$BTC #Bitcoin Long Form Interview - Trader Mayne
hello hello everybody it's big chats it is saturday february 26 2022. heartfelt thank you to each and every one of you for taking a little bit of time of your out of your day to come and watch this video please do say hello let me know in the chat room if you can hear me i want to make sure everything's cool here with the audio before i get things rolling looks like everybody can say i can hear you just fine perfect timing hi from portugal hi from bulgaria folks this is a worldwide thing please let me know where you are in the world um you know step out and say hello really appreciate all the support i love the fact that i can kind of do this at any time i can just reach out and talk to you folks hello from guatemala northern ireland all right we have a really really great guest today uh his name is trader main this is part of the let's get this up here on the screen this is part of the long form uh interview series if you go to my youtube channel go to the long form interview series this will be this is the newest installment this is number six these are um these are unscripted conversations with the folks that i consider to be some of the brightest minds in the space people who really know what they're doing people are really smart and i kind of like to see where the conversation takes us and in that process there's a lot of free free alpha there's a lot of good information you know for you the viewing audience so really excited about that that um you know on my youtube channel my youtube channel as well i will point out the educational live streams if you're really new to technical analysis or even if you're not check those out they'll really help you get started in terms of how to set up the chart how to understand momentum how to structure your trade um as well and of course i am the author of trading wisdom 50 lessons every trader should know their support's been unbelievable for that so you know thank you for that um i'm doing the book for free the whole thing for free i have 12 of the 50 lessons i'll eventually have the whole book for free for you check that out of course you can buy the book if you'd like to it is on amazon kindle hardcover paperback and audiobook look at the ratings i mean that's ridiculous so people are loving this book i'm incredibly proud of that fact i'm of course on twitter at big chats academic observations about price trading psychology and if you're serious about learning how to uh trade if you're serious about technical analysis please do check out bitcoin live where i am a founding member i've been doing twice a week updates for almost four years it's something i take incredibly seriously and i'm just part of the team as well you get access to everyone's content it's something i'm really really proud of so definitely encourage you to check that out our guest is trader main you can find him on twitter at trader main i'll have the links um you know i'll have links in the video description for you to check that out and of course he has a youtube as well he is trader main on youtube i'll have all that stuff linked in the description i'm gonna do a very very brief analysis on bitcoin uh and then we're gonna roll right into our guest he should be ready here in just a few moments uh i'm just going to check in with the chat room everybody real quick seems like everyone is doing okay uk london from malta that's fantastic uh portugal italy ukraine i hope you're staying safe my friend definitely thoughts are with you um germany lithuania look at all that canada mexico algeria austria wisconsin so this is great it's a worldwide thing definitely appreciate each and every one of you so i'm gonna roll right into like i said i'm gonna roll that into a little bit of bitcoin analysis here folks the chat room is moving quick i probably will miss your miss your questions but um throughout the course of the interview i will be monitoring it the best i can and i'll try to pass those questions along to our guest uh so what do we think is going on here with bitcoin um i haven't really done a public video on btc in a couple weeks been focusing on the bcl bitcoin live analysis but from my pro you know my last public videos i really stressed to you how important that 40k level was and i talked about the idea that um if you believed we were doing a bullish reversal here you know vis-a-vis uh some type of an inverted head and shoulders you know your invalidation level triggered when we drop below that uh 39.5 or 40k level and what we can see after it found a little temporary bottom look at that that big dip below the lower bollinger um and that nice response from the bulls and look what happened we had four underside rejections at that broken neck baseline i'm sorry at that broken uh right shoulder so rejection one rejection two rejected three rejection four so what you wanna think about is the fact that if you wanna look for data points on a chart and when the chart is continually rejecting at that level it's telling you that that level is important so we want to continue to focus on that now we temporarily broke above that level and we came back below it right rejected the ma50 and rejected back below so you can consider that to be an up thrust when you have the price rejecting many times in a level and then it comes back up above it comes back up below like that you know that's like a false breakout you definitely want to pay attention to that um you know bottom fishers traders who who really caught that dip on that was a pretty good flush we had a really very big wide range volatility candle february 24th um you know traders who bought that dip they were looking to sell at 39.5 40k they kind of understood that that was the underside um you know that was the underside of resistance and it would make sense uh you know former support turned into resistance and it would make sense that the price would reject there um maine i don't see your brother i don't know if you can hear me but i see you logged in let me know when you're ready to go and i'll i'll get you right there on the stream stream so um i'm just going to slide this folks just give me one second i'm gonna slide that right over and just do one thing here off screen to just have to bear with me one moment one uno momento you are in the waiting room says i'm ready okay don't see you okay all right so we're just going to get started we really have a great guest and i'm really looking forward to kind of seeing what he has to say so that's my sense right now look we want to continue to watch that 40k level if you're not in it um i think you want to structure your risk and maybe go long you know if and when we break back up above 40k that's a nice level to use to structure your risk if you break back up above 40k you can say well i'm bullish as long as we're above uh if it breaks up back below you can say you know i'm bearish below that type of thing in the meantime you know where exactly is the support uh you know is it here in this most recent low is it on the low from from january 24th um you know we're not quite sure yet so we definitely uh you know it's one of those situations where in my opinion the resistance is much uh better defined than the support so i think what you need to do and i've been very consistent about this if you're looking to play kind of on a support retest you you probably want to structure your risk based on something called a spring the opposite of this up thruster the false bull break we have the spring here and we had a spring on this february 24th candle you know it's a month uh just a month after the last time we had this uh you know high wave spinning top outside bar as we had here as well on the 24th during that session we swept below the the lows from february 22nd and we came back up above so we're now back up above uh that february 22nd low so in during this candle you could have gone long on that spring right otherwise you're kind of just free falling as you're heading towards support and it's you know it's not that well defined so you you really want to wait for a spring gives you something to work off of a clear horizontal level and really that's just what i would say at this point is if you're going to try to to buy a dip i would wait for a spring um and if you really want to buy into momentum watch for the recapture of that 40k level i'm going to check real quick to see if maine if we can hear maine i don't see them visually i'm just checking in with him though so i may have to go back to my chart for a minute while he figures it out but um hey what's up buddy i can hear you okay oh perfect oh let's see the is the camera not working yeah we got no camera at this moment it's just frozen on my face uh no it's just black we just got a black screen oh interesting yeah like it's showing there we go now it's frozen on your face but we see you brother i wonder if i get rid of the green screen there we go there we go all right okay what's going on man i'm good man how are you i'm doing really well i appreciate you taking the time to talk to me um i think the last time i had you was like two or three months ago i had you on the banter show yeah those are like rushed this is long form it's i don't have any you know agenda i don't really have any questions literally i just want to just talk man um so yeah thanks for coming once you um introduce us uh introduce yourself to the audience i showed them your youtube and your twitter if there's something i missed you know let me know and i'll make sure to put it in the video later awesome well yeah i'm trainer maine uh i am uh trader lives in canada i've been in the crypto space uh since like 2013 2014 i wouldn't say i knew what i was doing very early on so a lot of times people ask me how long i've been trading yeah i think it's a bit of a fib to say i've been trading since 2013 because i wouldn't call what i was doing in 2013 2014 even the start of 2015 really trading it was more gambling and just kind of blowing a lot of money but that's kind of how you learn sometimes you got to kind of just jump right into the fire and get burnt a little bit and then you start realizing oh losing money sucks maybe there's a rhyme to the reason and i better start learning it quick um so i i would say since about 2016 i've been pretty actively trading uh markets uh crypto forex commodities equities um on and off full time i've been full time again for the last about two years i do have i'm an entrepreneur so i have some other businesses that i run as well but uh during this last bull run i kind of put some of my businesses on the side and was like okay this is you know time to pay attention in crypto uh the beautiful thing about crypto is it's very cyclical right so uh you know there's definitely times where it requires your full attention and there's times where it's a little bit more boring and you don't have to be glued to your screen all day um i post on twitter all day as my account's grown i think my alpha to noise ratio has skewed a little bit more to the noise side but i think that's kind of just what happens is your account gets bigger it becomes a lot harder to share charts and trade ideas when you have a couple hundred thousand people following you because you can't keep everyone happy um i've got a discord uh that i run it's free uh where i you know post charts i've got an education section in there and i've got my youtube as well i've been really pushing the youtube over the last six plus months it's something i've really enjoyed doing i think this type of format talking to people is the best way to share as opposed to you know i can only fit i'm not a good writer as is so trying to get me to fit like a cohesive tweet together in 240 characters is hard um so uh for me to be able to just kind of shoot [ __ ] in video form post videos do live streams that's my favorite way to interact with my audience so really enjoy youtube a lot and uh yeah just hanging out here man uh waiting to seek i think we're at a very interesting decision point in the market here right so um you know we're just below 40k i kind of agree with what you're saying i was watching you cover the charts here i think it's a pretty straightforward bias level you know get above 40 41k i think we go a lot higher um and stay below there and there's a good chance we jump a lot lower so uh very interesting time in the market and i think you know we might see some resolution here in the the next week or so so how do you um you know we can look at the chart we can all agree on like a key level like a 40k a psychological level and the prices keeps pinging it so it's not just psychological it's you know it's it's uh supply right it keeps getting rejected there how do you pair that you talked about you trade equities so i'd love to kind of get into that how you're approaching equities but how are you approaching bitcoin kind of given what's going on with like spx you know not even like what's going on with like rush or inflation and stuff like that you know how are you separating them is it all in one yes when i first got into crypto i was kind of of the mindset that crypto is its own asset basket which it is in a sense but it's its own asset basket um you know it's going to do what it's going to do right it's not going to be reliant on gold or equities or anything like that like it's going to become this you know own use its own currency this one store value whatever it is um as i got a better understanding of markets um you know what i learned very quickly was that crypto acts as a risk asset and it sits in that risk asset basket uh with equities um as a pretty close inverse correlation to the dollar the dollar index the us dollar and it has a pretty close correlation to the stock market uh you know people love to uh post when crypto goes up and the sp goes down that the correlation's broken and then right when when sp goes down and crypto goes down the correlation is back on correlation is not one-to-one and it's also not something that you want to necessarily look at you know on a low time frame there can be periods where the markets are very much in lock step go look at the covet bottom both markets crashed within a few days of each other v bottomed and we're in lockstep on the way up and there's periods where the correlation is very strong and it's a little bit weaker but the way that i look at the correlation is more of a kind of a macro thing generally when the stock market is making new highs and it's in a massive uptrend crypto does very well um and uh you can identify most of the bear markets in crypto by just looking at the s p chart um one thing that i think is very interesting is that bitcoin was created in 2009. you could argue that we've been in the greatest stock market bull market of all time since about 2008 and 2009. we haven't really had a real recession um since the recession in 2008.
um so there is a question to be had you know what is going to happen if we go into a real recession i wouldn't call that coveted crash a real recession right we dumped we v bottom we're back at new highs within weeks um so there is an interesting you know dilemma what are we going to see if we have an actual recession in the equities market uh what's gonna happen to crypto is that when the that's when i think the best argument for decoration happens is when the real market goes into a recession what happens to crypto because if you look at the monthly chart of the s p 500 it's pretty much up only for the last 14 years um so very hard to kind of determine what's crypto going to act like when that environment on the macro no longer exists so i do treat them as correlated assets it doesn't mean one can't go up without the other but i think the general trend has been as long as the s p has been going up uh you know kryptos crypto's in a good spot so does that make you perhaps less risk-averse here with cr with bitcoin like even if we uh you know break over 40k are you going to look at it suspiciously unless we see kind of um you know some strength here back in tech and spy and all that um i think we can go above 40k and go to 60k and still go down um you know i don't think that we necessarily have to just make a new like we don't for me i'm a trader right like yeah making a new all-time high is awesome but like if we can go from 40 to 55 000 and i'm pretty confident on it like that's a payday for me you know what i mean i'm not i think something that i've learned over the previous cycles i've been a part of is i'm never gonna make as much money as the guy who just buys early in the bull market and then manages to sell somewhere near the top and just holds and doesn't really do much but i'm going to make more money on the way back down than that person's going to because they're either going to be sitting on the sidelines or they're going to be watching that money they made on the way up slowly deteriorate if they didn't take any profit once we kind of have that blow off and pull back um i think it's very hard to outperform the market when it's trending straight up right i mean if you look at when we broke 40k the first time we went straight to 60. right like it's very hard to outperform that but when the market is going up and down even if it's in a macro downtrend i'm really good at catching those legs and that's kind of where i make my uh make my bank um but uh yeah i do i think we go to an all-time high i think it's very difficult to say like i don't think the ukraine situation gets better before it gets worse okay um you know it sounds like it's getting worse day by day it sounds like you know they're getting closer to the capital i don't know how that affects the markets as a whole i don't want to be like some you know i'm not pro-war by any means um but generally uh war has you know the fact that the invasion's begun people's argument is okay well now risk is off the table we're already the bad news is already priced into the market they've already invaded so up only from here i don't really like to try and make those kind of predictions i'm a level of level guy i think if we get above 40 to 45 k or 40 to 41k i'm looking at 55 and then i'll make a decision from there and if it looks like [ __ ] at 55 i'm gonna short it and and it's as simple as that i'm not trying to i'm not trying to be like okay well you know we got above 40. so it's got to go to new all-time high i think a lot of the people who you see on twitter who are always calling for new all-time lows or new all-time highs or it's a clout thing right i'm i'm guilty of it sometimes too but people want to be able to retweet a tweet saying that they called it right yeah and then they'll bury the one that you know said the opposite so i'm more like okay what's the next level of interest above this level and let's how do we how do i get involved in the trade to get there because someone telling me we're going to all-time high doesn't actually give me a trade you know what i mean yeah that's a great point i think that has you said a lot of things in there that we could kind of uh pull a lot of different threads there i think it's a trader it sounds like you're looking for volatility you're somewhat agnostic to like the story it's really you just want to kind of have an opportunity to to make some money based on an overreaction i think that's the proper approach and i'd love to little bit later dig down and share your screen maybe not just quite yet but you know you can kind of walk us through um kind of how you approach a trade um maybe before we get there though um maybe let's back up a little bit you know you talked about when you started trading and it was gambling right you just started trading what were like some of the things you were doing that you don't do now what were you know i'd like i think that'd be interesting to talk about so when i got into crypto um it's actually really funny so i have a friend of mine who you know what multi-level marketing is you know pyramid schemes how there was all those back in the i i don't know how old you are i'm 31. so back when i was in my early 20s um a lot of my friends who had just got out of high school or were in university were trying to make a lot of you know some side money they all got involved in these little market multi-level marketing schemes whether they're selling knives for cutco or whatever and so i had this buddy who would always invite me to these dinners right he'd be like oh dude you gotta come to this business dinner and like trust me there's free food and beer and like when you're 22 free food and beer it's like oh baby but you know sure enough you get your snacks and you're sitting your beer and you sit down and the guy pulls up the powerpoint and like three slides in is a pyramid right you know all you gotta do is sign up your buddy and then he's gonna sign up his buddy and then they're gonna sign up their parents the next thing you know you're getting some [ __ ] money and it's all a scam but i'm like whatever i'm here for the free fruit and beer like i'm not signing up yeah so he would always invite me to these things and then this is the guy who told me about bitcoin so naturally when the guy who's been inviting me to multi-level marketing scam meetings tells me that he's found the future of money i'm like yeah okay dude so i didn't believe him initially um and this was when bitcoin was i think it was 2011 2012 so bitcoin was like dollars and i didn't buy it and then it went to 200 and he's like dude these bitcoins are like they went up huge like they're worth 200 per and i was like holy [ __ ] like maybe this is something so i bought a bunch um and i rode that initial bull run from 2013 2014 where i think we topped around 1400 bucks or 1200 bucks something like that i think it was like 14 1500 canadian 1150 or something u.s and so i i saw my portfolio from doing nothing go up multiples because what it is i joined twitter and anyone at the time 2013 2014 if you had five to 10k followers you're like an account with three to four hundred thousand in today's ct to give you an idea so guys like kobe jesus all these guys were around back then yeah they had like five or 10k followers and they were considered the you know actual advice btc rest in peace but i would i would just buy whatever these guys said yeah file coin barbecue coin like like garbage right but they said it was gonna go up and it often times would because everyone's a genius in a bull market right i was early it was like buying it's like i'd say like it's the equivalent of buying altcoins in like september of 2016 before the 20k run like you basically could throw a dart at a board and you were gonna do a 2x right so i spread out all my bitcoin across everything right i had a big old bag of light coin that's where my initial [ __ ] love hate relationship with litecoin comments oh yeah um and i i my portfolios went like this but i had no idea what i was doing all i knew is i was like okay i buy this and i wait and it goes up and i'm rich now so i quit my job i like quit my job i worked at the bank i have an accounting finance background i quit my job i'm like yo mom dad like i'm a day trader now i don't know if you're right i don't work anymore right and i think i turned maybe 20 000 or so at the time into over 200 and at 23 that's a lot of money for me right at the time i was like i don't ever need to work again right like what do i spend money on i live at home like you know what i mean so i uh i quit my job right around all-time high like a month before yeah i've started going down and back then there was no stable coins right you couldn't just go to tether and be out of volatility i didn't but i didn't know anything i didn't know you could short i didn't know leverage was not really as much of a thing what wasn't even really a thing back then there was no stable coins but i i didn't know any i know i could cash out i didn't know [ __ ] and so i just watched this portfolio that i had 10x start crumpling and i was in altcoins so when bitcoin went down 60 70 mile coins went down 90 95 and i didn't know i could sell and cut my losses back to bitcoin i didn't know that bitcoin was the one i really wanted to hold i didn't know anything and so i basically lost all of it even my initial because on the way down i started gambling right like i was literally just trying to buy stuff hoping it would recover putting in more money and i ended up losing money in the bull market which is crazy to think but i didn't know what i was doing i call it gambling because it to me was the equivalent of playing blackjack and not knowing the rules and just betting just because it's fun it's like oh i like jacks that's cool let's just like i didn't actually know it's like okay well if the dealer is showing this i'm supposed to stay you know i didn't even know the rules of the game right so i was burnt like i was burnt i got i went back to my job i like begged my boss i was like yeah please hire me back like i'm not a day trader yeah i got my job back and i was kind of uh destroyed mentally from like the idea of crypto i was like [ __ ] that [ __ ] i hope it all goes to zero it's no different like now when you lose as soon as you exit a short you want price to pump as soon as you exit along you want price to die like it was the same mindset i was like i want crypto to go to zero i hope it dies um but uh over the next kind of six to 12 months after having that experience i was like there's got to be you know i've always been a number as a math guy um i'm like there's got to be a way to predict some of this stuff like it can't be completely random right and so that's when i kind of started my journey into 4x and a whole different beast of its own but i mean at the end of the day it's a chart right and if you consider crypto a currency right uh 4x is no different why is trading the us dollar versus the canadian dollar any different than trading bitcoin versus the us dollar or any sort of cross pair right it's not um but forex is a more mature space it's been around a lot longer so there's a lot of gurus right and yeah i started taking courses right i started watching youtube videos i paid for a bunch of content i found ict who ended up being one of my main influences and how i traded and i started to get a firm understanding of price action between 2015 and 2016. 2016 and i started trading 4x and i'd say
early 2016 i started making some money doing it not enough money to do it full time but i was consistently able to make more money than i lost on a month-to-month basis um so then during that 2016 you know 2017 period i saw crypto crash from where it was when i was all in down to 200 again and then slowly start tick tick tick tick tick and i was like okay well we're back near that previous all-time high i wonder what happens if we get above it um so i started buying i got back involved in crypto in 2016 and if you don't believe me go look at my twitter like i've been on twitter since april of 2014 so you can go see me with terrible chart colors drawing ascending triangles on altcoins in 2013 yeah for 2014. it's crazy but i started just getting back involved and buying and um i did okay in 2017 because i actually had an idea of what i was doing i knew that okay if i buy here and it goes below here i don't want to be in this position anymore and i could cut it like i actually understood what risk management was and these are all things i learned in 4x i didn't learn it in crypto i think a lot of people who are in the space you learn in the bull market right and then you learn some really tough lessons in the bear market i was fortunate enough to kind of do that in 2013-14 so by the time 2017 came around combined with that 4x experience i kind of had an idea how to read charts and i understand risk management i knew how to draw support and resistance because when price is going up the most basic things work sr flips ascending triangles bull flags that stuff works when price is trending really hard in bitcoin the basic patterns for continuation seem to work really freaking well uh and so i knew them uh so 2017 bull run i did well i didn't do well enough to make it i would say but i did really well i did a multiple on my money i didn't lose a ton of money i sold most of my crypto when bitcoin was above 15k uh and i really started posting on twitter um around that time as well and i think where i really made my mark on twitter was in the bear market because i knew what a downtrend looked like yeah people who join crypto they only know up only are we gonna make it right you know the super cycle whatever you want to call it it was the same thing in 2016-17 just different terms every time we went from down to 6k floor everyone thought the next balance was going back past all-time high yeah every time yeah go up to 12k then it went to 6k again get up to about 10. we're going back to all-time high back to 6k and then eventually that bouncy ball broke the floor and we had that final flush right um but i i i was consistently kind of shorting the top and basically i was like guys we're in a downtrend this is not going back to all-time high this is going lower and that's when my twitter started to gain a little bit of traction as well um and uh the rest is history man by the time we hit 3k in 2018 i knew exactly what the [ __ ] i was doing i was like okay we're down eighty-five percent full-time right yeah it's time to shove uh you know ethereum is down ninety percent from all-time high it's time to shove yeah and then when the covid bottom happened uh i did get scared i mean i was watching on bitmex i saw zero show up on the order book as wow over three thousand dollars about zero and you can see all the orders stacked above zero and then our lord savior arthur saved the market and i didn't even buy that second 3k dip um i waited i was worried like covid the world's closing down stock market gaps down like 50 i was like holy [ __ ] but then when we got above 6k pretty quick i just bought back in and i i would i would consider myself having made it in this last bull run absolutely like i don't need to work anymore which is a nice feeling so i mean that's a great start if you see probably can see from the comments people love the story and thanks for for being candid there um i wrote so many questions i have from that um first question when you quit your job and you're the one you came back to did you leave amicably or on the way out were you like peace dude yeah it wasn't quite like that scene where i was like f-u f-u-f-u yeah cool like no it was it was pretty amicable i mean my boss like was right at the end of the day like i worked i have an accounting finance background i have a cpa yeah and my boss was like well why can't you and this is something i tell people now i give advice to them now because i did it i was they're like can't you do both and i was like that i don't need it right but luckily i was able to get a job with the same company at a different branch in a different city oh good um but uh i tell people this all the time do not quit your [ __ ] job yep don't do it don't do it like trading is first of all extremely difficult like to trade full-time people you know you 4x is the worst for cause you see the person with their phone they're in a pool and their phone just has metatrader open it has all these big profit numbers and they're drinking a drink that is not a full-time trader no go ask anyone who trades here full-time they sit in a room they have multiple monitors back lines are closed there's neon lights on them they're drinking red bull at night they're barely sleeping like that's the life of a full-time trader if that's what you want yeah go for it but you're not sitting on a beach with a laptop charting that's not real you're you're more likely to live that kind of chilling lifestyle just investing in crypto yeah because if you're just catching a long-term trend where you don't need to check price every day then yeah you can be traveling the world open up your trading view a couple days at a hostel make sure things are still copacetic and then continue with your travels but if you're like a day trader you're like the the hours you're not working a nine to five you're working like a nine to nine you're working more than 12 hours a day you're always on and if you're not on screen you're staring at this and your girlfriend your boyfriend whatever you have is like pissed at you at dinner because every two seconds you're looking at your phone yeah but they don't understand it's like yeah well i might have just made five grand or lost five grand or whatever and i need to be locked in not glamorous right you see the watches the blah blah blah most of those people you see flexing that [ __ ] yeah they're not day traders for the most part or they're day traders who have already made it and now we're kind of living off the profits of that especially when you're learning it's a [ __ ] grind and i tell people to not quit their jobs because you don't need to um for a couple reasons first reason um you can look at charts on the high time frame people always ask me they're like oh well how do i catch this move if it's i'm like dude okay let's say you work at eight hours a day look at the four hour chart check it before work at lunch after work that's three four hour candles right so do your analysis on the weekly the daily execute on the four hour that's pretty reasonable if you have a full-time job yeah you're not scalping the five minute chart no you know what i mean that's just the way it is do it on the high time frame and then on the weekend yeah you can do your low time frame shift but the the beauty of trading is there's opportunities on each time frame yeah there's going to be less signals on the high time frame but you're going to catch the bigger moves as well right um so you don't need to be on the low time frame especially with a job if you're like worried about not catching moves make your decisions on the daily or the 12 hour or the four hour that gives you lots of time to decide what you want to do and you don't need to be staring at the screen all day you can work your job and then come home and see where things are at also you don't want that stress of needing money to live and having to pull that money out of your trading account because if you have to pay rent at the end of the month and you're not having a great month trading you're going to start chasing trades consciously or subconsciously that aren't there because you're like oh [ __ ] i need to make three grand and to pay some bills right you don't want that you especially early on you don't want to withdraw anything from your trading account you want to compound it right so if you start with 10k you want to compound it to 100 and the worst way to screw up compounding your account other than over leveraging and taking a huge loss is pulling money out you don't want to be trading to live until you have a pretty big stack and you have a nest egg of money to cover your expenses so you're good so i usually tell people to check because everyone wants to trade full-time i get it trust me you want to be able to print money on the internet not have a cost sure except for the market is the worst boss of all um the checklist for me you got to have a minimum of six months i would say better off having a year of expenses saved up so if you make zero dollars you can still pay for food still pay for your rent still pay all your bills minimum six months i'd say a year is better two years is even better you want to have at least 12 months of trading experience where you've made money not just trading experience where you consistently are making money yeah if you just signed up to binance six months ago and over the last six months your break even do not go full time i'm telling like i'm saying like you need like six to 12 months of like i'm profitable i'm making more money than i lose and then you want to have an account that's big enough where the one or two to three percent that you risk per trade is a meaningful amount of money if you're trying to trade full-time on a 10k account one percent risk right is a hundred bucks right so what you make a five-hour trade you make 500 okay well let's say you make 20 r in a month that's only 2 000 bucks that's not enough to live in most major cities right so you need your account to be big enough that the money you make can actually sustain your lifestyle so what i would suggest is keep your [ __ ] job use the money from that job to save up fund your trading and keep doing that until you've done those things built up that nest egg and then built up and compounded that 10k account into a 100k account now when you make 5r which it like a 5r week is really good yeah i think some of the things people have a misconception of about profitability is because it's so easy especially in a bull run to make money trading it seems like it's just falling out of the air like a forex trader if they're able to grind out five six r in a week that's a really good [ __ ] week right because think about it on a 100k account that's five grand in a week you do that two or three times in a month now you're talking you're making five figures a month that's a good living but you need to have that account size to make it make sense and so to get there start small compound your account bigger make sure you don't have that extra like that's what happened to me is like when i was trading full-time early on i was like okay i need money to to pay rent or to to do this stuff so i was chasing trades and i was just it you you need to when i trade every time the money goes into a trade it's gone it's either back worth two three four x what i put in or it's gone it's not like this is my rent money and if it comes back less than what i put in i'm in trouble right because you've already set yourself up for failure with that mindset right you got to be detached from the money and it's very hard to do that if you're not financially stable as is that's where the term comes from don't risk more than you're willing to lose right most people do so uh keep your job r stands for risk or reward it depends um right so 5r right the way i the way i i always say 5r really that would be reward to risk five to one right so yeah 100 bucks my reward is 500 bucks that's fantastic all that there's so many good things you said um what i wanted to ask you is this so i've talked about though you also want to capture account at a certain size so like you know you go up to 100 are you taking out you know you get up to 120k are you pulling up that 20 to get back to 100 because i suggest to people you know if it gets too big you might start to ape up the risk threshold so are you capping that as well absolutely so the way that i've done it because i've made the mistake when i early in this bull cycle luckily it was a mistake i caught early on is i ran up a leverage account huge like huge and i do think it's important to understand that like you need to think of in terms of r that's how i always tell people because if your account's 10k r is let's say you're risking one two percent of trade r is 200 bucks okay when your account's 100 r is 2 000. when you account a million r is all of a sudden 20 grand but if you start thinking if you have a million dollar leverage account if you say well [ __ ] if i'm wrong i lose 20 grand you're gonna [ __ ] yourself up because 20 grand is a lot of money i don't care how much you have 20 grands enough to for multiple months of rent to buy a [ __ ] car like that's a lot of money yeah um but if you start thinking about the amount of money that it is it's gonna make it hard for you to scale up yeah right it's just r you got there just thinking it's arts one r right and you're allowed to if you're aiming for asymmetric risk reward you're okay but i do agree once you get to a certain point for me personally it's right around that one to two million dollar mark on an account i just don't see the need to risk more than 20 or 30 000 on one trade it's just nuts um coming from where i've come from i've secured myself in a way where i don't need to so i do exactly that once i got my account because when early on i had an account i ran it up huge and then i took a couple losses where i was losing like 60 70 80 000 on stopouts and i was just like what the [ __ ] am i doing you know what i mean like i just lost someone's salary yeah on a scalp that i wasn't even very sure i wanted to take so i sized down my leverage trading a lot and now i have an account that i trade and any every month any excess i have over my baseline number i withdraw and i either depending on where we're on the market i would either buy bitcoin or ethereum or i would just put it into stables put it onto my hard wallet and it's off and then that number is just growing growing growing growing um i do have other money that i invest into bitcoin invest into ethereum for long term but in terms of leveraged trading absolutely i have a number that i'm at now where i'm like okay once we get over this much i'm out and i'm back to my baseline and i also don't fund it back up like if i end the month down 10 grand i don't throw another 10 grand in because that gets messy right all of a sudden yeah you get a huge lost streak once it's off that account it stays off there that's good i like that discipline i like that you're both uh wanting to have enough money to make um you know good gains but you're capping it as well and uh feedback's great in the chat room i have a couple more questions about before we get to your ta hopefully like forex um some and i i've traded a little bit but i'm terrible with it so i haven't really gone that far do you find it more difficult to trade than crypto um you know i've heard some people say like it doesn't trend as much like in forex there's not as much trend into it i don't know if that makes sense so the reason i love forex is there's infinitely more pairs and infinitely more useful cross market so i'm a pa like a purist right i don't do anything with order flow i don't do it like i see some of the guys on twitter who i think are great yeah you know who are using order flow entering clark and volume profiles and they're like they're they're watching the order book yeah and that's just like two big brain for me like i'm sure i could learn it but i'm also a believer and like if it ain't broke don't fix it people always ask me like why don't you use this as like because yeah what i do already works for me why make it more complicated yeah and what i love about forex is you can take any two currencies right and then you also have the dollar index and now you can do all sorts of cross-market analysis so if i want to trade the dollar cad so usd divided by cad well if i go and look at the dollar index and it's in an uptrend okay i now know that the numerator of dollar cad is in an uptrend yeah right so that means that the dollar is outperforming the canadian dollar space versus the quantity on that pair and you could do the same and then i could also look at cad jpy and so if i say if the dxy is in an uptrend and cad jpy is in a downtrend to me that tells me that the canadian the common denominator between those two pairs is the canadian dollar and it's weak yeah and i know that the us dollar is strong so now i already have my long bias built in and you can do that with and i tell people with this with crypto too i was like listen if you want to know if your altcoins good don't just compare it versus bitcoin compare it versus ethereum um right because if your old coin is up trending versus bitcoin but down training versus ethereum you're better off in ethereum right right that's it and people don't understand that cross market analysis i was like all these are two assets btc usd is not bitcoin it's bitcoin versus the dollar right that's why if the dollar is rallying we often see bitcoin decline yeah and vice versa um so i i like 4x because there's all these different pairs there's always opportunity it's very very um strict in terms of seasonality timing wise like crypto for three months it's gonna move at the new york open 6 a.m pst if you're not on screen that's when the move happens and then as soon as
you start waking up at 6 a.m right guess what happens then the market starts moving at three in the morning and then it's gonna do that for a few months and then it moves in the middle of the [ __ ] day and it just it does there's no rhyme or reason it's open on the weekend forex is closed on the weekend the times of volatility are the new york open and the london open primarily so you can choose where you live when you want to pay attention and i know i have a strategy that is solely based on the london open i watch price action going into london i look for a fake out of the range effectively yeah and then i try and catch the trend of the day and i could be on screen for two hours and i'm done i love it whereas crypto you can't really turn off no 4x if you want to if you want to uh take a vacation go ahead your account balance doesn't change whereas if you take a vacation and bitcoin drops 50 while you're away and you're holding bitcoin you're down right in terms of dollars a lot you can't really unplug the same way interesting um so i i i definitely uh i definitely like uh forex for that kind of stuff it's just a more mature market yeah i do think it trends like i think that people don't they see these like one or two percent moves in 4x but yeah 4x most exchanges you have 100 to 500 times leverage okay and yeah yeah a two percent move is actually huge in forex right right they have these crypto blinders on being like if it doesn't go up 10 in a day it's [ __ ] useless right same thing with gold people like gold barely goes up i was like yeah but if you trade gold with leverage on any sort of exchange gold going up four percent is a monstrous move right right so um i just think there's a lot you could do with forex i also think it's a great learning environment for people in crypto because there's so many charts with so much price history it's a great way to back test really hard to back test bitcoin because you know all the levels because you stare at this yeah when you're like i wonder what happens when it breaks 40k you already know a big handle goes to 50k so it's really hard to not in your mind be like okay well i'm looking for longs if you really want to back test go pull up the cable the euro usd scroll back to 2009 and just start marking out levels and seeing if it's working and what you're doing makes sense because you don't actually know the price action so um but the pa works the exact same i personally like forex i trade it every single night i check the london open and i see if there's just an easy setup i might take two or three trades a week but that's all i really need i think that's that's smart too you know i some of the best traders maybe only take a trade a month too right because they're they know what an opportunity is versus just like a boredom trade so it sounds like you're you're um kind of comfortably sitting in your in the pocket you're in a nice little pocket of control with how you're approaching the market yeah i told people when we before we had this when we were trading at 42k and about 3150 on btc and f respectively we we had that move to 45 and we kind of had a lower high forming and i did a video and i said listen like a lot of people are telling you along right now because they want it they think this is the next leg before hire and i said we have a very easy bias level at 45k i was like above there we go 10 to 15 higher and below 41 we go 10 to 15 lower so why force a trade in between if i know that if one of these two conditions are met i'm gonna catch a meaty move and all it takes is that if you're able to short 41.5 down to 35 that could be your month maker absolutely that's it you don't need to take another trade if you size that properly on a decent sized account that's more than enough money uh that you're ever going to need on a monthly basis and that's what i tell people it's not about catching the bottom and the top everyone wants to say i bottom ticked it i top ticked it i'm interested in catching the meat of the move and i'm interested in getting in when i have some level of confirmation so if the move is 20 but i'm only catching 12 of it but i knew that when i got in my probability of being right was way higher i'm totally fine with it there you go folks you i probably can see now why i've been recommending maine on twitter guys really knows what he's talking about um i'd love for you get your screen ready i'd love for you you know when you're available maybe um give us a sense of your style of ta how you're approaching it um but if you don't mind start with give us like the last two or three months how we got here in bitcoin and then kind of what you think we should look at going forward absolutely all right let's see here uh people love your streams people love the story how do i share my screen uh should be in the middle uh you see the gear sign settings got it okay show advanced option now this is virtual background camera audio all right on the um the stream yard link oh share there we go okay share screen all right let me know boom beautiful all right everyone can see yes sir now if i use this little pen tool here does this show up oh yeah okay cool everyone should get this called epic pen especially if you're a streamer what is it okay app epic yeah so it's this little thing here it's free so you get a pencil you get a box i think i've seen burb use that a line and what's nice is you just hit click delete because what i often do is i'll draw the stuff with the trading view pen yeah and then i'll hit delete and it also deletes all my sr and stuff and it bothered me immensely so this was a great solution all right um so let's start high time frame um i do think that this is one of the weirdest cycles we've seen right i think a lot of people are a lot more accustomed to the this is what everyone was waiting for for the top this right everyone wanted to see the blow off top yeah and then bear market right right so when we finally had that that blow off top type of move i don't know many people who thought we were going to come up and effectively retest all-time high again and and go a bit beyond right um but at the end of the day um you know for us to go into some sort of crazy super cycle or whatever to me it's like i don't really care like we had two moves right that's 1500 percent and then we had another move that did 150 from low to high like there was a ton of options to make money in these two big legs up i think what a lot of people have trouble doing is looking at the bearish scenario in crypto because everyone wants things to just go up but i'll kind of mark charts up from the monthly here and then we'll zoom down in right into like the nitty gritty we can get on the inter day but starting at the monthly what jumps out at me immediately right is the run above this high in the failure okay yeah this being the last down candle that led to this move up i would call this an order block some people would call this demand right and then in terms of sr below here right because effectively one thing that is nice is the monthly technically hasn't lost market structure yeah technically still in a monthly uptrend the problem with that is people are like well we're still in an uptrend on the monthly it's like that's true but this leg can be negative 50 percent on the monthly note that looks like that looks like when people say i told you so legend like it's going to go up and then you'll cry and then like they they say buy here and then they say i told you so here forgetting that this is a 50 drawdown right right but the thing is is with monthly levels monthly ranges everything's bigger right and it's the weekly ranges and levels are going to be bigger than the daily and so a perfect example of that is here people will be like well monthly support held i'm like it absolutely did but if you bid this monthly level at 37 are you prepared to hold for a 12 drawdown before the monthly closes in hopes that it closes above there if you are great right but some people are gonna buy the monthly level it's gonna drop ten percent they're gonna freak out and puke only to find out the monthly closed back above their level right but looking at the monthly those these are the three most relevant levels i think uh well let's i'll give you a four here now no one wants to see these i want nothing to do with these levels but they are relevant because if we do get below 37 and hold below there i'm pretty sure we go to like 25 there's a little level here on the low time frame but i'm pretty sure we come into this seems like the most obvious retest area right back into here we don't want that to happen let's all pray that it doesn't happen but you have to be prepared to anything there's a little level right in here see 23. if i go down to like the daily or something i think it shows up this little consolidation right here yeah yeah but i'm not really interested in buying that to be honest with you like i would much rather buy lower i'd rather buy a reclaim of the lows but we'll go back to the high time frame so yeah we made our all-time high we came down came up again we swept the previous high closed below this is literally a monthly swing failure pattern you could trade this on the monthly how do you enter an sfp when it runs above you enter on the candle close your stop goes above the wick and just into monthly support you almost have a two-hour trade there pretty damn close i wouldn't have traded it like that but at this point you have to be cognizant this is in november right if you zoom in one more level this still gave you some time to get out above 55k when that one had already closed as an sfp yeah so you can see here those levels that we marked out how relevant they are so we marked out the previous all-time high we had that little consolidation below there and then we ripped right broke above this level ripped was that 14 yeah 14 exactly so this is the all-time high close this is the all-time high wick and you can see how that capped this rally and then started this one that monthly level you can see it's just this consolidation here right before the move up and we came in and we tested it and we're potentially putting in a higher low so there is some promising signs here at monthly support that we could be seeing a reversal i don't know it's too early to tell in my opinion but what i want to look at first is how do we get down here and what were people doing up here who were buying to me this cell setup is the exact same as this one so if you look here at the weekly i'm just going to delete all these levels for a second if you look here at the weekly we have this wick traded above back below broke market structure you need to be self-conscious into here yeah right this is trader sd calls it a deviation right but whenever you are coming up whenever you're in an uptrend if you have an sr level we're in an uptrend and we trade above the level and then back below boom why not look for a short because your risk is defined yes that's your this is where you're wrong so here i'm wrong above here so why not look for shorts and if we go higher great you're wrong yeah get in along because if we do this now great now you're long biased again and you took a one-hour loss it's not the end of the world ye
2022-03-01 15:18
