$BTC #Bitcoin Bulls in control? Quick market update 2/15/22
all right everybody how about that how about that i'm big chad's today it is time flies it's tuesday february 15th 2022 i hope everyone was doing well hope you had a great valentine's day please do give me a shout out here in the chat room let me know if you can hear me okay i'm gonna get this party started i'm gonna slide that music off right now folks once again thank you very much for coming i am big chad's i'm doing this for fun i start out with dancing trying to set the mood uh set the tone i just i want to connect with you a little bit and kind of hopefully that will make it easier to learn we'll talk about bitcoin talk about crypto we'll talk about risk management and we'll just try to have fun this is what we're doing this for looks like you can hear me loud and clear this is a worldwide phenomenon i see we have people from all over the world already jordan all right what's going on what's up in jordan uh what's up uk in the house greetings from mexico portugal from boston pakistan australia so listen we're all here together we're all connected if you're um if you're struggling you're not the only one like trading is super super hard trading is super complicated and i'm gonna try to make it a little bit less complicated a little bit easier for you and the reason i think i can do that is i've made every mistake i've made them all a hundred times and for like part of my pentenents is i try to teach you how to not make those mistakes so let's get right to it i'm on twitter of course at big chats um we'll talk about kind of a series of tweets um laying out how we got here tonight and kind of where we are and this won't be long this is just a quick little update but um i'm on twitter of course i'm on youtube go to my channel hit um hit like and subscribe appreciate if you do that go to playlists if you like 99 of your questions can be answered by watching the tutorial playlists um this is where i explain my entire setup how i approach the chart what i'm looking for um the basic terminology it's going to make it easier to watch my stuff on here and then from there there is of course the free version of the book trading wisdom 50 lessons every trader should know i am the author um is on amazon right now there's four formats but you can get it for free on youtube so definitely check that out and bitcoin live i'm the founding analyst at bitcoin live the best in class educational platform for crypto twice a week long for market updates from me and i'm just one of many contributors wonderful team i've been doing it for a long time something i'm proud of so i'd uh consider you uh you know i would recommend you consider checking that out so my friends what do we think what do we think is going on it's so complicated and um you gotta try to find a way to make it easy right you know what is that the analysis paralysis if you look too close if you're looking at too many things if you have you know too complicated to set up what's up vancouver algeria uh good to see you there belcotti i see a man definitely see you uh slow and steady wins the race that is a fact uh let's see what's going on sorry you missed bulgaria you missed the dance session i'll do one at the end justin we're good and what's up big chess another alert netherlands what's going on so we're trying to make it a little bit simpler um and you got to kind of look at just zones like you have a chart and you want to see the price rising over time and you want to see it holding on to two games right if you're in in war and it's kind of a back and forth and there's these hills in the middle and these sides kind of push back and forth almost like a like a wave you crash in and come tied it comes in and it kind of reseeds and it comes out again and you wanna hold on to your games each time and you can eventually win the battle and that's that's how it is with charting when when you have like a big low like health wise for the for the construction of the chart bulls definitely want to hold that you know 30k level right you can see that and then because then you know this this area is now in the past we're probably not going to revisit that and if we can hold this you know we bounce here and this is kind of locked in you build those gains over time that's the goal right so how do you simplify it and how do we get here so very well documented how we got here and um i've talked about it like of course uh you know on my youtube youtube channel on twitter on bitcoin live you know kind of where i'm at and how i approached it and we've been correcting and i've used this analogy before many times where you have a downtrend it has to go side well you don't really go like that in a downtrend do you you go a little bit more like this you're going to downtrend you have to go sideways before you can go up again right so you kind of want to think about simplifying it is it going up is it going down or is it deciding is it consolidating right and so the first step here because it's really easy to get carried away in all of these little bounces these are relief rallies these are counter trend moves it's really easy to get caught away are caught up in them but once you're practiced enough and you've been doing it you kind of understand you're just bouncing into kind of a descending resistance moving average resistance and you kind of observe the chart and you start to see like where the price is rejected i've talked about this here with ema34 so in order you know you see where it's rejected so in order to go from downtrend to kind of deciding or pausing you have to you know you have to recapture some of those fox those those hills you have to recapture some of those objectives ema 34 we did that here and now we're doing ma50 so you see the signs here of weakening bear trend we've talked about that um but like how we got here so january 21st a relief rally is likely sooner than later price cannot stay this below the lower bollinger for this long in the daily and that was down here that was um that was this day right it wasn't the bottom it was in the general vicinity of the bottom because we went lower from there but the idea is that the price is elastic and it's going to be sometimes it moves too far and will snap back so even in this in this um uh bearish environment it's still likely to at least bounce you know from here it was at uh you know 34 it was likely to at least tag the ema eight you know before getting rejected that's a pretty good move you know i'm like 31 to uh to like 37 ish on 37.5 so you're still kind of looking for a bounce there you get the balance you know it's a relief rally bounce and then that gets us to the point where now we're watching to see when that downtrend goes sideways right so we kind of anticipated the beginning of a relief rally it happened it kind of made sense and then i was wrong early because i thought the price had kind of topped out and was going to head back you know because we had we had rejected here at the m820 we rejected here at the ma20 the simple moving average the middle bollinger band let's check the chat room real quick all right good to see everybody much love thank you love it sma or ema both it it depends and i explained that earlier in the video watch my tutorial it explains it you don't need to ask me i gave you a video my friend please watch that we'll make it make it all help it make all sense to you hope it all makes sense to you i thought we would reject here i'm looking for that rejection ma20 and this point i'm thinking hey we went you know from whatever 33 all the way to 39 that's a good balance we'll reject you know it's one of those things where it's a downtrend so it's going to continue until proven otherwise so i was looking for that bounce to fade it didn't but i was at least observing i was i was saying to myself and i was identifying what would make me change my mind and you always want to think about what would make you change your mind and i've talked about how like even even in my trade where i did litecoin i was waiting for that hundred level to play the 100 to 140 you know i played that trade but even like on the way down there were levels that i would have switched around and gone bullish there was levels that would have suggested the trend had changed and that's the con that's the kind of what you want to think about right when you kind of your mentality so for me you know i would have changed my mind here we need to flip that and close the daily ema34 for any real suggestion of a return to the primary bold trend right so you know february 1st so uh you know there we are we're down here and it's you know at that point it's it's a bear flag it's a bare flag at that point right you end up doing this kind of tower bottom or a rounded bottom um you know whatever you want to call it even uh you could even call it a bear flag that uh you know that that broke down and then continue to kind of bear trap bottom line is it never retested those lows uh the bottom line is is it start to recap recapture those moving averages and then we got it here and the price bounced now we're up here you know where are we next in the progression so here right we're february 1st you know we're looking at that ema 34. and now here we go february january 29th so i was a little bit out of order so january 29th was before just a couple days before and this is really early and i was thinking this is right you know this is right here and i was thinking what if we do this and look what we're doing right we're starting to do that i said a possible is a possible path now i also put out a bearish scenario that didn't play out so you know you could very rightly say hey you played it both ways yeah that's correct because i'm i try to be a true technician a true technician can articulate both the bullish and the bearish thesis and that's kind of the point in my opinion the way i approach things but this is the possible path for bulls that made the most sense we're kind of you know potentially doing that but in that that leads me to the most important thing tonight i put out a tweet earlier where i said like everybody can identify a head and shoulders but nobody knows how to play it right let's just check in the chat room see how everybody's doing yep everyone's doing well i see it you've sent me this like you're here with your trading light i don't know what this means thank you khalid i see that message in the chat room i i i appreciate that um thank you my friend um so everybody can identify the head and shoulders but it's like you know do they know how to play it problem with this is here's the problem with this okay is that everything from here to here is unclear like everything in here to here is unclear because in this in this area not just the right shoulder but in this area you're developing the shoulders you're developing the shoulders and they're not always clean like is it here are we going to dip down and maybe because they could still be a head and shoulders it's it's developing in here so it's like it's the whole idea that like the best trades come from well-defined levels right and ideally horizontal levels right so um that's the problem so what do you do you you only play on the breakout the retest of the breakout or you play in the invalidation and here it would probably be i think it's a little high in 42. i think this is an interesting case so this is really interesting head shoulders because you could argue with the height you could argue for the neck baseline as being kind of the height of the left shoulder but you know you have the the the fact that the bod this is a critical support level 46k just above so i think you actually want to extend this neck base into kind of this larger zone and you want to really wait for confirmation because even if this quote unquote completed it only has like a you know a few hundred dollars before it's bumping up against that major level so you have to then say it's got to flip this level so now you've got a really well established resistance level 45.5 46k maybe 46.5 depending on how i'm conservative i think 46k would be rather clean nice psychological level so you play it that way you play the breakout or the retest but the point i i should have made earlier is that most people only look at the breakout they either make the mistake of playing in the middle while it's developing or they only you know they only play the breakout when does it invalidate because you remember we had that head and shoulders here right and there are a lot of people playing this head and shoulders who jumped in because there's a head and shoulders but they never sold when it invalidated and i tweeted out as it was invalidating i tweeted out if you had a long trade your stop loss just hit like that was the tweet because it just hit though it broke down so you have to be real with yourself in the sense that if your thesis is and that's kind of your your medium your broader term thesis is the head and shoulders when's it going to fail so then you kind of get to kind of the risk management aspects of how trying to kind of parse out the classical charting and kind of getting you the best fit um and adapting it and all that i think it's really 40k right it's got to be 40k it's that clean psychological level um and it's not just kind of this action here it kind of extends back and you've got you know the 40k so it's a well established level and it's just the easiest one right is it 41k is it 39 i mean you can make those arguments but the question is what's going to be the easiest one for you to play for you to define your risk it's 40k it breaks down to 40k you exit your trade right if it gets back up above it you can go long if it gets above 46 you can go long right that's that's it so with the head and shoulders you got to make sure you understand both when it completes uh and when it invalidates um what do we have going on right now i mean it looks pretty good beautiful move um i was actually expecting it to stall out a little bit lower maybe around 44.5 a little more resilient than i thought we'll have to wait and see what happens i do not
know what's going to happen next um i'll just i'll tell you that much right now but i'll but i'm prepared to potentially trade it uh whatever way it happened so anyway thank you folks um i just want to remind you you can find me did i get through actually so there's more i want to explain all right so then uh february 12th all right so february 12th so look at this this is a really nice so what did you do did you go long in 40k if you didn't go long in 40k and you didn't go along on the ma50 where did you go long on the retest and you can see it's very interesting you had you had the orange line converging with the green line and the yellow those are like really important um levels on this chart ema eight always is ema 34 was the height of the relief rally you know in the ma-50 the sma-50 was kind of the canary in the coal mine it has been the canary in the coal mine certainly was back here and that's the level you need you know you really want to get back up above for momentum get back above it this rolls around you kind of cross back above the 200 um you had them all coming together so that was a really logical spot to go along so right here on february 12th reasonable thesis it's all about a thesis your thesis and because if you lose these moving averages right you can cut the trade and you can get out and that's here so it's an asymmetric risk you've got a limited downside with the pretty good upsides you're already in a decent amount of profit um from that trade but right it's a reasonable thesis to go along on the retest and then here's your invalidation it wicked intraday i think 41.6 but it basically came back up above it gave you plenty of opportunity to go along um as that's happening we got some very interesting interesting kind of um japanese candlestick signals and a little bit of a combination of classical charting with the outside bar uh let's see february 14th yesterday so i kind of chalked this up the big red red bodies the spinning top right so it's it this really it tells you so much it's the momentum and you're watching momentum and you can see it's stalling here you see it's stalling you see that you know that profit taking that's kind of downward momentum but you're naturally like if after this kind of a move you're naturally looking naturally looking for like a like a falling wedge or a bull flag or definitely here that re-test the horizontal so it kind of came back into where it had consolidated it was it's all so this is so textbook which is why it's not you know it's bitcoin's been pretty easy to kind of short-term um handicap for quite a while now you know long term nobody can really do it but short term because it's giving you clean response to supply and demand and here the throwback to the horizontal but it got there pretty quick right it got there reasonably quick right and the big red bodies and then boom the spinning top right that's a sign of a reduction of the prior bear force then the inside bar right and then this candle inside that candle and then here the outside bar which is all those signals spinning top inside the bare force is slowed down and then the outside bar the bull force envelops it and then it kind of expands out and then we're seeing the fall follow through on that right we're seeing the fall throwing that momentum so it's beautiful it's all textbook it's it's beautiful so it was fun to talk about that um as a reminder check out my stuff on youtube and if you want to know like how you know how can you do what i just did just go watch the tutorials you have to watch these tutorials if you want more check out the quick market updates check out the long form interview series i have five excellent interviews with brilliant minds i'm going to be adding more having fun with that check out the free version of the book trading with them 50 lessons every trader should know um i've done 11 of the 50 lessons in the book i will eventually have the whole book out for you for free it's available on amazon kindle audiobook audiobook hardcover and paperback and of course i am a incredibly proud to be a founding analyst bitcoin live best in class educational platform for crypto you definitely want to check it out if you're serious and you want to stop struggling and you really want to learn how to kind of you know figure out what bitcoin is doing and to manage your risk because we have a lot of fun with that um it's been my pleasure i i got to tell you it's a worldwide thing i love hearing where you folks are from and listen i put out a tweet earlier if you're if your trading system isn't working it's probably too complicated and it's true you know try cutting those indicators off just everything i did tonight did i even mention the rsi once thank you so much um for that happy trees i appreciate that that's very nice of you um did i mention the rsi once like rsi has not factored in my analysis and i pretty much nailed every move like since you know late october i have it i have the receipts so it's like you know it's price focus on the price too many people use the rsi to generate an idea it needs to come from the relationship between price and support and demand uh support and resistance because support is demand it's the relationship between price and supply and demand and the momentum like how you're getting there and it's just the candles the candle bodies upper wicks we see this it's just you could have seen this i mean it's just it's textbook i love bitcoin it's trading really nicely we're going to watch 46k watch 40k for an invalidation and we're going to manage our risk so i hope that has been helpful um i'm gonna leave with a little bit of dancing just to lighten things up and to uh send my love to you wherever you are i hope you're doing well and i really do appreciate you uh watching this stream all right let's see we got right here you
2022-02-17 20:48
