$BTC Friday night hangout 4/29/22
what's up what is up right now what is up worldwide we are worldwide hanging out we're just having fun i know i'm having fun i'm reaching out to you wherever you are in the world i'm reaching out into your living room i'm on your phone you're in your car you're at work we're connecting i appreciate that it's fun doing what i do i am big chad it's friday 4 29 2022 i am just happy to be alive i'm proud to be here happy to be here and uh happy besides to uh join the party so enough of that mushy stuff folks i'm big cheds i'm kind of a chart nerd i'm into crypto i feel like i'm probably one of the best uh trend analysts for bitcoin and i try to that's what i try to do um and i enjoy connecting with you and there's there's a great community out there that's what this is this is you know youtube community but pretty much people know me through twitter and people through twitter i'm on twitter at big chad's mostly academic observations about price trading psychology risk management i am of course the author of trading wisdom 50 lessons every trader should know uh that book has been quite well received i'm honored by that um something i'm proud of actually i have another book coming out in three to six months trading quotes um but this book trading wisdom you can get it for free actually go to my people sometimes people can't buy it uh because of country restrictions stuff like that go to the playlist and i'm gonna do the whole book for free eventually this update will be filed under quick market updates you're to want to check this out this is kind of a growing list i don't really do these that often i have to be in the right mood um but what i definitely want to recommend is bitcoin live i'm a founding analyst at bitcoin live i do a twice a week full market update um you know 365 you know 52 weeks a year i don't i don't miss um and i've been doing that for almost four years and we have a great team i mean this is this is the best of the best analysis um and education about crypto so something i'm really proud of definitely want to encourage you to check that out i did a stream two days ago um and i did one of those where i kind of explained all my tweets uh i do want to think you know market moves explained so i'm not like i don't really want to you know i'm not going to do that tonight i'm just checking with the chat room see how everybody's doing um and just kind of see where it goes from there i don't really have much i want to say um i kind of feel like i've already kind of said it and we're just really at this point just waiting for the breakdown um so in the meantime why don't you just give me uh give me a shout out let me know where you are uh in the world i'm just gonna check in on the chat room see how everybody's doing vermont all right where's that cheddar cheese at in vermont how are we doing over there let's see what's going on what's poppin somebody says what's poppin sheds all right listen we're all in this together right we're um yeah we're all in like the the same sand we're all in like the same sandbox going to become a bitcoin live member i i i'm so happy to hear that listen when you sign up go watch my recent videos and like tell me what you tell me what the time of day is all right this is what i'm saying like check the math go watch like the last six months of videos and and let me know you know what you think um but look i'm so glad to have you all here uh let's see i appreciate your work i appreciate you without you folks like what am i i'm just kind of talking to myself so i appreciate that switzerland good to see you there from earth we're all just on the same planet sharing resources hopefully we're playing uh together nicely so look bitcoin i'll talk about here's what we'll do i'll talk about bitcoin a little bit and by the way thank you for letting me indulge talking about my book tell my bitcoin live all that stuff thank you let me indulge um i think free alpha is really important and i was thinking about this today i've been like trying to and often i like think about a tweet i want to tweet and it might take me like a week a few days or a week to kind of like figure out how i want how i want to say it but i've been like trying to i've been wanting to say there's just a lot of really good free alpha out there free right and it gets better every year and it's like it wasn't there a year ago or two years or three years ago and just the markets matured so like things are different but there's a lot of really good free info out there um so i would i'm trying to figure out kind of uh how to anyway so that's the case you got just take advantage of that be hungry uh take advantage of the free alpha uh why do i have the four hour out here i mean four hours decent if you're watching you know it's not like it's not too it doesn't move too quick like quick like the one hour it's not as slow as the daily it's decent for getting kind of the meat of the move um you know like four hour up you know bollinger band has a pretty good play in the four hour that's why i like to watch it i'll do tweets where i look for kind of like a one hour lower to upper bollinger band move or look for like that one hour pinch right that's how i kind of um structure my coverage and it's based on understanding what the daily chart is doing we've been talking about that um you know kind of everything is like post breakdown right breakdown the failed breakout ma200 rejection the idea of the ma200 uh rolling over and then we've had kind of this recent signal on the three-day chart which is really not good um the idea that that you know the price is now closing and losing this three-day ma200 um that's the first time since 8k really since back in march 20. that's it's a sign of weakening trend right your your whole job is just to study the trend you just think about the trend you know you hold orient your analysis don't think about like whether duquan's buying or whether like michael saylor is doing this and that or whether like some nft like just it's the trend the only thing that really matters is the trend all those other things those are little things that get added into the mix that eventually shows up in the price everything eventually shows up in the price so in the end if you if you narrow your focus if you if you concentrate your focus on the price and the trend you won't be surprised when things happen right you won't be surprised when the price moves um you know we've got the warning signs here so i tweeted everyone i tweeted it out i'm sure many people tweeted it out i'm not the only person who has a you know a charting account three-day ma200 violation right here right a couple weeks ago had some follow-through follow through on that this candle is interesting this is candle is interesting because um you know on the one hand you think about uh you think about like the the topic of like confirmation right and i get this all the time actually in bitcoin live when people ask me you know when you say like with this level you know um confirming this level or breaking that level what do you mean and like the whole topic of confirmation right the whole topic confirmation the trend is your friend absolutely it's like confirmation depends on you and your in your style like if you're if you're just you know someone who's trading i mean that's what you're doing you're watching all day and you can afford to to narrow to that one hour or 15 minute type of thing but if you're just like a regular person who who doesn't just you know give a real job you're not watching you know bitcoin you're not watching like these different pairs during the day um you're operating more on like a candle close basis one or two candle closed basis so like that's confirmation so like what does that mean so what am i trying to say here so for like more more of a kind of conservative method in terms of confirming that you've lost this level when you get this what's called a high wave spinning top april 25th here on the three day chart bitcoin right that's a high wave spinning top or a small real candle body long upper and lower shadows and that's kind of evidence of volatility that's evidence of indecision indecision means indecision on the heels of or just after the prior move which is really a move down so it kind of shows some stahls bare momentum on this candle that's the candlestick theory but on the other hand from classical charity and you've now got two closes below the sma 200 right so you've got kind of a more now an even more conservative method has triggered which is now the second close because that's that's another in classical charting that would be like a higher tier of more of a cautious or a conservative method of confirming a level uh not just one close i want two closes right there's your second close so you have to kind of look at the candle bodies and the momentum um but the price has a clear direction and you see that also with the ema eight rejection you see that with just it you know just everything after this this failed breakout and i've been i've been very clear in my my belief that people are under counting the the importance of the failed breakout they're under they're under including that and they're underweighting it in their in their analysis kind of across the board so this is a three-day chart you can see it pretty clearly here may 200 looks to be losing it daily chart right daily chart you know ma200 rolling over not good so you got to be ready you got to be ready um any bottom any bottom will be marked by volatility and volume you'll know it like when a bottom hits you you usually know it you usually kind of know it and you know the next day you definitely say i should have noticed it i you know it's one of those things it comes with volume and volatility so slow bleed you'll just drift lower and and uh that's kind of what we're doing right now so let me check in with the chat room that was kind of ominous but that's that's where we're at right i mean it is what it is i'm not going to tell you what you want to hear that's not who i am all right uh let's see what do you think about ape all right so like i i don't i don't really know anything about it i guess i don't know but like people who are solid people i follow were like tweeting about it i actually put out a tweet today you know on it my first one um so that's like i'm not gonna tweet something i don't know about but there are people that follow that i that i that understand they're also you know only doing good solid stuff so i'm like okay it's kind of safe for me to kind of look at it but but there's not a lot of chart history i have it on the uh i have it right here and like what am i looking at here's a daily chart like there's no real chart there's no real chart you barely have you know you barely have a middle bollinger like an ma20 so um this is this is like not about the chart this is about uh momentum this is about hype this is about like the energy behind the project and more something like uh they called the je ne sais quoi or i don't know there's something about this but it's not about the chart right now there's no history there's no trend right what we do what i try to do is trend analysis so i'm aware of the mojo quote unquote there's not much ta to be had here um let's see avax let's take a look at avax uh let's do it this way all right let's take a look at that one yeah this one's breaking down i mean it doesn't look good i mean this is this is not good i was actually looking at this early is not good for avax this is not good um i mean minimally it looks like you'll probably test low 50s probably break it so this is not i mean it looks like the uptrend is rolling over i mean you've got kind of that if you just you've got a break you've got a break uh you have the down move and you've got kind of a rising channel and a break from the channel so it's like simplify your thinking this is what you've got you've got to move you've got a consolidation and then potentially a break and a continuation of that right it doesn't look good does not look good um let's see nearest and near is interesting let's take a look at near all right appreciate you folks by the way i want you to know i appreciate you out there hey please hit like please hit subscribe i guess that helps me in some way but i appreciate that if you can um yeah i mean look so near all right i mean if i'm like a dumpster diver like this would be one of the ones i would play like this there's like a maybe five plays i would things i would i would consider playing in this environment this would be one of them you know and the simple reason why is relative strength it has it has held it has had relative strength to market the price has continued to trade above the ma200 um we're revisiting the ma200 we're revisiting this kind of this level that was that was resistance resistance and likely flipped back into support so i actually kind of like the setup here um you know the but you have to unders the market overall has a kind of a a big cloud over it right now so you know you have to keep that in mind but i honestly if i was looking for i was this is something i would play if i wanted to play in this environment this would be this would be what i would play there are very few few setups that look as good as this honestly uh let's see what's going on here xtz i've looked this one a while that'll be interesting you know i mean i just don't like it i don't like it it's bearish i mean what are you gonna see i mean you look at this it's bearish nobody you don't need to you don't need to like study ta to look at this and say it's bearish it's bearish right ma200 rolled over lower highs kind of looks like a descending triangle you don't want to be in this what's the next one uh let's see glimmer i've never heard of that one we'll do a couple we'll do some random ones here and i apologize if uh i don't have it maybe i can't cover it depends i'll try i'll try to hear real quick remember let's see usually keycoin will have a little more history then yeah there's nothing there i don't have enough i don't have enough history in that one uh xmr monero how about that one i need price history all right ta is history it's historical it's trend analysis and it's like it's taking advantage of when the price makes a temporary move against the trend you have to you have to like you have to if you just believe ta doesn't work you're probably not watching this channel but people tell me all the time like oh it doesn't matter it's good it's just going to follow the stock market market it's just maybe but maybe not it like the price will either hold support or not the price either holds resistance or not right it either maintains a high or low structure or not like you just watch the chart follow the momentum and and you apply your risk accordingly and that's the only way to do it everything else is foolhardy xmr you know hasn't really broken down yet it's kind of just sideways i'm not super interested in it it's definitely not something i'm looking to trade um but it's not like it's not definitely gonna it's not definitely bearish it's just a kind of a sideways chart um let's see everybody let's see what's going on pyr let's take a look at that one i know there's some interest in that pyr i mean it's still kind of hanging in there it's still it's still hanging in there it hasn't really um it hasn't broken down but it hasn't shown you know it hasn't really shown any strength um you know this year hasn't shown any strength since it topped off right at the end of last year uh at this point so um what's it been doing i mean it hasn't broken down but there's not a lot of strength so what do you do with something like that it's kind of inconclusive kind of a sideways trend at this point um you know with any of these type of plays you could play the range lows and you say this level either holds or not i'll buy there if it breaks i'll sell if you know if it doesn't i have a decent risk reward so that's like one one way to play it um but it's not that interesting to me uh let's see polka dot haven't looked at that one in a while take a look at polka dot all right let's take a look at polka dot all right i mean it's it's not looking good it's just continued to break down um and like i'd ask you if you're in this like why it's one of those things where like why right um it's just a it's a it's a pretty tough looking trend you've got the price you know you can just see the progression of the breakdown the price accelerated came back failed to hold failed to hold that level failed to hold this level right um you know like like paused and consolidated at the ma200 but it lost to 200 now the 200 is rolling over okay and then you get this structure uh where you form the low and it becomes a clear resistance i mean if you don't sell here if you don't sell here you're just like lit you're just not paying attention you're literally not paying attention i mean it's such a clear breakdown clear bearish retest at a reasonably well established level um at this point the price this is a pivot like you got to study these charts and down trends can reverse right that um you know this is a situation and bitcoin did this where you have a red light turning orange trying to turn green and this is your pivot level to turn green uh much as bitcoin had the ability to do that on the 46k recapture and the ma200 underside retest uh circa 48k this is your this is your chance you know you you kind of start to flip this high and you go long you come back below i mean that's it momentum here is like mega down like this is this is a really strong cell signal a short signal you know you gotta remove yourself from why you think you're in the trade somebody in the chat somebody in the chat room said this or you think it's the next layer oneness or layer to that i don't even i don't even know what any of that stuff means and i don't need to like i'm just so pure trend and it just helps i try to be really good at this and like the other stuff you know that's all debate show me in the price don't tell me like you see it in the price you see the momentum this this is like a nine out of 10 out of 10 sell or short signal on dot doesn't look so good um maybe we'll do a few more here just to kind of see i'll check in with the chat room see how everyone's doing uh yeah i get we could take a look at this one this one we'll take a look at ftm uh take a look at ftm phantom so ftm i mean it's breaking down you you're in a little bit of trouble this one was really you know i've been doing this for a while oh this is polka dot let me get rid of that comment um ftm so i've been doing this for a while and you can tell when something is so hyped up um like there's like a like um like a hive mind about it to where you there's this like critical mass of people who believe that something's gonna happen that it's like when you there's moments in time that that where like the charge clearly turning bearish but you get into these kind of fights with the maxis um you know the chart really started to break down obviously in the loss of the ma200 you see the underside retest here um you see you know similar what bitcoin did uh presume you know with the with a double top here uh essentially um but it was at a different time you know bitcoins was uh uh may right may november here you kind of have something similar um this thing i i sense it on twitter i mean there was some real enthusias enthusiasm about it and like for whatever reason from my experience when i sense that enthusiasm i just get bearish i just get and you know maybe one of these days will be unwarranted right maybe one of these days it's the next microsoft or the next whatever but like when i start to like like what i see people talking and i'm like wow this person really believes like this person really like there's a there's this like um in in art in theater they call it uh suspension of disbelief right into their so there's a point where people are that much into it and i'm like wow people are getting that level up into whatever this is and i immediately get bearish and i don't know whatever it is so that's just kind of an aside that's a little bit of a story that's what's going on with fps ftm looks to go lower big kind of break of these levels you wanted to see it hold on that 130s level um all right we'll do that i see you out there muhammad let's check it out see how i feel we'll go a little bit longer i want to touch base everybody you know i love you out there i hope you're doing well i know life is hard um harder for some of us than others but um i'll try to understand your struggle and pre appreciate you um i mean vet you know it's not great it's not great i mean but it doesn't look as bad as some of the stuff out there i'll give you that but that's like when you're at that when you're at that point of looking at like gradations of bad you're looking at like the versions of like you know it's like what's left over at the rummage sale type of situation it's not exciting you're not looking at this and thinking wow you know i want to like deploy my capital at this one um the ma200 has rolled over it's going sideways it's not straight down you've got some kind of evidence of support kind of in this area so i mean that's some reason for not completely panicking but i i don't like the chart i just it's not interesting to me um let's see all right muhammad i already got your brother i can't do ada and vet um eth all right no problem bright we'll check it out i mean this is it's just really it's clear like when you look at this it should be clear what you're looking at all right um i mean i hope i hope but we all look at these things differently it's it's like muscle memory right you study charts you look at it over and over again and i i'm telling you like like textbooks help classical charting candlesticks cmt helped me a lot i you look at this and you just see i see two parts i see i see the move up and this digestion right it's the move up and kind of the trend break and the digestion you see it and it's just you're at this point where the trend is like threatening to roll over it's threatening to roll over but it could also continue right and you kind of you know here in the past where it's gonna roll over you know we're gonna roll over no we're gonna continue right so it can do that it can totally do that um it's like i've used this analogy before and more so recently it's like the tennis ball right and where it's like you throw up the tennis ball and it's right there and yes it probably will come over but and maybe that's a poor analogy because tennis ball doesn't keep going um but it's at the peak where you're starting to think you know you're thinking okay this is the height of that move um so it could possibly continue but really you think it's probably not going to because you're looking at weakening structure it's weakening trend i mean it is what it is right um you know you go back you see the up thrust part of me let me do that you see the up thrust you have to mark that i mean that's pretty clear right so that that's a blow to momentum like everything is momentum right you got this big blow to blow the momentum move down consolidation right from the move down moving averages rolling over so what are we looking at so the point i make is when you look at this you could see it's a move a great move that kind of got a little bit over its skis and it's probably going to come back lower um it's kind of what i've been saying so i mean i'd be entrusted here for a trade but i'm much more interested you know around there 1800s for a trade 1800s 2k i think i think it's probably going lower because i think bitcoin is going lower um but if i didn't think if i didn't think bitcoin was going lower i'd still look at this chart and think this chart's going lower take a look at aav yeah i mean it's not a great looking chart either i mean you've got the trend rolling over you're kind of drifting lower um not something you're really kind of looking to play um at this point you've got a clear uh you know level that you would want to see flipped for momentum um to kind of to kind of get you kind of back on track i'm going to wrap things up i do want to say thank you i appreciate each and every one of you for watching tonight and spending a little bit of time here with me um i enjoy i enjoy trading i enjoy studying the charts um i got to tell you like when i'm telling you like i got wrecked really hard when i got started and really over the years i made so many different mistakes over and over again that kind of led to what i do today right my book trading wisdom all the youtube stuff um and a lot of it is is just just stupid repeat mistakes so um you know it's it's a long it's a long journey don't get frustrated um and you know one thing i would say is you know you get what you put in so if you're if you're frustrated you know ask yourself if you're actually working hard because it's not easy you know don't expect it to be easy you have to own up to like your own your own um effort level right so that's really up to you kind of what you do with this so you know don't complain unless you've really put in uh the effort and so that that's what i would say hopefully that's not too harsh i'm of course i'm on twitter at big chats um i'm on twitter at big chats check me out on youtube i've got a bunch of playlists that i hope are of value to you uh this video will be under the quick update quick market updates my book which is on tr on amazon for different formats uh the free version is on youtube i'm gonna do um episode 14 soon i've been putting it off i do apologize but i will get it done um check out all the other great all the all the other great stuff i have hopefully you you do enjoy that if you're i will say if you're going to start with any one video go to my educational playlists uh tutorial educational live streams and watch the most recent video it will explain moving averages um you know my methodology my style will kind of make everything help everything make more sense and of course i'm a founding analyst at bitcoin live for almost four years a really you know very soon about four yeah four years coming up um i've been you know twice a week full market updates um i doesn't matter where i am i'm on vacation i'm gonna get an update to those members that those are my people so i i would um definitely encourage you to check that out we have a wonderful team really great team um check that out otherwise listen you know just hang in there um don't be too aggressive especially in a market like this which is which is a really really tough market right um there's no you don't have to worry about missing the bottom right oh what if i you know what if it really goes to 100k look if we get back up above you know 45 46k if we get back up above um kind of the ma200 area you can go long comfortably so you've got kind of a limited window that you'd miss to the upside when you have a lot of potential room to the downside i see scenarios of 30k tested 30k break broken 20k tested tiny 20k broken i've talked about it those aren't like guarantees or predictions but i can see that you know but there's a lot between here and there but bottom line is right now you've got more uh room to the downside than the upside in the sense that you'll know when you're wrong quickly if you think it's going lower and and everything points to that so why you know why fight it why fight the trend just my thoughts um other than that listen i appreciate i appreciate you folks i hope you um i hope you're doing well i wish you fortune i wish you love and i wish you um happiness and we'll talk again soon so let's get that dancing on all right you
2022-05-06 11:06
