#betd21 Francesco La Camera & Dr Fatih Birol - Virtual Green Sofa Talk

#betd21 Francesco La Camera & Dr Fatih Birol - Virtual Green Sofa Talk

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And welcome back, everybody, to the Weltsaal. The  regulars amongst you, ladies and gentlemen, will   probably remember the Green Sofa that has become  an icon of the Berlin Energy Transition Dialogue.   It stands not only for the intensive exchange here  at the BETD, but also for our focus on networking   with other summits and events worldwide to  foster global dialogue on the energy transition.  So, between our conferences, the Green  Sofa used to travel around the globe.  

It has toured six continents, welcomed  thousands of people and prestigious guests.   Alas, those travels were suspended last year  due to the pandemic. Until we can resume them,   we have a virtual version of the Green Sofa.  And in this session, it provides a platform  

for dialogue that has become a tradition here  at the BETD. Bringing together the International   Energy Agency and the International Renewable  Energy Agency. Both of them, of course, uniquely   steering the global energy systems. I'm  going welcome our speakers in just a moment. 

But before we do that, we have an audience  question for you. And it concerns the priorities   that you believe the IEA and IRENA should have.  We're asking you what work areas should the IEA   and IRENA prioritize? And please, if you are  a registered user, use our Slido window to   tell us what you think the main priorities  should be. And as you see, this is a word   cloud. We're starting to get some words and come  back to that in a moment after I introduce our   speakers and take a look at our word cloud. So, I would like to begin by introducing   Dr. Fatih Birol. He is Executive Director of  the International Energy Agency. And joins us  

remotely. And I'm also very pleased to welcome  Francesco La Camera, Director General of the   International Renewable Energy Agency, IRENA. And now, before we get a first input and   presentation, let me just quickly go back to the  Mentimeter word cloud. Well, developed quickly   I must say. We have, of course, renewables at its  center which is appropriate given our topic here.   We have just transition high up there in  terms of priorities. Long term planning.  

Hydrogen also emphasized here in our word  cloud. And energy transition, of course,   as well. And then a lot of other phrases being  entered here. Legislative framework, access to   energy services. Community, energy, citizen  energy. Cooperation, infrastructure and more.  So, very good. Thank you very much. And we will  now begin with a presentation by Francesco La   Camera who brings us the latest numbers on a net  zero scenario. Showing that the 1.5 degree goal is   still technically and economically feasible.  Here is Mr. La Camera. The floor is yours. 

Thank you, Melinda. At these levels, it is  very great to be with you at the Berlin Energy   Transition Dialogue. I realize it's a privilege  to be part of the establishment of it and to be   in the session again with my good friend, Fatih  Birol. This is an important course, and we are  

looking forward to the discussion over the next  few days. The BETD team captured the sense of   this moment in time. Science is clear. According  to the special report, we need to get to zero   in 2050. Gas emission must be reduced compared to  2010. We are entering the decade to define whether   we have a fighting chance to keep temperature  rise to 1 degrees. This is becoming clear to many.  Despite the crisis the and the economic  difficulties, companies continue to make   ambitious commitment to action and strategy. And we are looking at the outlook review. We   launch it today. And the system must change to  stop the 1.5 degree trajectory. This is not easy,  

but fundamentally, the energy transition can be  a great vehicle not only for decarbonization,   but also for a new economy that is inclusive,  prosperous and resilient. As you can see from   the slide, the window of opportunity is narrow. At  IRENA, 1.5 Celsius pathway to work to be deployed   at call by 2030 and making the shift towards a net  zero energy system by 2050. We see six key avenues   for emission reduction in the  electrification and others by 2050.   Electricity becomes the main energy  carrier. Please, next slide. The most  

important shift is the increasing use  of low cost energy carriers. The use and   electricity generation must expand threefold. Providing 90% of the supply that we sent   today. It can be all renewable if we  support it with ambitious energy efficiency   packages. And we need to consider the distribution  in industry and transport. IRENA looks at custom   batteries to be hydrogen by 2030 or before. This  is a hard task, but it's the new energy reality.  

Markets are starting to shift to renewable energy  assets. Please, next slide. For example, the share   of the fossil fuels in the S&P index dropped  significantly from 13% a year ago to below 2%   today. In 2020, standard and Poor energy index had  them you have by 38%. Compared to the energy index   which was down by 37%. This trend will continue. But the one point on the agenda requires  

a different speed and scale. So, we go to the  next slide. I'm talking about investment. The   plan is placed in 98 trillion to ramp up  investment by 2050. Our outlook shows that   an additional 33 US dollar trillion is required to  align with the 1.5 degrees. Including a short term   stimulus and recovery funds can leverage that  investment by a factor of 3 or 4. We must get used   it to guide investment decision towards energy  transition priorities. And it's also clear in what   must not be done. As the Secretary General  expressed a few days ago, we cannot continue  

to invest in polluting technologies such as coal,  especially in the private sector, if you want   a fighting chance. All of those lines should  be abandoned for a more sustainable solution.   This means that 24 US trillion dollars of  investment must be redirected away from   fossil fuel to energy technologies. The system is  not a full replacement. It is a new energy system   based on decentralized technology that  take advantage of the digital solution,   and participation of many factors. This leads me to the final but critical  

point. The energy transition cannot be limited to  energy choices. Go to the next slide. Thank you.   To support the integration of renewable energy  must be hands on to ensure that industrial and   other economic capabilities are relying  on the development and climate objective.   Other market measures can help create a  real trend and be sure people find jobs.  Our last view of this showed there were 11 million  people working in the energy sector today in   renewables. And we need to create 3 new jobs than  fossil fuels for each new dollar of spending.   And there needs to be an effort to retrain and  develop a new career. Combined with policies,  

making sure that people in communities can try  and be more inclusive and more resilient. In a   few weeks, we will release the information we have  presented today along with policy recommendations   and analysis of financing services. Excellencies, ladies and   gentlemen, we need to ensure that we need to be  committed and ambitious to make a rapid shift   for the 1.5 degree course. As I mentioned at the  outset, the task is daunting. But we must try.  

2021 will be an important year. In 2021, we  will take more important action. And we have the   technology in September and the COP26 in November.  And we will continue the energy transition track.   And working with energy and cooperating with the  COP26 for the full success of the conference.   And this collective action is what we need.  Many of you are part of the IRENA first   assembly which took place 10 years ago. In 2010, the Agency had just 65 members.   This number grew to 164 members and 20  country associations. And this force  

moved renewables from niche to the  center of the energy discourse.   We have come a long way. And it is the  time to take the progress to the next   level. Our shared future depends on it.  Thank you very much. Back to you, Melinda.  Thank you very much, Director General. Also, for  the emphasis towards the ends of your remarks on   jobs inclusion. We can see in the word cloud,  climate justice on the minds of many of those  

listening to us today. And I have a question for  you, but first to Dr. Birol to hear from the I EA   has been focusing on. And in fact, you have  done quite a lot of work over this past year   on the topic of building back better after the  pandemic. Let's hear what you have learned in  

terms of emissions and how we can accelerate  clean energy transitions to reach net zero.  So, many thanks to the invitation to the  International Energy Agency to share our   views about the energy transitions and climate  change. Yes, we made a lot of work on the build   back better. But we also said, build back better  all together. It is all together this is important   in terms of having everybody on board. So, I would  like to use a few reminders first. Where we are   today in terms of emissions. Because one of the  things you said, you underlined, madam moderator.  

We said if the governments will not put the  clean energies in the economic recovery packages,   emissions will be there in the beginning of  2021 where they were before the COVID crisis.   This was our radar nightmare scenario. Because  emissions is a result of the economic downturn.   Declined in the year 2020 about 6%. But we said   be careful! Be careful. Emissions will rebound  if the governments do not change their policies.   They thought that the COVID crisis,  the human beings had better hearts,   better understanding of the energy and issues  and they will not again use those emitting   cars, and others. We said, no. There is a need  for government policies that need to change   human behavior. But this will not be decisive. And unfortunately unfortunately we were  

right. We were right once again because what we  have seen is of December 2020, global emissions   are higher than the year before. Emissions,  they declined over the last year, but with   the economies that are recovering, they are back  again higher than before the crisis. Why this is   happening is very simple. Because many major  economies around the world, the economies are   recovering. And the recovery of the economies we  are seeing their emissions are recovering as well.  So, in 2021, this year, we expect a strong rebound  of the global emissions unless rapid policies are   introduced by governments. So, therefore, this  is a reminder in my view. In the absence of  

decisive government policies, emissions will  not go down. This high lights the importance   of government policies. And in my view,  the world might miss a historic opportunity   to make the 2019 emissions as a peak because  we may see the emissions again this year and   the years after unless major policies are not put  in place. So, the IEA is doing everything we can   in our headquarters in Paris and with all of our  colleagues around the world to make sure that this   year we are moving strongly in terms of clean  energy transitions. And I wanted to highlight   four that we are doing. First of all, at the end  of this month, the UK and the IEA are hosting a   Net Zero Summit. The 31st of March. We will be  chairing this, and we have all the key countries.  

Especially four major economies or emitters. Mr. Kerry from the United States.   The Chinese top climate change envoy. Executive  Vice President of the EU. And Mr. Singh,   the Indian Minister. But in addition to that, we  have more than 40 Ministers in civil society. And   we will not see our faces individual, but we will  see what kind of information we can put in place   to have the clean energy technology cooperation. The second contribution we have is on the   critical minerals. Hopefully very rapid  deployment of clean energy technologies   imply a significant increase in the demand  of some of the critical minerals such as   nickel, cobalt, manganese and copper. And many,  many others. And with this, it raises questions  

as some of those critical minerals are  focused in a few countries in terms of supply.   Whether or not or not it will have any new energy  security concerns. Or are they in the concerns   regarding how they are produced in terms  of environmental and social footprint?   And we are going to look. What does it mean? The increasing  

number of electronic cars, solar panels and  other creative technologies on the supply side   in terms of critical minerals. Whether or not  this will put any pressure on the markets,   on the energy world in terms of the prices,  in terms of availability, in terms of energy   security and others. The third area which I  believe is a very critical area, cleaner energy   transitions. The investments to foster them  coming from European, North America, is good.  But this is far, far big from enough. Because when  we look at the IEA's energy outlook, a book that's   been around since almost 30 years, we all  know that the more than 90% of the emissions   are coming from emerging countries. The  growth is coming from emerging countries.  

So, but if you look at the finance in clean  energy, in those countries, there's a big gap   between what is happening in Europe, for  example, and what is happening in emerging   countries. How do we how do we accelerate the  finance in clean energy in emerging countries?   It's a major work we are working together  with the World Bank and the World Economic   Forum. We are going release in June. In my view in my view if you cannot   solve this problem, it is one of the fault lines  of our fight against climate change. Finally,  

we are working on our roadmap world's  roadmap on Neat Zero by 2050. And I would   like to give you some information  on that and I'll finish my words.  So, we have started this last September 2020,  with this work. We have a huge modelling teams   in the IEA for different issues, for outlook  and technology perspective for renewables, all   of them. I brought them together in September. We  started to model a Net Zero by 2050 energy world. 

And January 11th, we have announced this with a  huge press conference to the world our plans for   the IEA this year including our world's roadmap to  Net Zero by 2050. I have been working with several   institutions, modelling institutions around  the world with IPCC, with UK, US, Japan, China,   European Commission. Several of them how to model  best that and to learn from their experiences if   the critics get their reviews in order to make a  rigorous, solid modelling framework. And recently  

this month we organized a webinar about 200  models around the world. We were really happy.   Colleagues from IPCC, China, India, everywhere.  I was very happy to have colleagues from Nigeria   in that meeting and got wonderful news and  their suggestion its which we are working on.  Now, we also are going to, as I said, make the  Summit on 31st of March with the UK COP presidency   and we will get news from the world energy  and climate leaders about the Net Zero 2050.  

We are going to our report the  first draft we go to peer review   around the world to get their feedback. What thing  is right, what thing is wrong. How we can improve   our work. And we are hoping not hoping we  will on 18th of May, we will release our report to   international press in Paris. And I should also  tell you that this report is officially by the   co presidency in order to provide the basis for  the work leaders in COP in Glasgow in November.  

And as I said, this report will build a bridge  it will build a bridge between Paris and   Glasgow. And we are very happy to support the  co presidency, the UK presidency in that respect.  Finally, madam, what are we trying to do in  this report? Just three things. First of all,   we want to assess the scale of the  challenge here. We are going to look  

every single sub sector existing in  the world, sub sector by sub sector.   What is required to bring the emissions  to net zero? And we are going to assess   the existing targets announced vis a vis the  current sub sectors they are in. Then we are going   map out the pathway. Our modelling   context when we build with the ETP and  other coming together for this very   important assignment, we have more than  800 different technologies we are assessing   one by one. And we are looking what kind of  key milestones the world needs in order to   reach those targets. For example,  when do we in the world need to   stop the internal combustion engine cars? Last  one. Or until then, to build a steel plant  

run by fossil fuels. So, key milestones for the  governments in order to give them a more concrete   picture of the task they have in front  of them. And these will be actionable.   Not in the air, but actionable policy advice  for the governments on a sector by sector basis.  And we will also discuss the implications.  For example, oil sector. Today we consume 100   million barrels of oil. It will go down sharply.  But what are the implications for the industry?  

What are the implications for the manufacturers  and those workers? We are going to discuss those   things. But also, the emerging opportunities  coming from this plan will be a part of it.  We also are going to discuss the  wider implications. We are working   with the International Monetary Fund and  other institutions. And we have built   a global commission on the people -centered  economic people -centered creative transitions   under the chairmanship of the prime minister of  Denmark. I think some 25 leaders around the world.   We will look at the implications on the societies.  Because we think the energy transitions should be   as a result of the support coming from the people.  Not despite the people. People shouldn't think  

that the clean energy transitions will take their  jobs from them. And energy process goes higher,   or energy security will be in question. We  have to assure them that we put the people   at the center of the clean energy transitions. So, as such, we are ready for this year's   plans and this year's and beyond. And it  is great to make a contribution to the BETD  

meeting once again to get with my dear  colleague, Francesco La Camera. Thank you.  Thank you very much, Dr. Birol. Also,  for your emphasis on the need to leverage   financing for the green transitioning in  developing green emerging economies, also heard   from Patricia Espinosa. And a subject we will be  picking up on later in the dialogue. Gentlemen,  

we have exactly one minute left on the clock. I  have one super short follow up with the request   literally for a two sentence answer. First of  all, to Director General La Camera, if I may. You   have emphasized time is running out. We have heard  from lots of speakers. You have a wide membership.   How do you want to translate your findings  into practice on the ground? Two sentences?  First sentence is trying to collaborate closely  with our member states and put them in contact   with the public company and the framework.  Open it for all the teams to have energy.  

And also work on what we launched last year.  And in collaboration with the funds. We have   more than 300 partners and more institutions and  companies that developed with The World Bank, we   have many projects. We can make the  finance arrive as needed. Thanks.  Thank you very much, Director General. And over  to Dr. Fatih Birol. Same request. Looking toward   the COP26, looking at political momentum  in 2021, are you optimistic or pessimistic?  I am definitely optimistic.  There are three reasons for that.   Many countries are putting strong pledges  to have carbon neutrality in 2050 or later,   and the political momentum is very strong and with  the United States coming soon joining this group   will make the political momentum even  stronger. The second reason I am optimistic   because the several clean energy  technologies are getting cheaper, and   also affordable in many, many parts of the world.  We are seeing this is a great, great opportunity. 

People will go for these options, solar or wind or  efficiency solutions. Not only to save the world,   but simply because they are cheaper. The second  reason. And third reason, I see the youth   is behind this very strong momentum. And  I look at the last 50 years, the political  

history of the world, if the world's youth  comes together, and they are coming together,   they can be a strong engine of the change,  and because of these three reasons,   I believe I am an optimistic man and the COP26  will result in good and unmistakable direction   for the investors around the world. Thank you. Thank you very much, Dr. Birol. Indeed,   we heard some very powerful youth voices earlier  today. I'm very grateful for you being with us   for our traditional Green Sofa Dialogue this time  around in virtual form. All the best, gentlemen.

2021-03-26 07:05

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