$BTC #Bitcoin can bulls regain momentum? Quick market update 3/11/22
all right all right all right big chats in the house and you're in the house too it's me and you together we're just having fun what is going on we're trading crypto we don't know what we're doing but we're trying we're having fun that's kind of the whole point that's why we're here march 11 2022 i'm just thankful to be alive i'm thankful for you i'm thankful that you've decided to take some time out of your day to listen to me i have some thoughts like talk about the crypto market um hopefully share some of my experience hopefully that's of value to you i enjoy kind of the give and take um let's just check in here with the chat room we're a worldwide thing what i'd like to do is kind of just hear from you where you are in the world we're seeing what's up with canada we have brazil in the house we have hello from earth we are all we're just we're just intelligent animals living on this planet and that's just what it is so no doubt planet earth uh missouri nice to see you and ciao from florence italy ciao to you um i learned a little italian in college i i don't want to embarrass myself so in any way thank you for coming good to see everybody go big chats i like those uh dance moves the best dance thank you so i kind of just like to dance i like to to make it kind of fun listen trading's really hard it's really hard to learn how to trade it's really hard to to trade it's hard to teach how to trade like the whole thing's hard um so you try to learn from from that and take notes along the way let's get right to it i'm i don't want to get i don't want to ramble too much i have a plan tonight i want to go over a little bit of the price action uh since the last time uh last time we did a video as a reminder i am on twitter at big sheds academic observations about price trading psychology risk management i am the author of trading wisdom 50 lessons every trader should know the feedback's been unbelievable 4.8 out of 5 stars i really appreciate that it's resonating with 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analyst at bitcoin live something i'm incredibly proud of i've been doing that for almost four four years twice a week full market updates i will not miss an update update no matter what i'm doing and it's a great team so i really encourage you to check that out if you're if you actually really want to learn how to trade something i'm incredibly serious about let's check in with the chat room friends see how everyone's doing poland portugal austria singapore poland virginia uh what's going on gold coast australia that's wonderful to hear in bolivia india i mean look at this just like a regular guy a guy like me a guy like me i have all these people all around the world look at that texas canada uh tell your ride tell your reday all right okay san diego singapore it's unbelievable so panama city we're all in this together right we're all in this together so what a life right what are we doing here with bitcoin so what are we doing right um you know are we above are we below 40k i mean that's how i'll kind of orient my that's kind of how i'll orient my analysis right and kind of if you want to understand why i say that and what my posture is just just go back um and like just watch my prior videos i'm pretty consistent with my method um but like if new information comes in i'll change i'll change what i think right i have no opini no problem saying i was wrong here's new information and that's what it is you use the best available information you have at the time you recognize the trend uh bottom line why am i in such a low time frame here let's go that so the daily chart i mean the bottom line we're in a corrective phase you know we understand what happened last year 2021 we understand 80 day rectangle the equilibrium uh high low high low break higher high uh double top with the higher high and then the double top um on this on the right you know on this other um peak here with its own up thrust the outside bar the follow through the rollover the loss of the moving averages the mean reversion bounces right i've done this i've done this now many times so i'm not gonna support your patients we are you need momentum and like any bottom i've talked about all the stuff i've talked about any bottom you have to start with a potential low or high and you need some type of a lower high break you need kind of momentum that's all that's all that table's been set so i don't need to do that right now but i'll kind of try to try to walk you through what i've talked about on twitter recently and so we talk about the weekly candles interesting i think this is interesting i thought what could i talk about i talked about the idea of the weekly inverted hammer and kind of the concept of an inverted hammer and the myth of the inverted hammer is a bullish reversal candle i've never understood it and it doesn't you know it's one of those things i've read it and it's and um and understand interestingly enough the hanging man if i invert this the hanging man is also a kind of a misnomer a hanging man is a bullish con is actually bullish 59 so you take this inverted hammer supposed to be a bullish reversal like what's bullish about this candle because it goes against all the other japanese candlestick teachings that we understand both from theory and from practice you have you have bears rejecting higher prices you have profit taking you have you have a chronic in this in this in this case you you have let me just get that in this case you literally have a chronic inability to close above the eight ema and you go and this is a weekly chart you got one two three four attempts like there's nothing bullish about that further inability to close above the ema eight anytime you stick your head you're you're more you're in war and that's a stone wall and every time you stick your head above like one of your buddies getting a head shot that's what that is that's the 8 ema8 you haven't that's momentum you haven't the bulls haven't been able to recapture that so it's not a bullish candle it's a bearish candle it's a small real candle body it's an attempted bullish bounce and it's context this this inverted hammer comes after kind of this uh evening star with the shooting star at the ema eight the drop the spinning top all that good stuff right so it was it's not a bullish candle it's this isn't a good candle right um what does that matter it just means like you need to understand don't get excited and don't because we all kind of listen to other people we all have our own we all decide like who we listen to and the different voices we listen to it's almost like a council we have all of our own like council of advisors right the people we follow and twitter or social media or friends or whatever people who help us like get a good sense of what's going on and it's important to understand that people who are kind of pointing to that as bullish are not understanding momentum are not understanding trends right it's important to it's important to be selective with who you pay attention to there's a very clear delineator between people who understand momentum and trends and two don't i try to sometimes i feel like i have it sometimes i don't but that inverted hammer for sure before you get excited make sure to read this and what do we have the inverted hammer is supposed to be bullish reversal but it acts as bearish continuation 65 percent of the time all right checking in in the chat room folks um i'll allow you to um read that for a moment while i just get caught up um i do want to say thank you real quick let me just say i do want to say thank you there are a lot of messages in the chat room i'm not going to see them it's just me i don't have a team i get all these like random emails from like groups and like your team i don't have a team it's just me right so i don't see your messages but i appreciate them i'll read them later all that good stuff um and on twitter if i miss your your um your comments i i say it's not i'm not ignoring you i just don't see it but um i do appreciate that so we have that inverted hammer on the weekly chart so that's on march 6 we're going to go to march 7th so what does that mean what does this mean chad so i get a lot of you know this is an opportunity for me to explain and there's a whole uh there's a whole a scale of people who kind of understand what i'm saying right from those who completely don't understand to those who completely do and then what does this tweet mean and so you know i offered that's why i offered the tutorial for you for you to watch and other ways to understand what i'm saying one age one hour rejected where it was expected why is it rejected where it's expected you know this is a few days ago but you want to understand like if you're trading low time frames and you you probably are finding yourself buying right here and getting kind of caught up and enthused um right at resistance and then getting stopped out later as you're buying into momentum and you have to understand uh where's that tweet i could find it um it's not that important basically it's it well it's important but i need to find in this moment uh basically said that if you want to go long wait for a dip if you want to go short wait for a rip and so like if you want to go long here you're you know you're better off trying to kind of buy either at the lower bollinger dip or in the confirmation of momentum break when you kind of break that lower high but like buying like right at resistance usually going to get burned and here it's rejected where it's expected because it's a lower bollinger to an upper bollinger move and that's just kind of a standard kind of a price oscillation within a corrective channel and you're in a corrective channel and you're digesting all the prior moves down and you digest those moves down and within the within that digestion phase you have kind of attempted bounces that nine out of 10 times will fail at kind of key levels and it's just standard and you follow it you understand it right and especially when you go to lower time frames you can kind of see quote unquote how the sausage is made right so you get that 39.5 so later on in the picture when we get to kind of what's going on right now you're understanding that like when bitcoin breaks 39.5 here a couple days later the fact that it's unable to hold it that's a signal you always understand that when a level is recaptured when a level is flipped but but then unable to be held like that's a big sign of momentum like you're a detective looking for momentum clues here okay it's rejected now we're further understanding that's a key level right that's a march 7th so what happens next um so then we get on march 8th right rising with equities and approaching key tests again so um i guess one hour daily let's see what's going on here maybe go a little lower we'll try it out here so all right so that was that i showed you here to here i showed you here to here that was in that prior one right there we just kind of looked at this move and that's you kind of have the same thing again except here you get the spring right i think i tweeted that out we have a potential spring where you kind of lo you know we break a low and you recapture it and boom then you're right back into that level so i think that's the level you can see that it's not too complicated right generally right there in that area right so when you when you break it you want to see it hold right you want to see it hold we came back below we rejected we'll get to that but you always pay attention to when when a level is established and then not held after it's flipped like that's a the sign of momentum in the other direction so rejected where it was expected equities rising uh and rising with equity so bitcoin started to rally and in part here we go btc running a rumor phase of executive order order tomorrow's news so if you remember um there was right here that's that's a pretty nice little pump we started to rise because like i guess the executive order was leaked and it was seen as dovish right or not uh kind of harsh you sure do a lot of tweeting absolutely uh it's fun it's a dopamine thing it's like i enjoy it but i i feel like i'm adding value and it just i challenge myself and um you practice i'm just trying to almost micro specialize in what i'm doing um and i it's working so i'm gonna keep at it and i but i appreciate that appreciate you watching um let's see all right so in any case um we were rising right we were rising on and this is how i kind of understood it verizon that the reason this is important is kind of the by the rumor the cell the news and so the implicit in that tweet is i'm thinking this move is going to unwind at some point so when you're when you're getting really excited here uh when you're getting really excited here especially because you knew the following day that it was coming out that you have to be careful don't get this a lot of what i do is i am preaching caution because like it's really easy to get carried away and it's predictably easy to get carried away in in that kind of cycle of these pumps and i showed you earlier in that one hour lower to upper move and you kind of get excited right right at resistance it's human nature it's hard not to get excited at resistance and to buy that pump rather than to buy the weakness in the pump um so we're rising right and um basically here this is a clue right so japanese candlesticks work really well you use it in concert with other things as well but of course we have we have a clue here so uh march 9th here 1h outside candle after an advance right just an observation march 9.
so what does that mean so oh here we go one h and there it was so that was this candle right there like how good is that signal right one h outside bar after in advance right there one inch outside kindle after event what does that mean it's not japanese candlesticks that's actually classical charting right but you it's in concert with after in advance near the upper bollinger and it's a sign and it's got the little up thrust as well let's get a little up thrust right and you kind of understand you've been rising and in taste it's an anticipation of this news event so like if you're trying to figure out i mean this is all like almost like trading i'm showing you like the lifeblood of the one hour chart over like a week period and you kind of understand how it moves in these lower time frames also understanding the larger time frames and i've done that before the weekly chart the ma50 the ma200 right i'm not going to go into that now but i think it's interesting to kind of look at this and you see that clue that one h outside bar and so with that 1 8 outside bar leads the 4h tweezer which is a japanese candlestick signal of course uh 4h tweezer top right let's clean that up a little bit 4h tweezer at upper bollinger band notable forty two two three five i mean that's that's just like textbook this is like this is out of a textbook without question look at that note and you've seen these tweets where i say candle progression note the candle progression you have the marabozu the large you know not not exactly clean shaven with the lower with the with the shave and bottom and top but more or less a marabozu with the open the clothes basically a big green candle with no wick a mega chad candle whatever you want to call it smaller body smaller body smaller body okay upper bollinger it's a little bit too fast too soon boom tweezer top right tweezer top upper bollinger band you know ideally you'd have like a lot of resistance right here so you'd be stalling a lot stalling at a logical level i think resistance in my opinion is actually not that well defined from that 40 you know two to 46k level i just think given that momentum of how fast it moved in that period of time it was a kind of a pretty potent candle signal notable upper bollinger band and then boom what do i see there it drops so what happened right those are the two that was the tweezer we were just looking at right that's our tweezer right there and then we get the follow through and the tweezer boom right back to the pocket right back that key support right around 39.5 uh 40k and get the outside bar 4h outside bar after a drop and it's a high wave spinning top the volatility candle is kind of um it's just a pausing it's a it's a it's a candle that will no matter what it tells it makes the trend that's enforced like it checks its game it makes it's like let me see your id okay cool you keep going but you still have to pass through the checkpoint um it's a speed bump it's a it's a no doubt no doubt about it speed bump here it is right we're kind of still ranging um in that area but i lean bearish on my interpretation because we're below 40k um so i'm you know i'm i'm still bearish in my interpretation but now that we've got this outside bar i'm still open to the idea that kind of that you know maybe maybe you know bears are running out of juice um but both bulls have the bulls need to kind of uh regain the momentum so bears like actually don't have to do anything um because you're slow bleeding right you think about momentum if bull bulls want a sharp drop you get a sharp drop you get volume you get a resetting of the of the supply demand equilibrium and you kind of get that v bottom you can do if you start your double bottom you get that first trough you get that first drop and then maybe you get a second one but you need volatility because the slow bleed doesn't do anything for you it doesn't doesn't get you that bottoms you need volatility i'm ready for it i'm prepared for it we're below 30 we're below 40k means we can probably test 30k if we can test 30k right we can break 30k we can test the 20k area we could drop below the 20k area and panic people and maybe test the top of those prior highs before we broke out right so i'm ready for all sorts of scenarios i'm ready to buy the ma200 weekly i'm ready to buy a 20k i'm ready to buy kind of if it drops lower but i want to see it happen quickly i don't want to see a slow bleed right a slow bleed to the ma200 weekly we'll probably lose it i'd like to see a sharp drop and a bounce off of that i'd like to see recapture the weekly ma50 those things are all kind of still they're still there that's the bigger picture and meanwhile we're still trading in this kind of long rectangle we had the 80 day rectangle back in july we've talked about that we have more or less a 65 you know 70-day type of rectangle action going on but bears have momentum um bears have momentum there's some momentum and they'll still have momentum until we flip 46k right so that kind of sets the table that's how we're getting there and then what do we have what is it today the 11th just a little bit of light low time frame candle weakness at key level be careful we had a news pump about like a softening of there were some like um were ready for talks or some type of you know pump that like everything was running and btc was running with it but there was candle weakness there was low time frame candle weakness right let's see uh what is that the four hour the one hour i was actually watching the 15 minute because i was trading it here we go i was right there right here low time frame candle weakness and we had that high wave spinning top and you had these kind of upper shadows these kind of dual shooting stars boom boom that or that's a spinning just a high wave that's just a regular spinning top but here look at those upper shadows after the advance lt feet ltc low time frame right so that's what i'm saying ltf low time frame candle weakness at key level that was right at 40k so it's like don't buy that pump like get a stop buying that pump if you're gonna at least you know drop to lower time frame kind of understand what's going on the rule of thumb is you go to lower time frame when you're at a key level right so that's kind of that's the way you do it low time frame and here we go all right if i had to guess uh 40 chance we see sub 30k in the next month yeah i mean why not right like it's both bulls have to do something like like bears are moving here bears have momentum um and it looks you know i'd say you know and it's one of those things where you don't put probabilities but you know we're just having fun here right just me and you right just a couple friends talking i'd say i mean it looks to me like 70 chance we test like the low 30k um and then if you test it i mean you get a pretty good chance of breaking it given momentum trends tend to continue doesn't mean it breaks it right away but you know hopefully i'm wrong right but i'm ready i'm ready to kind of um i'm ready to change my opinion we break above 46k right but if we drop i'm not going to freak out i'm going to kind of understand we have pockets of support we have layers of support here on the way down and we'll have to kind of switch to lower time frames like i said when we're at those key levels um and just kind of see what happens let's check in with the chat room for everybody i appreciate that folks we've got a lot of love here in the chat room i appreciate that um all right that's that was good that's what i wanted to do i did what i want to do i want to remind you can find me i am on twitter at big chads i enjoy interacting with you i enjoy hearing your feedback um and what i try to do is put out academic observations about the price um trading psychology risk management you get a lot of just i'll look for things that stand out i'll look for things that are worth sending out i know people some people have me on uh notifications i want to so i try to respect that so i'm trying to give you key moments in time you have a day job so you kind of understand uh what's going on so i try to just cover what's important appreciate that i am of course on youtube i appreciate your likes and subscribes on this video um the book is on amazon uh it's uh four formats and i have a free version on my youtube channel the playlist trading wisdom check out the first 12 episodes are available available i will have the full version eventually go to tutorials these are great i'm i'm getting ready to do a new one um i'm in no rush this last one was really good i'm very quite proud of it um but i'm i have some notes i'm preparing for the next one the next one one's gonna be fun and that should be in the next month or two um so look forward to that check those out uh check out my interviews i just had a great interview with bob lucas who is also a founding analyst at bitcoin live the best in class educational platform for crypto i'm really proud of being part of that team providing really good market analysis for a while we we haven't we haven't really been surprised with what's happened in bitcoin totally nailed the top i have you know you can totally check it out um and i enjoy teaching people i teach you how to fish i'm teaching you how to trade i'm not going to be handing you trades left and right i'm going to teach you how to trade and that's kind of what i really enjoy doing so please do check that out um i hope everybody's doing well let me check the chat room one more time great work i appreciate that and so listen um it's tough right it's tough trading's tough there's highs there's lows you know i've been thinking a lot about i don't have my book cut my new book coming out in a few months or a couple months maybe um the the trading quotes so a lot a lot of my kind of you know one the one thing i'm thinking about is the fact that the biggest losses after come come after your biggest wins right because i i've kind of had had some trades like that in the last few months so i'm thinking about that i've been tweeting about it writing about it you have that big win you get really confident you get really excited you think you know i can't be stopped um and that will get you in trouble right that will get you in a lot of trouble because then you start maybe abandoning your your uh your rules taking some extra risks so it's it's that constant battle with yourself to maintain your uh your risk management methods that are designed to keep you out of trouble so just just be just be cognizant be careful that uh with that um i'd say one big thing i i would suspect uh that's happening to many of you is you're having trouble you're playing these down trends you're trying to guess when they're gonna reverse so i would kind of recommend you only stick with the best alt coins if you're trying to trying to trade altcoins only play the ones that are above their you know their blue line the 200 moving average play the strongest charts anything that's below that just avoid it that's a downtrend stay away from those downtrends they're going to get you in trouble you're going to lose most of your money trying to guess when a chart's going to reverse when you really could just be identifying an uptrend and buying the dip in an uptrend so that's how you kind of want to orient your thinking in any case thank you i really appreciate each and every one of you we're going to finish off here with a little bit of music um i hope you're doing well i hope you do know that i do appreciate you i appreciate everything you do glad you're part of the team all right let's get it going you
2022-03-14 13:23
