is an opportunity to talk about   you know chad's this is a head and shoulders  what are we looking at here so you could define   it as a head and shoulders right but what is  it what good is that to you unless it um you   know breaks out or it gives you an opportunity  to to make to kind of um make money on it right   where do you like the whole thing is you  have to either enter at the failure point   which would be when the right in this case  would be kind of the right shoulder failure   right here or be a neckline break but how are you  drawing your neckline is it this like diagonal   well like if you enter here yeah okay yes it  initially bounced off of it but if you enter here   you have to retest it all the way down is it this  is it this low here 217 which i think is probably   your best case a more the most reasonable yet  still a little bit aggressive entry or is it here   maybe even you extend the zone here right  because that's the top of your left shoulder   right so like when you enter i try  to only play head and shoulders with   a horizontal neck bass line and i've talked  about this and this is just a messy setup for me   um i don't mind if i like missed this look you  know little messy setup i'm gonna play the larger   trend i'll know when the trend reverses like the  price will tell you and i'm looking at the daily   chart looks like a bear a bear continuation  right looks like a bear continuation bear   i could draw a bear pennant i can draw a  bare flag i can draw a bare a rising wedge   um it's just still still so far kind of  a minor relief rally got the volume trend   right standard volume trend which means this  channel is like one to two days from being done   we are one to two days from this making a move  one interesting you know it's not something you   should be surprised at this is all here for you to  study and learn bitcoin's giving it to you right   we've it's it's trading clean it's been trading  clean uh for a long time so emi8 that's a big   spot it's bounced but i'm i'm still sticking to  the to the um larger trend this and boom we just   okay whatever this is me just saying look we  bounce we're rejected right off the eight all   right good so that's a good rule of thumb is to  assume any counter trend rally will fail until it   closes above right any counter trend rally we've  closed above it a little bit but like does it   really look like it's we've started to recapture  it but it's not like super convincing yet you know   when you're wanting what you want to see is kind  of here i'll show you what what i mean and like   another alt you want it to like close up here in  this candle where it closes up above it in kind   of a more rapid manner when the moving average is  starting to flat start to flatten out it's a lot   easier to recapture them right that's why you look  for relative strength right in these in these kind   of market wide bottoming situations you look at  bitcoin you kind of see what it's doing you use   that and then you say okay now i understand  what bitcoin's doing i'm gonna look at what   everything else is doing and then i'm gonna play  what the strongest you know things are right um   okay let's see so i told let's see let me  get another example let's uh what has been   kind of strong soul is initially strong yeah let's  see here yeah so the soul definitely more strength   initially and you know for me i'm waiting to see  a breakout here ma50 that's the key lower high   we have the diagonal break i employ a two level  filter um where you want to for me a diagonal   break and first of all a trend line this um this  ties into the last tweet you know use bodies   in wicks for your trend line that's crazy it's  not there's no there's no line there's a trend   there's only a trend and the line is to alert  you to kind of a generalized price zone there's   a little filter around the line so i i don't  i tend and i tend to not use a diagonal break   in structuring my risk risking my hard earned  funds i employ that two level filter i'm looking   for kind of a horse the diagonal alerts me as to  when i should start looking for a horizontal right   and here you have the confluence or the combining  of that lower high break and the ma50 it's a   pretty clean setup so this would be a nice clean  a niche clean trade for me we break above 45   but in this case we see the relative strength we  see the price recapturing the ema eight as it's a   little bit more violently um than bitcoin  so at this point um you know we're still   gonna we're gonna watch that daily ema 34 we're  going to look at we're going to kind of still   understand that looks to be a standard bearish  continuation pattern until proven otherwise   you have to go with what is the most likely while  being open to you know the lesser chances but but   recognizing what that would be right for the bear  trend to weaken right the bear trend will interact   with and close above the daily ema 34. the bear  trend will recapture this lower high here at 21.7   which we're watching right that's a pivot you're  looking for something to allow you to manage your   risk you're going to at least observe that the  price was rejected here in the first kind of   uh you know reasonable strength bounce from  the first bounce from the from that that   temporary bottom into the ema eight that's  like a high water mark you're looking for   something a high water mark that you can say okay  well if i break that later i'm gonna use that to   go long right and if it gets back below i can cut  my trades you save there you go i'm gonna look at   that 21-7 right 21-7 you have something to work  with it's still a high risk not not a strong it's   not a well-defined level per se um so but it's  something and then from there it's ema eight   right the ma20 hasn't really had any play recently  with the price we're still focused on the ema 34   we're rejected here we're rejected here we're  rejected here it's rejected there for months   so you're kind of you're remiss you're asleep  with the wheel you're irresponsible if you're not   factoring that into your analysis at this point uh  in the meantime it's just still just a bear trend   probably bearish continuation we'll see how it  plays out a rule of thumb most reversal patterns   patterns fail two-thirds of double bottoms fail  all right so if you see a double bottom two-thirds   of them fail right um in most continuation  patterns succeed because trends tend to continue   so temper your expectations but be open to the  the the underdog winning and knowing when that   what that where you would see that and  and and and and know that on the chart   based on the information the price is giving you  right based on the trend based on recapturing key   levels based on holding key levels on retests you  kind of want to think about it um conceptually in   that way show me the way look absolutely go  to my youtube channel go to the playlists   tutorials these are like these are full classes  like like this is free this is ridiculous you   have these are like this is the i pulled my heart  out i kept a little bit from me and there you go   check it out i think you'll you'll be like wow it  will just get you started it will get you started   and if you're thirsty for more check out the rest  of the channel maybe there's a good way to wrap up   i'm on um youtube at chad's trading that's  where you can get the free version of my book   trading wisdom 50 lessons every trader should know  it's uh i've it's been it's been awesome it's been   i loved writing and i love the feedback i want to  thank you all for that you can find it on amazon   trading wisdom four formats as i mentioned the  free version on youtube i want to remind you i am   on twitter i'm at big chats academic observations  about price trading psychology risk management   you know sometimes uh free association some poetry  and some some selections from my new book trading   quotes that will be out in a few months i am a  founding analyst and proud to be at bitcoin live   i've been doing updates for four years i don't  think i've missed one for three years right twice   a week no matter what's going on i stop and i get  it done we have an unbelievable team of analysts   and a great team of members i mean these folks  have been benefiting from major trend analysis   and you know we knew the top was coming we've been  playing it accordingly and i'm i'm just proud to   be part of it so if you're serious about about  trading learning how to trade please consider   checking that out um so thanks folks thanks for  letting me come on here and ramble uh oh thank   you thank you for that feedback um folks check  out the free version i mean you know thank you   so much check out the free version you don't  have to buy it you know uh let's see thank you   excellent we appreciate that so uh yeah you have  to blow up accounts you have to you have to make   brutal mistakes unfortunately before you kind of  figure it all out and that's the sad part of it so   um folks thank you for joining me here  tonight wherever wherever you are in the world   um i do not do these youtube streams that often  um because i kind of save my mojo for bitcoin   live um you know put you know i put something  into this tonight hopefully you've enjoyed it   um but uh i hope everybody's doing well let's  finish it off here with the dance party let's   go back to an oldie but a favorite  here and uh see what's happening here is that working so   you

2022-07-02 05:48

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