$BTC #Bitcoin Long Form Interview - Koroush AK
good morning good morning folks thank you for coming very heartfelt very heartfelt thank you i appreciate each and every one of you for coming here today today is january 13th 2022 if you could give me a little shout out here in the chat room make sure you can hear me okay i want to make sure everything is looking good good morning everybody i'm just checking the chat room appreciate the time my time and i appreciate you folks you're busy you're taking some time out there in the world whatever you're doing so thank you for taking some time to come here and spend some time with us we have a really great treat today let's jump right into this we're doing um this is part of the long form interview series i have karoosh ak today he's a really uh a fountain a fountain of wonderful information here's his uh twitter page here's his youtube page he also has a book he recently put out we're gonna kind of go over that with the man himself uh you can find me i am on twitter i'm at big chads i want to remind you some free stuff if you go to my youtube channel you know you're just getting started you don't know you don't know what to make of all this and um especially if you're new to trading go to tutorials educational live streams check out that playlist that will get you started that will answer a lot of the questions um that you have by the way what's the song name the song name is church of eight wheels so check out the tutorials i am of course the author of trading wisdom 50 lessons every trader should know i'm doing the whole book for free check out the playlist i've got 10 of the i've got 10 of the 50 uh 10 of the 50 so far so check that out and this is part of the long form interview series i have two so far one with uh with crypto bourbon with big chonus and now with kurosh aka the man himself um the book is on amazon kindle audio hardcover and paperback and of course check out bitcoin live where i'm a founding analyst the best in class educational platform for crypto uh i'm gonna bring on karush in about five minutes what i'm gonna do real quick i'm gonna read to you from the book give you about two three minutes of bitcoin and we're gonna roll right into the interview uh let's see i'm just checking the chat room everybody seems like they're doing well great to see you here i love dancing you know we like to express ourselves dancing is fun lesson 25 fight the fomo and this is something um we can kind of think about right now with bitcoin right where it is so it's easy to feel left out in this kind of climate seeing everyone on twitter going nuts over plays you are not in stay patient don't let yourself get caught up in the emotion and stick to your plan be patient be careful and choose your plays wisely fomo stands for fear of missing out and it's something that is difficult for even the most veteran of traders to avoid so like what is that why is that important so and we're talking about bitcoin right now we're that's why we're here and the really patient traders they bought there on that sub 40k dip they bought when the price recaptured 40k or maybe they bought on that kind of um kind of confirmation when the price was able to recapture those initial lows right there the lows from january 7th or 8th or maybe even the top of the channel here at 42.5 you had a bunch of spot a bunch of opportunities to get into bitcoin but like what do you do now if you're here in the middle and you have fomo you do nothing you wait for always wait for the next proper setup if you can't get that that initial entry where you can really clearly define your risk because you're close to a key horizontal level then wait you know fomo messes up your entry point starting the trade out on the wrong foot and often leading you to cut later for a loss right so you want to think about uh you want to think about your thinking will trading wisdom be an apple i'm actually in the process of porting it to apple ibooks so give that some time but yeah so forward messes up your entry point you want to always ask yourself like am i fomoing in here or am i executing um a plan am i executing something that i've i've looked at ahead of time and has a good risk reward you know ask yourself can i clearly define my risk at this level will i know how quickly will i know if my trade idea fails because when you enter in the middle of the channel when you're just following in it's really hard to define your entry point and define your exit point which is really the most important so you know in that chapter i just talked about it you're having a tough time trading you're losing a lot of money and then all of a sudden you see someone talk about a play and you just jump into it without doing any research so fomo will uh really get you started out in the wrong direction let's just jump right in what do we got uh five six minutes in let's bring in kurosh let's bring in the man himself hello hello everyone i'd love that dance man that was such a great intro thank you man i gotta say that those are the moves you taught me i've been watching your videos i'm just trying to copy you brother i don't know which videos you've been watching definitely not the youtube ones but no yeah we'll have a conversation about that after absolutely i wanna i wanna thank you a heartfelt thank you for coming today um you're very popular on twitter i read the comments people love what you do you put up really nice stuff so let's get this started um people never heard people who've never heard of you why don't you maybe briefly introduce yourself and talk about a little bit of what you do um and then if you don't mind later prepare to share your screen so we can kind of look at that too when we do some ta later yeah i got the bitcoin chart up right there ready to share and talk about um thank you for having me on uh nice to meet everyone in the chat right now uh i will be reading the comments and right now i can already see people are familiar with the channel they know about kim editor-in-chief of market meditations uh so uh who am i what do i do i've been in the crypto space about five years and uh i started off just sharing trades because it's a lonely profession and it was fun to share online i noticed at the end of 2017 most of the big popular accounts that i thought were um oracles that knew everything going on in the market just disappeared and uh i thought hey my training's still going okay i'll share a little bit and i just live grew an account from i think it was 30k to 50k which is you know not not bad for a two-month period and people liked it they followed me and i've been going since about a year ago i started taking everything hyper seriously and got extremely involved into the space uh on the building side working with lots of different projects uh launching my newsletter and podcast and uh right now my primary focus is going to be the newsletter i really want to build something that's going to be a gateway that can bring thousands maybe someday millions of people into the crypto space help educate them and uh navigate through all the great and terrible things we have why don't you tell us a little bit about that newsletter what is it like what's the format of it how can people get access to it oh thank you um i'd love to so the newsletter is called market meditations uh that's just market meditations you can find it on twitter and uh substack how it works is we release six free newsletters every single week and uh what this is is it exists to be your one-stop shop for all things crypto so uh i used to just be a trader that means i'd step on uh look at the charts and um use technical levels to make trades this was very effective for a while but i noticed myself reaching a cap and i know there's plenty of people that don't but personally i found that i couldn't get uh above a certain level of proficiency and i've seen people around me doing much better i spoke to a few people which i advise everyone do never get arrogant in where you are um i got a little arrogant because i was from a mathematics background and i thought oh there's too many data points nothing you can use besides the technicals that'll really work but a lot of the people that were doing really well were following the news events following what was going on in space and really keeping a pulse for overall market sentiment and specific news events and i i put together a research team i'm like okay guys listen i'm gonna hire you and your job is to keep me up to date on absolutely everything going on in space because i personally don't have time and they did and it really skyrocketed my win rate i was doing much better in the markets and i was finding new opportunities that had absolutely nothing to do with trading at a much faster level yield farming nfts and all sorts of uh different projects and narratives in the space and i thought hey i could definitely turn this into a product i mean i'm getting the information anyway why don't i just turn it into a newsletter so i spoke and that eventually became a newsletter and it's evolved a lot since but six times a week for free you will have access to everything going on in the markets and i think you'll really help whether you're a trader investor or just someone who wants to keep up to date with this world changing technology that sounds pretty amazing man um that type of uh work ethic i feel i feel lazy listening to you talking like that like six times a week wow uh i better step up my game um and that sounds really comprehensive as well and uh it's interesting you cover all those things you know nfts defy and stuff like that uh it's the kind of market where you can choose your own adventure a little bit you know it's a big big ecosystem and you can be a ta guy you can be an fa guy you can do that yield farming and the nfts um you know like how do you decide you know how do you decide what to do especially if you're new i mean do you want to kind of explore that a little bit yeah i'd love to great question really really great first question um crypto space is one where there's too much opportunity and it's rare i've been in a few different sectors before coming to crypto and uh having so much opportunity at your disposal every single second uh makes it really difficult to know what to do because uh you i mean to take example back to when i was trading those at one point where i uh developed a really strong system uh that uh over a three month period had a 90 plus percent hit rate and this is amazing like for any system i've had i knew this is a bit of an isolated period i think i've got a really good read on the trend and this system is just working really well so i wasn't even sleeping you know like i had alarms that would go off seven times a night where i just get up go take that trade and um it gave me insomnia for two years so it was a terrible terrible decision but the point i'm trying to make is just because the opportunity exists doesn't mean you don't need to take a step back and holistically analyze what taking that opportunity is going to do for everything else you have so to bring it to crypto say uh you're really passionate about nfts and you think you're good at uh reading hot trends what people are going to be interested in what's going to be cool or not um really good at assessing the strength of the community then you might say oh this is an area i could really specialize in it's similar to trading limited edition clothes like yeezys and stuff if you've got the skill set to detect those you probably can do well in nfts and you start doing really well you make a bit of money and then you notice oh d5 that looks like fun guys making ten thousand percent apy and then you dive into d5 but see that works initially especially when the opportunity is new but if you look at a period of time longer than one to two years what ends up happening is because your attention is dispersed you will eventually lose market share to someone whose attention is hyper focused you're not going to be able to compete with the person who's all in on nfts and your margins are going to decrease your edge is going to slowly disperse so you really need to assess hey if i stop doing nfts right now and i go to d5 am i really doing everything i possibly can to benefit from this opportunity right now and have i reached the point of diminishing returns what's the point of diminishing returns well that basically means you've reached the point where you're putting so much into this that every extra one unit of energy you put in doesn't really give you that much more results once you comfortably and honestly get to that point that's the only time to start moving to a new opportunity and one more point i'd add separate tangent is when assessing an opportunity you really need to look at both yourself and the market so firstly how big is the market is it trending and do i have uh is this an abundance of opportunity so if i grab x market share relative to x market share somewhere else is it going to be big for example uh nfts right now are a lot hotter than d5 though there's a bit more market share to be captured over there less true now but if we were to go back two months it would be very very true so assess the size of the market and then look at your personal skill set as well and you can determine the probability of success and the size of the success and then figure out the say expected value of that opportunity from that expected value being the probability of success times the opportunity uh the size of the opportunity i think it's a very interesting way to look at it um it's also very analytical too i mean is that is that like an instinctual approach that almost sounds like a math formula that you're laying out and a proof um you know like if you're new you know where do you go where do you go to start you know because like i've been in this in this space for a while and i've never even messed with nfts but if i wore i know that would take me some time to even research the mechanics of it and and all that stuff so you know like if you're brand new we get a lot of people who are brand new you know should they should they start trading or maybe you think it's uh more value and um just holding and yield farming and stuff like that like what are your what are your thoughts on that these questions are fantastic yeah uh so the best place to start it can be overwhelming to see so much and i i know i gave my analytical answer but maybe it's difficult for someone to even come close to assessing the size of the market or the potential opportunity right i mean the best place everyone should start is um i think before trading d5 nfts or any of this you need to know how to set up some sort of basic investment portfolio uh and what does this mean this means basically any income you make any money you make you can funnel it into a machine that's going to somewhat guarantee growth this means very diversified reasonably low risk and without any assumption of uh knowledge or skill over the market because that's when people start so uh what are examples of this a portfolio of say like index stocks uh bitcoin maybe ethereum as well and some other stuff depending on your personal risk tolerance now i'm not going to give financial advice here but if you want to learn more about that there's a fantastic book i'd recommend it's called a random walk down wall street really good book it will teach you the basics of portfolio management and that's a good starting point for people so start there and then start diving into anything that interests you like um sorry for shelling the product but check out the market meditations news that every day we share multiple hot things happening in the space you don't need to read every single one anything that catches your interest dive into that rabbit hole down that rabbit hole and let your curiosity run wild really cultivate your curiosity because i mean if you're not curious about it what ends up happening is you need to expend a certain amount of willpower every time you go then learn about something and if you don't have any natural curiosity then the cost of willpower is going to be absolutely huge that's what makes people's lives miserable so you don't you need to find the stuff which you're naturally curious about dive down that rabbit hole and start learning more and more about it um so i guess that would be my advice er with regards to that it's really interesting you know the the concept of natural curiosity and i feel like a lot of people in this space maybe don't have it they want to know a lot of people are looking for like a messiah you know like who can you know plan b right someone who can predict months out like people want to turn their brains off and just hit a button they want to know like what the answer is and so there's there's a clear delineation between those folks who do have the natural curiosity who do learn who kind of self-empower themselves and then there's a whole group of folks who just want to follow a call they just want to know know what the answer is and um i think it's great you're encouraging people to be naturally curious um well i i apply this sorry for interrupting i apply this strategy to social media in general where like yeah we have to compete with people who are trying to sell you that get rich quick scheme that easy messiah answer of hey these x altcoins are gonna go 1000 x this month so buy them so what i try to do to counter that is i will use that content for thumbnails for to get people to click and then as soon as they come in yeah hey i know you're here for 1 billion x altcoins but yeah i don't think those exist and no one knows for sure what i will do is share some strategies which may help you spot them or learn more about them so yeah i just thought it was a very interesting point everyone wants that uh easy way that easy answer um that one click fix no one wants to go to the gym diet and work out they want that secret new amazonian passion fruit that makes them lose 10 pounds in one week great point i think someone just asked the name of your newsletter again market meditations that's correct uh yes yes that is correct um yeah we got to play the game you know you're right you know we don't we have to play the game a little bit to get people's attention and um you know i i think that's okay it's the question of what we do when we have their attention i think we have to be good shepherds um you know so that so they can kind of stick around and spread the word and so i enjoy doing that and i gotta say so far i'm really impressed with what i'm hearing from you um you mentioned that book the walk down was the random walk down wall street yes a random walk down wall street so i mean are you are you do a lot of you do a lot of ta right classical charting stuff like that is that your approach technical analysis are you more yeah for four years almost entirely i did only technical analysis and built my systems automatically from that and then it's evolved a lot over the past 1.5 years how did you start with the ta were there any textbooks you read was there any kind of influences do you want to talk a little bit about your your ta journey yeah well um it was actually just scouring the internet and finding any p bits and pieces of information i could how i generally learn is uh i like to see the end result and then dissect the end result and learn backwards from that okay a lot of people learn very difficult but different differently uh than i do they like to start maybe from the beginning take some big uh uh books like uh there's the great technical analysis book but i but i think it's called by i think john murphy uh that's a good starting point for anyone who wants to start from the ground up and i mean i've released one myself which breaks down the techniques and strategies i've used over the last five years recently you can find that on my twitter page just pinned to the top uh but yeah so how i learned is i actually like to watch analysts online and then see what stuff they do consistently and repeatedly and when that consistently worked i would dissect it and try turn assist turn that into a system so for example if i find a social media account i would follow them very very closely and i've noticed the the repeat patterns between their successful calls and then i'd break that apart and say oh so this guy actually every time rsi goes above x point and a resistance breaks i noticed he was making the exact same call now he did a lot of other stuff but it was that one repeated thing i picked out and i'm like oh let me try use that and see if it works and just doing that again and again was uh the most successful thing for me learning ta and then once i had a couple building blocks it completely reversed it all went like okay i don't need any more outside information now i'm going to completely build from the ground up using my statistical background so i did statistics for four years at university and bringing that to training allows me to to so my system development process um people who follow me on the channel know is so what i would do is uh i would lock myself in a room for about four weeks and about eight hours a day manually back that back test non-stop a system on as many different time frames and charts as i could manually record every single result and uh see if it would end up being a good system or something i'm going to throw away and trash and oftentimes new ideas would come through that process but uh i would go through this once every four to six months where either i had a great idea or um some of my previous systems have stopped working because that's another thing i've found with trading is um market conditions change a lot and specific markets have nuances to them and the nuance is where you make a lot of the money and you find your edges and uh any good trading system needs to continually be adapted and evolved to an ever-changing market that's a great point i think we have to always adapt you know something's working until it doesn't so i think you you speak to several important things there you speak to taking an idea testing it learning from it i think that's really important and then not getting married too much to an idea you know flexibility is incredibly important you know um i think the phrase is strong strong opinions weakly held you know if you get more information you're uh you're willing to change your opinion let's talk a little bit about what's going on with crypto right now i'd love for maybe to bring up a chart i'd like you to maybe if you don't mind generally describe um you know the last couple months of price action and then maybe talk about a philosophy or a general approach um in terms of where we are right now with what's going on let's get that set up folks uh let's see i'm just checking the chat room people are really happy everyone's really happy that you're here uh let's see great questions chad's great answers by kurosh let's see says that this is awesome cruz great compliments so far newsletter is market meditations while he gets that ready uh that's the book he mentioned a random walk down wall street the other one was that ta book by john murphy i don't have the name off the top of my head he also mentioned that and great show here we go we're gonna add that to the stream i see your screen brother perfect okay so uh let me give my general bitcoin update we'll start that always a good place to start with the market now this is where my analysis currently lies um so let's start with like let me get sorry just sorting my screen out one second no rush no rush we have all the time perfect okay so uh good great place to start with the markets is always just taking a look at i mean we're on the daily the trend and um there's multiple ways to determine the trend one of the easiest ways where you can instantly visualize it is taking a look at moving averages now we've got three here i'm pretty sure this is the 100 the 30 day and we've got the seven over here and uh you just look at these movement averages and you get a clear idea of the trend of the market obvious uptrend over here i don't think you need moving averages is that a simple seven or exponential uh that is the simple seven over there um okay and yeah so we're taking a look at these uh free moving averages and it's going up coming down so this is the uptrend over here here we see the inflection point now alongside the uptrend you can also take key structural levels so we have like a high there low there high low and then it starts to lagging a little bit so people will have to bear with me i've got too much security software on this so we hit a we hit a high over there and then uh it breaks this first key level over here and then it's really bad when it breaks this one over here because you can see the market is no longer making new highs and uh holding higher lows that's when it switches now at this point we start entering a short downtrend into a sideways trend over here into hope of an uptrend and then back down which makes this entire period more just like a weak sideways trend with a short period of up and now a short period of time so that kind of rounds up the recent price action we haven't really been in a strong uptrend since we broke this level over here and strong is relative to say crypto now what i'm looking at is how do we trade the current conditions and where are we right now i like to use bitcoin as a metric for the entire market you can see i've marked out key levels and zones over here okay you get rid of some moving averages now we no longer need these okay so what do each of these levels and zones mean well we've got around the 50k level uh a key resistance right now now this is an important resistance because 50k psychologically really important and we can see just structurally this uh medium short term downtrend since november uh we've got our recent lower high over here so this lower high over here is also confluent so really really important level over here if we get above this we can start shifting a little bit bullish again and we can make some bullish arguments a little bit bullish or a lot bullish i feel like that'd be pretty darn bullish if we were to clear that you know so i'd love to say pretty darn bullish but it also depends on time frame like if we're looking at um short to medium term time frame pretty darn bullish but uh if we're looking at more of a macro level i mean we've gone above it twice now we've gone above it twice and i absolutely hate seeing this sort of move where the price gets above comes back down goes above again and we think it's going to go to valhalla and then it absolutely crashes back down this just looks like a potential final exit pump uh which is not what i think it is but what i'm saying is that's why this isn't my omega bullish level where we start calling 100k again um then we've got the neutral bullish stone just below this neutral bullish is kind of like a high risk area where you're like okay i feel bullish because of non-technical reasons now on top of the technical reasons i might go for a higher um a strong risky play over here um and i'll explain what each of these mean in a little more detail at the end after going through them we've got the 40k level over here psychologically really important and a key structural level of this previous medium-term uptrend we had from about july to there and then the levels continue going down afterwards um once we lose 40k if we lose 40k i expect the next bounce to be 36k that's where i expect like a great buy opportunity yeah so now uh how can we tangibly use these bullish neutral bullish neutral neutral neutral bearish and bearish levels i think this is quite beneficial to anyone who's trading so bullish means favor longs over shorts neutral bullish means you can almost favor longs over shorts the neutrals mean play the ranges neutral bearish mean favor shorts over longs and then bearish obviously means really favor shorts overlapping so that's how i like to use these areas they give a slight edge and you can also use them for the macro market as well so when bitcoin is in a neutral zone you expect certain behaviors from altcoins now they are decoupling quite a bit like it's nowhere near and chad's you've been here longer than i have it's nowhere near the market is nowhere near as tight to bitcoin as it was one two especially not three years ago um but it still applies without a doubt bitcoin is king so uh in the neutral zone you can expect more isolated pumps in specific sectors of alt points they tend not to all go up together aggressively and all go down together aggressively relative strength yes precisely um in the bearish stone you can expect most altcoin pumps to instantly retrace back down and just pretty much be exit liquidity and in the bullish zone we partying chad's everyone's their brother yeah so that would be my update hopefully it's helpful to listeners so it's been a big move right a big 2021 a lot of the gains in well it's 20 22 now but you know those games came early in the year and as you've kind of expressed really well here we just been consolidating that big move really for like the second two thirds of the of uh 2021.
um you know give me your you know i always like to say a true chart i'm going to put you to the test here brother a true chart technician can uh illustrate both or can articulate both the bullish and the bearish thesis so maybe why don't you give me a bearish thesis on a higher time frame and then a bullish thesis and a higher time frame as well let's go uh so bullish feeds this right now first thing we want to see is break of this level but realistically let's go hardcore stronger opinions 50k when i see 50k break here i suspect we go up and potentially test wouldn't go to 60k but i'd say this level here come back down and then continue up afterwards and then we've got a couple levels of individual resistance to get through after but i think once we get above 50k we can pretty confidently say that the most those levels are likely to break and then that leads us to another strong uptrend but what i've been doing recently is i wouldn't look at it isolated in just the technicals what i want to see is when we get above this 50k level and start breaking levels one after another is there a strong narrative to drive the market and narratives is something i've been looking at a lot recently because when there is a really strong narrative everything seems to go well alongside that and that's what a lot of my trading has been focused on i favor charts just like we can use the market structure bullish bullish but neutral to help skew our bets for example we take more longs over here we take more shorts over there i use narratives in the news now to skew my bets as well if i know the metaverse and play to earn gaming is hyped as hell i'm going to favor longs on those plays a lot during those periods so what i want to look for when we get here is what is the narrative that's going to drive this to the next level and i'd like to see something as big and exciting as d5 or nfts which really have been huge movements or even um a new strong layer one narrative for those who don't know what any of those are um feel free to look up uh nfts i think most people know d5 layer once a little more complicated basically when d5 and nfts came out um the market had a huge demand for d5 and nfts they were like i want to use this now but ethereum's too darn expensive it's like 500 a transaction and people can't afford to pay that so the narrative was wait a second people aren't going to wait for ethereum to upgrade they're going to look for other solutions now and that's why we went hard on solana i had a really really strong solana thesis based on this and we traded that aggressively favoring longs over shorts and it did really well so what am i going to look for in the bullish case over here now the case no one wants to hear or the bare case uh it really doesn't look good but my bad case is below 36k i think if we drop below 36k that's the final level i'm really looking at i see us coming like it's crypto down to about 20k is possible uh like once we lose this 36k level it's not even a 50 drop to get to 20k and it's not unheard of in crypto now we've had a lot of guests on our podcast that share this alternate thesis which is the um this time is different why is this time different because crypto has more real value whatever that means people are actually using these protocols and systems so judging on past data i think 20k is absolutely possible in the bare case but uh going on what a lot of experts are saying in the space though they have their own reasons to not promote bearish narratives is that because d5 and nfts have real world use cases people uh crypto is too established right now to seize those sorts of crazy drops let's just talk right a lot i want to ask you a question though and a technical question it seems to me you're favoring that 36 k over 30 and i would i would look at 36k as kind of a mid channel and the 80k rectangle an 80 day rectangle i feel like there's more data there's more um data points at 30k right 30k is where we had the spring or the false bear break so when you say like we break 30k we're looking at 20. i'm wondering why you seem to be favoring that 36k or that mid channel area more than the bottom of the channel or 30k so the reason i'm looking at the mid channel is uh because if we break this area here i'm going to be extremely cautious and already looking for narratives so the way i'm trading right now is if i see a strong narrative here versus if i see a strong narrative here it's both looking pretty terrible for the market so technicals alone i would say at the 30k level that's what you need to be looking for but if i'm in the neutral bearish zone and i've got non-technical reasons skewing me towards favoring a short right then that's why i'm looking at that 36k level more because as soon as that 36k level breaks i am switched on and waiting for my trigger or my strong conviction to either take a short or more likely just take risk off of the market because generally i don't take that many shorts these days anymore especially since i've transitioned away from uh intraday trading more towards positional swing trading so what um and thanks for answering that uh i think you're kind of speaking to momentum you there'd be some some serious momentum if we drop you know drop 36k we'd be approaching 30k with bare momentum um so i pretty much you know generally agree with that i think that's a really measured way to look at it um i'm curious your thoughts on the concept of you know like the eth btc pair and the idea of bitcoin tops in some ways can be um viewed ahead of time by looking at the rest of the market like ethereum started to run and then it was litecoin really litecoin marked the top like november or whatever 9th or 10th uh this cycle and i continue to watch you know the eth btc pair so give us because when the ethereum's outperforming bitcoin you know bitcoins not going to be making new highs so do you kind of have a similar approach where you're kind of looking at ethereum as a strong data point to give you a sense on bitcoin or is that not factored into how you approach the market uh so that's definitely factored and it's okay i'm going to use some visual aids there um so what i feel used to happen quite a bit is we have uh btc at the top determining the market and then i think most people at this point have seen the money flow chart where it goes from btc to ethereum to large caps mid caps small caps but what's happened uh over time is the markets matured and there are a lot more categories now so sometimes btc goes to eth and then afterwards it continues down to other large caps and then it will go to medium caps and then it goes to full caps but that used to be really simple you just look at the market cap and that's what it is but these days people have so many more options as to where they can flood their money so uh medium caps might not be all the medium caps it might just be the medium caps that fit within the narrative and story of layer ones or just d5 or just nfts and then instead of flowing from large caps to medium caps it goes from defy to just lending protocols to really really um early stage lending protocols or um what happened recently is the market literally went from btc to eve to nfts to play to earn gaming to really really new recent play to earn gaming opportunities so it used to be very very easy to predict but i feel as the market matures you just need that extra you know we're speaking about the nuance you need to understand those like nuanced details to really navigate it effectively um again if you aren't a pure technical trader which really does have its place but as you can see i i don't do pure technical trading right as much anymore the technicals are just a component a very very strong component that i love of a wider system i i i'll be completely honest with you um i'm impressed with your knowledge of what's outside of the technicals i've really just buried my nose so much in the book and i often say everything outside the chart is noise and if what you're telling me is important you know i'll see it in the chart and there's a little bit of me that really does want to learn some of this stuff but like i literally don't even know what a level one is or level two like i i just like because i but i really want to be good at what i do and that's what i try to do so i enjoy these conversations and i enjoy the fact that there are other excellent uh teachers and communicators like yourself out there kind of opening up the door for people to learn about those things i think that's pretty awesome um i'm going to quickly check a couple questions ahead for you ahead of time see if there's anything that i want to pop up so you know let's wrap up soon but let's talk about a couple alts maybe you mentioned seoul earlier you know what are your thoughts maybe on the soul chart do you want to kind of just give us that and see what we've got there um i'm going to just quickly stop sharing so i don't lag on this transition let's get this up are you a practitioner of brazilian jiu-jitsu yes i am oh it's awesome very cool huge fan recently started man recommend it to anyone such a good physical and mental exercise i started working out recently as well and it's hard to have a healthy mind without a healthy body and that's a whole nother hour podcast right there oh brother i'm telling you um is my screen shared right now yeah oh it's my fault now we're ready now we're ready okay perfect so we've got a couple levels marked out but let's start with the fresh chart for this one okay so what's happened with solana well we've seen one of the craziest uptrends i've ever seen um in december 2020 it went from 0.45 to a high of 260 where i started to get interested was around this 10 level over here that's where we formed our thesis that uh hey this actually looks pretty good this might start going i think it was just above the 10 level before this high break over here around the april point and then we got very very high conviction bets uh higher up as well so uh why were we bullish on solana i explained the narrative behind it that layer ones were going to be strong also coupled with a strong belief in the ftx team as well uh i mean they've got so much capital backing them that it's almost too big to fail as long as the entire market doesn't fail as well and now uh going into nexia we're at this point where you can see bitcoins neutral that means looking at the market we don't have that high conviction everything's going to succeed so even if we lose it's fine um bet so right now we need to be a little bit more careful and structurally and i'm sure chad do you see this from a million miles away we're at a pretty key level over here at around 130 and we really don't want to lose this uh otherwise structurally it looks pretty terrible because we formed this uh lower um higher low over here and this was the last higher low of the uptrend and just like bitcoin after that we had one final wave up and then this is crashed down uh in a pretty steady channel um yeah like this is without a doubt a steady downtrend like there's another way to look at it and uh this downtrend has led right into this uh 130 level here so what i really don't want to see here is up test the resistance and then back down because that's going to be pretty hideous and a probable break so going into this year i don't think it's wise to take personally just for me um people please just use this as educational content i don't think it's wise to take any sort of position uh until we get at least above this 170 level over here why this 170 level well i mean ideally we can even get above 200 but that's quite far away if we were to look at the previous things i had this would be the neutral bearish stone sorry the neutral bullish zone over here where it's higher risk and you want to look for confluence outside of the charts so this is where we've got neutral bullish okay and then above this 200 level then i'm going to be very confidently bullish again key psychological level breaking and uh this is where it's a bit different to bitcoin you'll notice i had a bit of hesitation with bitcoin when it came to that 50k level but the reason i see solano a little bit differently is it's a lower market cap coin at the point where this is neutral bullish or bullish we're likely going to see confluence with the rest of the market and as a higher beta asset it's likely going to fly past these previous resistances higher beta essentially relative strength it's it's a higher performer right and will thus continue to likely perform better going forward precisely it's going to it's going to be easier for solana to break through multiple levels of resistance relative to bitcoin uh so that's why i would have my bullish level for solana above the 200 being both key psychological level resistance and uh structural level is here on this downtrend you can see that's the top of the channel test over there which we want to see break so that would be my play with solana maybe take it a little easy over here um cry if it goes below 130 and you've got your neutral bullish and bullish levels why don't you pull up pull up a 200 ma for me if you don't mind on this chart no no forgive the lag this is why no no we're really happy to have you here it's uh it's kind of you to spend your time so thank you perfect hit right there so yeah i'm watching that too you know you've got that concept where you have a strong trend that takes has that much time in between ma200 you know touches and usually you're going to get that first bounce off of it so i'm i really agree with your analysis i also think that ma200 that's a long thesis you know that that entry there so and you can pretty easily define your risk as well obviously if you you drop below it you could get out um so i mean do you factor do you do that type of uh moving average trading as well are you really just looking at the zones uh combined with kind of narratives as you put it so i um have boiled it down to right now i use the 100 and the 30 primarily and i also like the seven either moving average or sometimes exponential average because um i actually use that as a tool to get confirmation on level breaks uh the smaller moving averages and then uh the 100 tends to be enough for me to determine the strength of trades for positional and swing trading and um i haven't really done too much testing on the 200 because i haven't really needed to okay you've been really generous with your time do you mind maybe do one more alt and then we'll wrap it up and uh yeah people really loving to hear your approach i think it's refreshing to um hear the kind of measured way you're looking at things so um people ask for luna maybe do you want to do luna does that or do you have one in mind and i haven't been looking too much at luna but are we good looking at fresh charts cool um let's go for which is a good luna chart like binance luna's fine usd ust no maybe not that one that's funny there's so many pairs and so many exchanges it's like the space is so complicated let's go for gemini okay this one here okay looking at luna are you trading luna yourself chads i definitely do you know what i what i what i um encourage people to do is pick really the five six seven strongest charts and just play those and luna has that relative strength so um you know like when when bitcoin did the sub 40k dip and recaptured it i immediately looked at the charts of relative strength and i traded some of those so luna's like in that group so definitely yes taking a quick look at you luna i actually like what i'm seeing on the chart so key levels i immediately want to highlight i'm seeing we had a very strong uptrend first sign of us going down over here and we've got this key level around this 80 level which is breaking you could take it down to 80. that feels wrong given the data points of that structural level there so i take it a bit higher sync it up with the 100 moving average and right about where we are now key test so i see a potential breakout play right over here um with your first resistance being a little while away at 93 over there and if we draw that what are we looking at about 10 percent so we've got a potential 10 move over there looking for the breakout play there and i i mentioned earlier how i like to use my uh moving average for confluence on uh confirmed breakouts of levels so i guess i'll share that with your audience as a nice way to do this final analysis so take a look at this key level here notice guys i i don't use too many tools i try to keep my analysis really simple and logical uh what we have here is a move up to this level and we haven't seen any real retracement if you take the fibonacci levels like this is a strong move why is it a strong move because it hasn't once really retraced past the 0.236 level the entire way up
um except this one over here so this is a really strong move into our key resistance that's already a good sign the next thing i want to see for confirmation is if we zoom in here take a look at the moving average don't wait for the chart to get above the moving average level sorry don't wait for the candle to get above this 82 level wait for the moving average to get above it and that's where you have confirmation we take a replay over here stops you making premature moves in the market uh let's take the 75 level here so uh i don't think this is as good a black breakout play as the one we currently have but uh instead of instead of waiting for that initial break you can actually wait take your time be patient wait for the price to come up above it and then if it comes back down go for a re-test plate if you want to play aggressively and you've got a lot of um you've got a lot of space above the chart so here i wouldn't go for that non-re-test breakout entry why is that because well above here there's not that much space so there's no clear invalidation because besides this point here so we're looking at a 50 50 trade so in this instance i would only take a retest if it were to happen so that's an example of the strategy and how you can use it hopefully helpful helpful for people so here again when you see the moving average come up great time to either go for a re-test play or a breakout play and that's what i'm looking at on luna and then going very macro it's a powerful powerful uptrend so if you get that psychological break above 100 that is your if you're a patient trader and you don't want to start trading intraday or short term swing trading you want to take a strong position wait for the market to be strong and wait for that breakout above 100 this is a very very powerful chart for in that regard that's fantastic you spoke to a lot of great strategies being patient uh you know looking for confirmation and then you know confirmation is different for everybody but that's an excellent way to do it with the moving average some people use candle wick one closed two closes time interval percentage move there's a million ways to do it but hopefully the underpinning of all that is a patient method i think so many of these new traders they're failing because they're not waiting for retests you know they're just seeing green they're jumping into it and it saved me a lot of money with my trades man i just wait i i wait for that deep dip in the uptrend and because i'm not a good trader so i need a good entry you know i need a really good entry to help me because because my habits are so bad you know um wow this has just been unbelievable i had some expectations i had high expectations because uh gooner talks about you so so well but you've completely exceeded uh the expectations i had so i i definitely really appreciate that i'd love for you to tell us again about how people can find out about you and your newsletter and the stuff you do um love to hear about that again chad's i i've been on a lot of podcasts and um some good some great i definitely putting you up there was a great interview of really thoughtful great questions great dancing um absolutely fantastic episode i had a great time your audience is also amazing thank you for the great comments guys it's like it's really nice as i'm doing this and i see you guys saying thank you or you enjoy certain things awesome audience hey guys if i've provided any value from you the most important thing i want is not for you to follow me on any certain channel or my newsletter it's to remember that the crypto market has an abundance of opportunity right now uh be patient if something sounds too good to be true it probably is so take care when uh with your money and uh if we're right if we're right about our crypto thesis all you have to do is be here for the next five to ten years and not go to xero and you will succeed so take your time we're all gonna make it oh i love it i love it folks so i'm gonna i'm gonna wrap things up i'll show your you know your uh twitter page your youtube all that stuff but um i wanna wish you many blessings i hope you have a fantastic day and i really do appreciate you coming today buddy thanks a lot it was a pleasure um chad's have a great day audience thanks for having me bye everyone okay wow wow that was pretty that was pretty uh stupendous that was amazing that is kurosh aka he's on twitter at karoosh uh i took way too long to start following this guy i'm definitely gonna have to check out his newsletter looks like there's the link in his twitter page market meditations uh he's got the a book he just put out an ebook i mean this guy is just it just seems like a fire hose a free alpha so you want to check that out really great stuff his youtube page of course kurush ak uh you definitely want to check that out what a what an honor um so folks i am on twitter i'm boring i'm on twitter i'm at big chad's academic observations about price trading psychology uh the book i've mentioned it before i read from it briefly uh in the beginning trading wisdom 50 lessons every trader should know on amazon kindle audiobook hardcover and paperback the free version is on youtube please do consider hitting like to the videos hit subscribe go to the the playlist trading wisdom i'm doing all 50 i'm doing the whole book for free uh you know a new a new one every three or four weeks so if you're patient i'll eventually have the whole book for you for free if you're brand new to trading you don't really know you know left from right up from down moving averages indicators support and resistance you need to watch the tutorials educational live streams that will really help you get started and of course i am a founding analyst at bitcoin live i've been doing this for more than three years twice a week long form full market updates i'm incredibly proud uh to be a founding analyst and to be part of that team it's just it's an all literally an all-star team and somehow i'm part of it so i'm really thankful for that so please do consider checking that out you know bitcoin we're above 44k 44k feels good we've done a lot of analysis in this video i think um you know bulls are due for a little bit of a relief rally here but they've got some work to do to really turn momentum around so if you're looking for more analysis watch the videos i put out recently over the last few weeks and hopefully that will help you uh what an honor what a great time we had today i want to say thank you for coming today and hopefully you'll come for my next stream i'm going to finish it up with a little bit of dancing but until then i really hope you folks are doing well i wish you well and we'll talk soon all right i love you guys stay safe peace out
2022-01-19 21:51
