$BTC Big dump incoming? or Buy the dip! 4/8/22
good evening good evening everybody thank you for being patient it is sun sunday what's today friday it's not even sunday it's friday april 8th 2022 i am big chess of course that is church of eight wheels people often ask what's that music i like music it kind of sets you in the mood we're gonna talk about some bitcoin tonight we'll do a little bit of technical analysis we'll have a little bit of fun um it's not a big deal it's a quick update i promise you nothing but i'll you know whatever i do i'll give you the best the best i have um it's a worldwide thing let me know where you are i like to i love when i read those chat messages and there's people from all over the world places i've been most of them i've never been um so i love that so i i love seeing that uh let's see everybody where everybody's coming in from people from ohio right now love the energy i appreciate that the dancing 200k end of year that would be fantastic that'd be fantastic 2 a.m 2 a.m in uk luba staying up that's a great name lud barza luba lud bars that's a cool name florida germany donkey arizona preston uk essex uk i've been watching the um i've been studying like ninth uh eighth ninth tenth century like in english history and kind of like after the romans left and like the danes came in and like the seven kingdoms there i'm just into it right now so having a lot of fun with that that's pretty cool essex um australia jersey miami listen we're all here together you know we all all the time we fight with each other and we look at people and we'd like oh we're all so different we're really not that different we're really just we kind of want the same things for the most most time most of the time and um there's not that much really that's different that differentiates us so i love to just touch base just know that me and you we're friends wherever you are in the world we're having fun we're here because we're into the same things we're into trading we're into crypto i mean hopefully you like what i do unless you're here because you you know to kind of hate on me i mean that's fine too it's free speech so you kind of you do you i'll do me and hopefully it works out um let's get right into it of course i'm on twitter i'm at big chats uh that's where you know me um look you you really want to watch um the tutorial playlist educational live streams it's going to give you kind of a general idea of how i approach things i'm the author of course of trading wisdom 50 lessons every trader should know it's something i'm really proud of it's on amazon the reviews are ridiculous people love it something i'm really proud of um you can get you know four formats i have a free version on youtube go to the playlist um you know 50 lessons every trader should know i'll get the whole book out for free you know i'll probably do another video in like two weeks maybe eventually the whole thing for free um check out my uh interviews i just had a great interview with peter mccormick really smart guy that was a lot of fun definitely recommend you check that out i'm going to kind of expand these over time as well um and if you want to learn how to trade um and you want to do it right you want to learn how to read the chart understand the trend it's bitcoin live there's just that's it i've been doing it for over four years i'm part of a team it's just an unbelievable team one that i'm proud to be part of um you know ask me about that check it out so um what are we going to talk about tonight so trading's hard right we've talked about that many times and um you know but the most important thing is to kind of understand the context of what's going on and if you if you kind of check out my tweets and check out my last um public update you'll kind of see uh you know what led into this and and and what what i think about where we are but you know that will give you it will help you set the table right i'm gonna get into it here but my thoughts that have been well laid out um and we talked about we've been talking about kind of the formation of this zone this horizontal zone the failed um you know double eve bottom and these relief rallies kind of um the high water mark right of these relief rallies rejecting and forming the 46k zone you know we talked about um the importance of that level and the significance of a break from that level and then we talk about the concept of when you have a measured move like from a height of a triangle um you know what can maybe get in the way of that if you have an obstacle in the way of your measured move ma200 the concept of that first underside test of the ma200 in a while we've talked about all that you know those are the concepts we understand we have a downtrend trying to bottom it gets rejected at a level it flips the level and it doesn't hold it right so let's just kind of walk through that right here we go march 29th right despite all the enthusiasm march 29th we'll zoom right in here so this is just after we break the level march 29th right here right despite the enthusiasm it's worth observing you have to always check yourself you have to always be thinking context right don't get caught up the easiest way to lose money is to get caught up in in the enthusiasm and that's going to kind of that will be addressed in the last tweet i'm going to show you this pump that we just had this kind of easy short opportunity based on this pump right this news pump a predictable news pump a really easy trade setup just happened we'll get to that but it's enthusiasm that makes you lose money it kind of makes it makes it encourages you almost to lose money it makes it easier to lose money and so the point here is despite the enthusiasm it's worth observing you have to observe daily tweezer at upper bb and ma20 what does that mean so bollinger bands and john bolinger did a great job and he makes my trading easier and these are so really so good it gives you the context of any japanese candlestick signal right um you can only really be uh you know like a reversal candle is only you know really good at an extreme like in the middle it's not as powerful and you learn that when you study japanese candlesticks and that's about applying that eastern ta right the japanese candlesticks with with the western ta classical charting and that's why a blending of those two methods uh is most effective check you know check my textbook recommendations on twitter um i've talked about that many times uh you kind of want to always pay attention the fact you get a shooting star candle here at the ma200 at the upper bollinger band and after an advance it's not kind of a casual walk up uh we're talking about a pretty pretty pretty strong type of move uh you know really from just the 13th of march on just a strong type of move in just a couple of weeks really getting you up to that upper bollinger band and the m8200 classic kind of a you know reversal candle you know japanese candlestick signals as we know their short-term reversal candles that's so that's what we understand based on our studying um of the discipline right it's not like uh you know you're bearish for the next three weeks those three months it's a short term all these are short japanese candlestick singles are stick signals or short term signals you have to use that context and often it might only mean a retracement to the ema eight which might be then a bullish throwback by the dip a continuation but you still kind of observe them at their moment in time and um at their context right and the context is that it's at the ma200 and it's after an advance at the ma200 after a breakout so you're kind of like with any breakout in general um you're always kind of looking for the throwback you're always thinking like you know what's the deal am i going to get the throwback am i going to get the throwback am i throwback right the bullish retest but when you have the overhead resistance you've got this you know ma200 right there and you reject it's like you're thinking that you know 70 80 percent throwback what very likely we're going to throw back okay so when you're in that moment that you've you've broken out and yes uh duquan's buying and apple's gonna do whatever and there's rumors of this and there's on chain left and right that looks great and um you know there's all these narratives about your financial future like that stuff is great it makes you feel good but like what does that what does that do for you with a trade like that does nothing in terms of defining your risk and every trade is about a thesis and how you define when the thesis fails and momentum and kind of taking advantage of movements outside of kind of outside of a normal deviation that was too complicated the point is you had a really key level that was broken out and then you had an interesting signal at the right spot at the upper bollinger band at the ma200 with excitement there was a lot of excitement every top i you know i've tweeted these out like i've tweeted out these have been sentiment tops too the ta has been the kind of the classical charity signals made it easy to spot these tops and i can back that up because i've shown it and it's in all my videos go look at it but the sentiment also helped make that easier and in in and of itself gave you really clear kind of tops as well here back in here i put a tweet out about sentiment um it's been really deadly so when you're really bullish after a breakout at the ma200 and you're starting to get that that tweezer top at the upper bollinger ma200 is worth observing right so try to you know there's times when i'm vague and then there's times where i try to sound like i want you to know it's important and i kind of make some things notable or i say something's worth observing i'm trying to tell you um i'm trying to tell you like that's a data point you know it's not the data point or the only data point but if that's an important data point that's something that's now part of the stew if you're cooking something it's in there it's not going away it may not be you know the overwhelming ingredient but you can't just ignore it that's something to pay attention to all right so march 29th and then i put it out btch alts and it's like when you see this you've got a good idea of what's going on if you look back in the history of this tweet uh if you look back on like the history of this tweet right from me and kind of the concept behind it and maybe we'll go back but i did it right at the november top yep sorry that was didn't really pull it up well let's see we'll go back we'll go back let's see if we can find it there we go there we go the point is when etc when bitcoin starts to top off the money flows into btc this would be responding to somebody and that's kind of the concept money flows into ptc then eth into ltc this you know basically the top because litecoin is pumping uh btc eth in any case the point is and i've done this in other videos and i can't find the tweet right now but this is the type of tweet where you are observing that bitcoin stalling and we're seeing ethereum hot like bitcoin stall on ethereum's hot silk cues bumping uh random alts xtvg is pumping like random alts are pumping right you're observing that that's the call uh march 29th that's the kind of like here's a little you know good all-time this is a time for alts right now quick altcoin run march 29th you had a nice little bounce a little nice little pocket here for altcoins they had a nice nice they had a good week here a good four or five days all right so there's bitcoin stalling here's some alts we can see the money flow into alts and but here's the warning here's the warning i'm observing that listen we broke out pause and reject but if we fail to hold on the throwback you really need to pay attention that is a big warning sign below 45k risk off we get the temporary risk off and recapture um you know still some enthusiasm still some enthusiasm at that point right um where you've you you know you're back above 45k but for me you've already violated it it's already that's like an you know classical charting is called an early move um it's an early move right or an out of line move it basically means it went early in the eventual direction of the break it's not a false move it's called an out out-of-line move you're standing in the cafeteria everyone's lining up for a meal somebody cuts the line okay and they go early so that's what that is it's either a false move or an out of line move it basically it's already broke for me it's broken the trust it's already broken the support it comes back up came back up above and it trapped people it trapped people we'll get to that in a second so below 45k risk off now we're above it you're seeing people you've seen the people who have been calling bottom since the top still calling bottom talking about rsi oversold tumble whatever narrative they can find their narrative trading but you're not you're trading on key result levels you're trading a momentum key supply and demand levels like narrative traders are losing money because they're buying the top here they're kind of buying buying that false move buying that weakness here we are below 45k risk off uh april 1st and people say i'm vague you know and i'll i'll do these videos once in a while listen i i don't i have to kind of talk myself into doing a youtube video but i feel like it's worth it once in a while um but this is a good opportunity for me to explain my tweets all right flashing major warning signs of a potential failed breakout right we're flashing major one april 1st why look at this it's a clearly defined level support into resistance into resistance you ca you can't ignore this and i've been talking about this in every video any video i've ever done i've tried to kind of illustrate this point if it's be you know if it if it's been if there's been like a reasonable opportunity to do this this is something you want to drill home you can't ignore this so we're flashing major warning signs april 1st first here came back up above it recaptured it trapped people so what did i say april 7th we've been kind of churning here there's some enthusiasm given the strength of ethereum bitcoin i still i i wasn't comfortable in bitcoin i couldn't get comfortable here there was still a lot of you know given the price that the price hadn't broken down yet um there was still some room for enthusiasm but my my gut and the evidence i'd see i had seen told me you know i can't get bullish on bitcoin here with this ethereum bitcoin strength with the strength um of the ethereum uh pair versus bitcoin right there's no way for me to get bullish and that was in this period here right there's no way there's no way for me to get bullish rather ah sorry about that all right so as bitcoin was consolidating here i was i was kind of cautious i'm like there's no way bitcoin is going to run with ethereum showing this kind of strength versus bitcoin i put out this tweet on um april 7th right it's the conference people are excited april 7th so april 7 is already down here so there's all these warning signs it's 45 k risk off so you're already out like you're out of a long trade you're not in a long trade anymore by the time this tweet comes april 7th like you're either cash or you're like not in a position because you already understand we have a failed breakout at that point you had warning you had warning on the ema on the ma200 tag the candlestick signals you saw the throwback you saw the failed throwback and it lost it you're out like you were already out right at that point what i'm saying now is don't get suckered back in given the technical picture i would look to fade any bounce that comes from a news event all right this is april 7th um is today what is today the eighth so so april 7th it was right here for uh let's see 40s where did it go to april 7th okay so we had the announcement okay and it came right here okay so this is the candle 43 7. was this the candle i believe let me just get a little more precise yes it was that basically was that high of day 44k right all right all right i'm just gathering myself folks i'm getting older okay you gotta bear with me i basically said like and it's the whole concept it's that whole concept where every market reaction is an overreaction and i'm more interested in the reaction to the news the news itself but kind of the history of these like like pumps news pumps they always get faded and like it's and it's weak like you're in a situation where you're just looking for a bounce to fade right that you understand trend analysis you understand momentum trading in a corrective state you're look you're begging for a bounce you can short it all right but your friends are um your friends are just like are getting trapped up top your friends are getting trapped right what do i mean by that look unless you want to become someone else's exit liquidity stop chasing pumps all right so let's see i basically said look to fade any bounce that comes from a news event all right we get the bounce on the like the square news or whatever it is you basically bounce up to 44k and i'm like i open shorts like you kidding me it was classic and we're in it's like incredibly bearish momentum as is and then you get that balance that's a gift okay uh and then not only that boom lower to upper bollinger move in the one hour and bounce right into supply right bounce right into resistance you can't like people were rushing and buying here right think about that you can't buy that move you have to see that move and either say i was smart and i bought the dip earlier and now i'm taking profit or i'm going to chill out and see if we can clear this level because or you know take a short are you kidding me this is a counter trend move this is a move against the trend and it's a news driven move like what are we talking about here right you you go against that bounce right into it all right one hour lower to upper bollinger band move here's the there's always a caveat right because any technical analyst first of all first of all any technical analyst can uh uh um any technically a true technical analyst can articulate both the bullish and the bearish thesis like you can see the chart and not be married to any way but i mean if it if it's very clear which way it's going you know you want to recognize that you can articulate the thesis so you want to be able to say like when's it going to change you say okay flip this and some momentum can be built yeah flip this we can have maybe a larger counter trend rally bounce to 45 reject at 45 that's like your thinking okay here we go look and then what 1 8 clean rejection look at that clean rejection why are you buying that and unless you want to be someone else's exit liquidity stop chasing pumps right you're paying off the person who bought here on the range low retest it's not a complicated trade they bought on the retest of support thinking some type of a double bottoming or like a retest or a spring a break and recapture that level like this was a very low difficulty trade you know relatively speaking and they're in it and now they're going to hold and they're going to sell up here you bought the pump because because somebody announced that like bitcoin and square or something it's like what is that what kind of strategy is that none of that matters the only thing that matters is price relationship to support and resistance okay so so that's exit liquidity you're buying someone else uh you're buying someone else who basically made a good trade right when you're doing that and you it's right at the upper bollinger so what are you doing right you got to get over that ha that that's a terrible habit you need to get over and then we broke down and then boom and then four hour breaks down four hour ma200 so what do you want right um i don't know where the bottom is i'm not i'm not here to do that for you i can't do that i could guess you know but like look first touch m8200 i'm sorry m850 potentially in the daily i think we probably tagged the ma50 um you it's not about like predicting where it's going to go it's about understanding it's like it's like what is it college basketball it's like understanding who has the possession clock okay and what that means is if we bounce here you look into short you're looking to fade a bounce into resistance because that would you're looking for whatever is going to give you the best potential setup based in the trend you're looking for the best counter trend move that you can fade right um you've got opium dealers are always going to draw a diagonal and we've talked about how that's ridiculous it's not about that you had a major level that was tested you had it was formed over time with time interval time in between attempts multiple points you have a break and invalidation that is a really bad sign that has to be the beginning of any analysis not that the stock rsi is oversold or that like your random elliott wave or some like you know one hour head and shoulders like get over that stuff just focus on momentum and key levels i think you'll be just fine i want to remind you that i'm on twitter of course that big chats uh academic observations about price trading psychology risk management i am the author of course of trading wisdom something i'm incredibly proud of you can find that book on amazon the reviews are unbelievable uh it's very satisfying um by the way i have a third book my book three trading quotes books some of the quotes from the book and a bunch of my other work that's going to come out in the next few months really excited about that project i would like to recommend you go to my youtube channel check out whatever i've got here for you it's all with love i think it's a value if you're brand new to trading two technical analysis go to the tutorials start there watch the quick market updates and then of course the free version of the book trading wisdom if you really want to learn how to trade i am a founding analyst at bitcoin live i've been doing twice a week market updates for almost four years something i'm incredibly proud of um and bitcoin live members have been nailing these moves because we have a great team one that i'm honored to be proud of so consider checking that out um i thank you folks for joining this video wherever you are in the world we're all in this together i may not have taken too many too many chats or questions here from the chat room but i do see those messages i've been reading them um and i appreciate that i want you to know i appreciate you folks i may not respond to you on twitter i may not you know you may not know if i see your messages but i appreciate you we're all in this together we're all having fun so my blessings to you we're gonna finish this off with a little bit of a dance party as always once again many thanks from me to you so you
2022-04-11 08:29
