程曉農專訪:史上第二次史普特尼克危機 美中冷戰又升級?中俄軍力加一起 打不過美國?愛國者治台 愛共者治台 誰是愛共者? 211110
Hello everyone and welcome to the forefront of political and economic Uncensored see China host Zhang Honglin I thank you once again for joining us while back we see the North Korean media reported that they also said that the missile was successfully tested their new submarine-launched, of course, attracted worldwide a lot of attention of course, the United States also raised some concerns for this matter but to be honest the United States most worried about may not be the North Korean submarine-launched missiles that tests the main thing is the CCP they recently have high speed of this so-called missile this in Although the tests they have some deviation from this goal but we still think this is a moment of danger will therefore result in the upgrade against all those on the uS military and we need to discuss this very happy today, we are invited to China economists also US-based scholar Dr. Cheng Xiaonong way the teacher presenters hello good friends, viewers hello everybody recent top US generals Milley he also made some responses highlight some of the comments on this hypersonic missile tests China that some people they think that this early Soviet Union launched the first artificial satellite of course caused a very large number of US concern because of course very shocked that we had considered a space race in the whole process of the Soviet Union pre-empted this cause these effects so some people say that this section would think is a so-called Cold War was a point which the Soviet Union is a very important process of a Transition of course, was also caused by a rapid awakening of the United States later that at least we know that the United States was the first human landing on the moon so let us say that time history Putenike time for the Soviet Union had such a name called the first satellite to such a transformation called a competition, of course, everyone is very curious that now that such a missile test-fired a CCP will not happen resulting in the so-called new史普特尼克of this moment is not to produce what we ask Dr. Cheng also host talked about this moment from the Chinese 史普特尼克 hypersonic missile tests this year host mentioned 10 No. May 16, Britain's "financial Times" quoted five anonymous sources speaking of the Chinese military in August this year launched a hypersonic glider aircraft carrier rocket aircraft in this low-orbit space flight around the globe and ground targets cruise attack result is 32 kilometers away from the goal then the "financial Times" reported that China this progress in the development of hypersonic weapons that the US intelligence community by surprise this story also quoted informed sources as saying the tests showed hypersonic weapons in China has made remarkable progress than the United States and the officials realized much more advanced, but No. 20 October the "New York Times" we all know Biden administration is behind it published an article citing the views of some experts expressed say US military unit responsible for reporting incidents of public rail about the Chinese launch Aug. message none Any alleged weapons experiments consistent with news reports in some of the tests described alarmist then the "New York Times" is obviously pandering Biden sought to downplay the "Financial Times" The news of the impact on US policy circles that have come from because this news is related to Sino-US Cold War and the Sino-US Cold War Biden is holding ostrich attitude is that he refused to recognize the existence of this state but said that Sino-US relations are competing these days he spoke again so he No. 21 September he said, speaking long ago
that we are not looking for a new Cold War is not looking into a world entirely different group seems to want to show that Biden said when attending the United Nations General Assembly as long as the United States does not seek to Sino-uS Cold War Cold War never but Biden happened was very clear that he did say the Democrats to do is to complete the objectives within the United States because the Democratic Party is to change the priority of voters in the United States constitute Let him talk to absorb a large number of illegal immigrants from Central and South America and then the poor rapid immigration violations to their right to vote to blacks then there are priority economic and social benefits in exchange for political support for this group is again a priority to the students want to give young students exempted from the burden of student loans to buy a younger generation of political position there is to this progress in socialist economic policy priorities set then these domestic policies did not change the Chinese Communist military threat to the United States in fact my heart is clear that Biden's "Reuters" was reported on October 20 Baideng Deng Air Force one went to Pennsylvania state when I interject here that he returned to Pennsylvania when there are a lot along the way and he welcomed the crowd held a rally where there are a lot of people to participate, but participants welcomed the crowd and shouting loudly in X Biden and Biden say that you this is my clear answer still is gathering below this sentence so Baideng Deng was on Air Force one when reporters asked him to say that you are not worried about China's hypersonic missile his answer is Yes then the recent Chinese military the hypersonic weapon test conducted by the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Milley as my behind China and the US Cold War upgraded 史普特尼克time will explain the meaning of the word so because he thinks it not only represents the real world and the United States among the CCP the Cold War between the big red country already exists and this represents an upgrade of the Cold War to a point on October 27 Mark Milley chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff is the interview with Bloomberg TV in which he confirmed in a recent Bloomberg said the Chinese military into the orbit of a hypersonic weapons experiments Milley said it was a very important event is very close to Sputnik moment is史普特尼克time and caused our full attention Milley speech showed that the Chinese Communist experimental hypersonic weapon has considerable Importance. Milley is a highly trusted person by Biden. On September 15th, Biden will return . Quite Milley says
he is confident of Milley Milley was originally appointed by President Trump chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff considered the highest person in charge of the US military command system, but he was in the presidential Trump without the knowledge of the army chief last October two Chinese military secrets and talk to the federal House of Representatives Speaker Pelosi's Democrats lose Cheng presumably because these credit Biden on the Democratic Party to the White House after it retained the post so Milley Milley of this speech is undoubtedly caused to Biden Milley is the total pressure of the military hypersonic experimental weapon called a Sputnik moment史普特尼克 seen time this statement has deep meaning because in the history of the Cold War 史普特尼克time not only represents the real world among major powers the United States and the red Cold War between this already exists and represents an upgrade of the Cold War to the point just mentioned the word Sputnik lot of people will not strange because it is not a place name more names it is not even English word it is a Russian word Russian Sputnik satellite that is the meaning of the English word actually spell in Russian English pronunciation of the word so史普特尼克time is actually a technical term in the history of the Cold War in particular, refers to the red power caused by the US constitution American and Soviet Cold War upgrade the event of major shocks from Europe after World War II at the beginning of the Cold War with the Soviet Union, so the theft of US nuclear weapons secrets after the completion of the development of the atomic bomb warheads means of delivery has become the focus of concern to both the Soviet military buildup two in addition to the development of national strategic air force to launch nuclear bomb also started to develop medium-range missiles and even then the distal capable of delivering satellites into space can be used for remote missile warhead intercontinental missiles to be projected so that when the United States has been talking about himself in the missile the aerospace industry and the leading position of the United States but had a beginning in the 1950s when attempts to launch satellites twice without success since the end of World War II and the Soviet Union is the world's first research and development from the use of missiles in Germany to get a lot of technical information Germany also forced a large number of missile experts and technicians to the Soviet Union to develop missile and therefore the Soviet missile technology is already ahead of the US, but the US military did not realize that they do not master the Soviet remote missile research and development of intelligence until then No. 4 October 1957 the Soviet Union successfully launched Sputnik Sputnik is the No. 1 satellite is the Russian translation is the No. 1 event immediately alerted the US decision-making circles of the United States because it marks the remote missile technology is actually behind So what is the situation in the Soviet Union in the Cold War means that the state does it mean that the United states will be under the threat of Soviet intercontinental nuclear missile attack and therefore no means of defense the United states immediately began a military buildup prepare multi-faceted range missiles and space aspects War Cold War thus upgraded to a new, more intense phase for the US, the Soviet Union during the Cold War 史普特尼克this moment is called史普特尼克No. crisis because in order to cope with this crisis in national security strategy the United States is necessary to enhance the level of the Cold War confrontation with the Soviet Union among all out efforts to intercontinental missiles and the space race was so史普特尼克number after the crisis in the US triggered a series of arrangements and activities of the first United States Army party experts within two days you calculated the orbit of Sputnik 1, the second is that in February 1958 the US government established the name of a higher-order defense department has research and design capability called "Advanced Projects Research Agency" is a DARPA abbreviations the agency now there is this moment is doing research and development efforts for the United States this ultra-fast speed of sound in a missile institution then the third is No. 29 in July 1958 when the US President Eisenhower approved the establishment of the national Aeronautics and space Administration to promote the the first manned spaceflight program is the "project Mercury" and began to cultivate a new generation of engineers to perform such a science education program won the fourth lot of research funding is to open the Polaris missile intercontinental ballistic missile R & D of America the next project was the successor of President Kennedy asked the United States is the number of intercontinental missiles far more than the then Soviet Union after the Soviet Union during the Cold War ballistic missile which will lose its leading edge technology has made the United States a dominant position also guarantees his national security is the teacher had just finished mentioning that we are more clear about this moment史普特尼克 Why is it out of course we will be very curious to China's development in the past teachers have mentioned very much everyone in this matter it is curious to say the Soviet past can imagine against the Soviet Union have mentioned many of our research and development of a very superb some benchmarks past because when I think historically we looked at some of the context he found many scientists from Eastern Europe to do so and so Some studies throwing everyone was curious why or why he said that the CCP but they can also cause these US pressure to form a so-called US pressure on the so-called transition a change of a military at a time of so fast even just might point the teacher also mentioned that this in the end there with no we are not supposed to relax a bit this fact were not really so good or really have to be careful that it really is possible in some Chinese technology start going beyond American teacher how you look at it that China is indeed manufactured this point the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Milley moment of
史普特尼克 already talked about it in the back of this issue actually have a concern that Sino-US cognitive problems Status of the Cold War in the end is how serious what then is the year of the Cold War Soviet ignited Well, today's Sino-US Cold War Party is lit I used this program in our Party seems to have said it several times is how to ignite the Sino-US Cold War it is that he has a series of actions this is the first act of the first half of 2020, the beginning of the first of January of last year in January Chinese Communist Party to send naval fleet to Midway exercises public posturing threat Pearl Harbor followed in March last year announced the seizure of the CPC international waters of the South China sea naval base group consisting of artificial islands and the South China sea to become the CCP threatens US with a nuclear warhead intercontinental missile nuclear submarine fleet launch position is once again in June last year announced with CCP Beidou satellite system completed the implementation of a nuclear war accurate nuclear strike on the United States to deploy throughout this winter and spring is the fourth Chinese Communist Party sent the aircraft carrier fleet in the South China Sea and East China Sea and the US aircraft carrier fleet so to confrontation so far this spring, the CCP has used these military actions show that he is deliberate and is active launched against the United States Cold War-style threats but military technology to Communist Communist army used until this spring is still the traditional way after World War II so the CCP lit China and the US after the Cold War the United States no matter how kind of official explanation is the fact that China and the US is no longer hostile relations under the nuclear threat of the so-called Biden talked about the relationship between the friendly competition of the Cold War, but this is not so with the Cold War does not seek Biden the argument can be perfunctory in the past because the CCP is seeking a new Cold War the United States can only deal with the nuclear threat of the CCP so that Biden does not seek a new Cold War argument only demonstrates the weakness of his attitude but the CCP ignited the Sino-US Cold War the fact is that Biden is no way to avoid the reality exists but is indeed objectively say that the United States has been less worried about the nuclear threat and why the CCP because the US ballistic missile defense system has been used for decades a very complete and effective then the Cold War after the Sino-US honeymoon continued to maintain the United States is not a Cold War rival after large red country's long-range nuclear threat is likely to include land-based and submarine-launched intercontinental missile with somewhat complacent that the United States can continue to use the US-Soviet Cold War after the United States the kind of long-range nuclear threat defense anti-missile anti-missile missile system can cope, but the US military apparently did not expect the CCP ignited the Sino-US Cold War so fast in the 20 months to further escalation of the Sino-US Sino-US Cold War Cold War pushed to the second 史普特尼克time for the US on this key point in August this year, so the CCP launch of the hypersonic weapons and the Sputnik 1 satellite in 1957 are the same as the Soviet Union launched represents the Communist Party of carrying nuclear warheads, delivery vehicles upgraded into a new level also means that long-range nuclear threats ahead of the US Communist Party of the United States are currently no counter-measures can also be used to defend against such weapons is not technical capacity so that the United States previously the key is to defeat the Soviet Union in the Cold War alert them that he began a series of scientific research from among Sputnik No. crisis Hair and made to curb the threat of Soviet nuclear superiority the United States is now experiencing a second number Sputnik crisis in Sino-US Cold War among his reaction how to separate what we want this system of military orders and military systems point of view this is the United States as a military order system Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of his functions is the person in charge of the various military services and the joint meeting of the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the functions is to study military strategy to develop operational plans to complete the various military services command of military training activities but is responsible for determining the policy of military equipment research and development and military use is as a Department of defense military and political system since the United States is currently the CPC means new nuclear threats did not deal with this problem now handed the hands of the Ministry of defense in charge of civil defense dominated the major policies of the United States military orders so the system sends a signal of crisis after the military authorities how to deal with it is the key of course Biden's attitude is also crucial but until now Biden that he is still busy diplomacy abroad October 30 to 31 to attend the G-20 summit in Rome then 11 May 1 went to the north of Glasgow, Scotland to participate in the global climate change summit held there during this period then what he now did not have time to take into account the American system of military orders issued to the second alarm crisis Sputnik number of US Department of Defense What is it the attitude of the US Department of Defense spokesman Kirby emission supersonic weapon for the CPC expressed concern about reports he only but he tried to downplay the significance of the CPC new nuclear threats in accordance with the established policy of Kirby Biden said he was not willing to CCP tests hypersonic weapon labels affixed史普特尼克time also declined to directly answer the technical nature of the CCP experimental hypersonic weapons and it is not the issue ahead of the uS he just said we are not familiar with the technology of our master the technology is also considered a period of time I think that this includes not only our own efforts to master the technology we also recognize our defense capabilities we need to constantly improve the defense capabilities of the United States, but there is a disarmament ambassador Robert Wood told his story on he said the United States is not the same for China's hypersonic missile tests if you are very concerned about becoming a target country of this technique and you will come up with a way to protect themselves from harm so we began to study the applications and other defensive this application is to continue to accelerate the arms race at the same time he said that we do not know how this technology defend China and Russia do not know that for years the uS military command system of generals has been in the red warning that major powers in the development of experimental hypersonic weapons have this danger is the danger of such weapons, said its speed is more than five times the speed of sound and can carry nuclear bombs the United States Air Force general Vice-Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff John E. Hyten in 2018 it issued a warning to Washington, he said, superb best defense sonic weapon Is to have the ability to launch a similar attack is that if the United States had the same weapons have the ability to attack the United States that the CCP would not dare to use such weapons when he said that we do not have any means of defense can stop a kind of weapon to deploy against us its such a development in terms of weapons, then as early as 2011, the United States Department of Defense to create a high-speed supersonic prototype but Pentagon officials said the Obama era that continue to develop this technology will continue to accelerate the militarization of space so put the high-speed development of supersonic aircraft shelved CCP and Russia are in fact continue to go all out to accelerate the militarization of space research and development hypersonic weapons that also permits implementation of the principle of Mingoubama Obama era is how stupid then it forced the United States to resume now to regain the arms of the technology how to put it to develop weapons of No. 27 September this year, the Pentagon has announced that the Department of Defense under the advanced Research Projects Agency and the US Air force has been completed for something called the "air-launched air-breathing hypersonic weapon" of the first flight test success so hypersonic weapons development director Mike White called the Department of Defense in June this year, a Washington think tank seminar hosted by the United States is being said promote the development of hypersonic weapon goal is to test the 2025 launch in the air and on the sea floor to create a hypersonic weapons and these weapons these words mean still not made out, he said in addition to the offensive hypersonic weapons the Defense Department also CCP can actively developing defense and Russia's potential opponents include hypersonic weapon attacks when in the launch phase gliding stage and interrupt intercept enemy of this weapon so it is clear that the US national security met a second time this Sputnik crisis hit No. this is the crisis that currently comes from the Chinese Communist Party to deal with two major tasks on military research and development is a kind of arms race in space weapons made in the balance of power among the Chinese Communist Party is the average balance of power are balanced second is to develop such weapons of defense there is no system to any country in the defense of such weapons actually hypersonic hypersonic missile has been no progress in this area that is the United States, China, Russia, several major countries have not developed effective for superb sonic missile defense system that the more important issue is that Biden will continue his don't-then when the United States first encountered Sputnik number of crisis when then-President Eisenhower to his anti-communist stance is very firm so in terms of US-China relations in 1960 President Kennedy appointed the young and firm support and promote the development of high-tech US defense both of whom contributed to the United States out of the crisis but now Sputnik No.
Biden and his accomplices and Eisenhower exactly opposite in their ideology Socialism is a soft spot that he would be able to do what the United States for the United States Can not spend the second number Sputnik crisis in the world is to be seen but anyway because the United States entered the Second Sino-US Cold War Sputnik No. crisis has escalated this with the climate change that do not fly than to cover up the so-called global warming. matter of concern to send no doubt be much more urgent is part of the teacher just mentioned probably make us feel very confused if like Dr. Cheng mentioned that the United States should be a very important turning point because it is often talk about Taiwan the case is part of a Chinese Communist Party to fight over the United States will not come to defend you now know that this issue is very important to talk about why he came to the defense useless because the CCP military technology once surpassed the United States in some this so-called advanced technology is leading forward to defend the United States is limited this is what we must worry about the course of these pressures Taiwan Taiwan has faced as a teacher says it prides itself as the United States is still in a democratic country this is how the leader can not or would not care about this as a very strong focus on the things that are basically talking about national security crisis in their country, but just like the teacher said we are still suspect that Biden in the end play for real play fake in the end you do not ever know now who is your real enemy threat and not just the CCP that we saw a while ago, among them the Communist Party together with Russia to do this so-called naval exercises in the East China Sea from each other it sounds cooperation the United States more pressure now he is not only facing the CCP is technically possible for them to overtake the United States may contain the original part of Putin in Russia before they hypersonic missile test-fired successfully when they are just like a teacher analogy is like the first launch of an artificial satellite as they think it is a very important milestone landmark teacher so this is not the United States should be the beginning of a nightmare I do not feel so serious why Biden Russian authorities to put this threat exaggerated the so-called Russian military threat to the United States, we have to look at a problem is the military buildup is a long-term comprehensive national strength of competition between the great powers that today's Russia it is only in the use of some of the military power of the Soviet Union during the Cold War put a picture of accumulated pose a threat, but it does not really go beyond that limit may lead to conflict so Russia is not actually a real threat that the United States is more important is that today Russia's comprehensive national strength can not be compared not only with the US but better than even the Communist Party and therefore Russia do not have the long-term threat to American power I give you just one thing I have experienced in 1995, I went to what was then the Russian host organization told me to say that you want to see it on our nuclear submarines launch nuclear missiles submarines remote I say I want to see ah say he can see it all now said to have stopped on the pier open house the results I really went to the base of the Baltic fleet them to take the tourist bus went also photographed that is At that time Russia had no money to even maintain nuclear submarines rely on to attract tourists to make a little money nuclear submarine base that is still alive which is its current situation was much better now that it will not be better in terms of back and why should the authorities Biden Russia and the Communist military threat comparable to my analysis of it there are three reasons at least three first is the US intelligence agencies have prominent Russian Communist threat and underestimate the threat of preference I give you an example here on January 7 this year, the national office Intelligence Director submitted a report on the assessment of a foreign intervention of the US presidential election in 2020 when the US media, "Washington Watch" to the US Senate Intelligence Committee report on the same day in order to obtain "intelligence analysts underestimate the Chinese on the site of the election of influence "as the title of the report concerns the US intelligence community of the US presidential election, while Communist intervention revealed divisions within the intelligence agencies," Washington Watch "reports mentioned that when foreign enemies within the US intelligence community analysis of the threat of people of different backgrounds have some emphasize some different tendencies threaten Russia's Communist Party underestimated the threat of it was called the Director of national Intelligence Ratcliffe he was accepted in December last year, "Washington Watch" this media interview when he said that we said some intelligence analysts from the Soviet Union Cold War era in this sector of Russia as a threat so accustomed to the share of the country director of the office of Intelligence just mentioned that report submitted by the Senate of its drafters is called the Barry Zulauf he is the director of the national intelligence office of a senior he was an intelligence officer who drafted the report, he told the "Washington Watch" China-related intelligence analysts are reluctant to reporters the CIA for the CCP to assess the behavior of the US presidential election of undue influence or intervention so because these people tend to disagree Trump government policy so do not want to come up with their analysis of the causes of this favorable outcome Trump Barry Zulauf also mentioned that the Director of national Intelligence Ratcliffe disagree intelligence system intelligence analysts inside China established analysis of the direction of the Chinese Communist action now China CIA intelligence analysts still the same people so we can know their tendencies then the second reason is that Biden administration did not want to turn against the Communist Party and he was not really ignore the CCP so he is always a threat to the United States in military diplomacy Russian Communist Party and the deliberate military threat to the United States on a par so real intentions, what is it that is raised by the Russian military threat of harm to hide the dangers of Communist military threat like this may well pave his road show to the Chinese Communist Party which is why Biden authorities have refused to acknowledge the fact that the CCP lit then the third Sino-US Cold War Another reason is that Biden stressed that the Russian authorities threatened that there is a role when he put the Russian military threats and military threat on a par Communist Party can play To the smoker That is the role of Biden authorities sometimes have to express the attitude of military confrontation when he deliberately measures against the Chinese Communist Party and the measures against Russia be confused sounds like for Russia to do so would not only meet internal Congress of the CCP the wishes of hardliners let hardliners feel that sounds like Biden prepare for the defense did not give up but letting the CCP sounds talking about the Russian Communist Party has not been mentioned before that I talked about red big country in the program of the Cold War the United States, including political, military I have to analyze a number of levels below the Cold War economic shift among several levels of American and Soviet forces and the situation of Sino-uS Cold War way of doing simple comparison point so that we can experience them from history Some laws of the United States and see some big red powers growth and decline if we look back at the beginning of the Cold War has a 1948 event and now it was rarely mentioned, but this is an important event on point of the Cold War political confrontation over Taiwan today it is important we heard strange Why might listen to me this story finished in early 1948 after World War II, Czechoslovakia was the country's troops in the Soviet Union was the beginning of the range of 1948 to maintain democratic institutions when it comes to pre-war time elected Czechoslovakia's Beneš government with the support of public opinion do not want to succumb to Soviet control and command then in February 1948 the Soviet Union in Czechoslovakia launched a coup to overthrow the pro-Soviet puppet government of the democratically elected government of then put this event adequately shows Soviet Union to expand its sphere of influence and what the United States and backed by European countries against the essence of this is that in the end is a red autocratic powers trying to continue to expand its sphere of influence with red puppet regime to replace the tyranny of a democratic regime so he wanted to overthrow If the United States can not see through Moscow's true intentions and long-term intentions and finally bound to surround the red power things in a series of occurrence of those around the big red country's democracy will be a domino effect that this incident occurred was in February 1948 Czechoslovakia was a coup the United States was also the voice of the pro-Soviet World War II appeasement advocates of the Soviet Union have been stifled political opposition from the Cold War in full swing on its core is to be the guardian of democracy or tyranny threatened the world I laissez-faire red today tell this story is because today's Sino-US Cold War when facing political confrontation and the Cold War levels actually start today so the situation is very similar in Taiwan, the CCP sought no different from both Czechoslovakia and the Soviet Union in the implementation of all red puppet government not to use alternative orders from big red country's democratic government and achieve red coup in force under stress and then let the puppet government in the red deterrent power garrison serve as cannon fodder for the big red country the past two days I have seen the CCP's propaganda official media have begun to create public opinion to support the red puppet in Taiwan and the vocabulary he used in Like Hong Kong called the use of "patriot rule Taiwan" This is what is meant, then the CCP actually would like to say "love Taiwan government who were" Communist Party of you who love you to let him rule my Taiwan Taiwan accounted for only love the Communist Party only so while the ruling Communist Party can still advertise their list is being developed to kill people should pay attention to Taiwan this means that if these people criticize the Communist Party is not only the future but can not grasp this is to kill the Patriot Party speaks of the rule is to use red table puppet forces carry out the CCP's authoritarian rule in Taiwan, he will never allow a true democratic system and elected government in Taiwan, so the presence of this new cold war of the new Cold War between the United States and then the old Cold War Cold War is exactly the same then come back I have to repeat that level of military confrontation of the Cold War that has a relationship with the situation today is that Sputnik Sputnik moment or No. crisis is because the United States began to relax projection means nuclear weapons research and development and a symbol of the Soviet Union to step up research and development of this technology and then only because the United States to relax the Soviet Union to step up R & D research and development there have been such a crisis so after 60 years in the last century, this is a crisis after the United States has developed a program called Polaris and other militias as well as intercontinental ballistic missiles to achieve the strategic deterrence and the Soviet Union What is the nature of this equilibrium is balanced is that you want to hit me so I can kill you develop intercontinental missiles of the Soviet Union has been lagging behind the United States in 1962, it will only get that hit Florida Soviet medium-range nuclear missiles deployed to Cuba to threaten the United States results in the United States to counter Moscow was forced to withdraw the missiles in Cuba is the year of the Cuban missile crisis is so remote missile system after the Soviet Union between the two countries is escalating in 1962, the two sides still maintain "you want to I want to play I could kill you this balance of strategic nuclear deterrence "but in 1983 President Reagan proposed to develop a missile defense system in the" Star Wars plan "aims to establish a ballistic missile defense system then to 2004 in this system, when officially launched mainly against Russia then from the Soviet Union until after the collapse of the USSR in Germany he has been trying to develop a similar system but until now the Russians can do it only with the limited functionality of the intercontinental missile defense system a region that is able to defend the Moscow region in the Moscow region that he can do it you can not hit me but he is no way like the United States imposed on all land sea, land and air, day one of the national defense of the United States to do Russia and Russia do not Therefore, after the Cold War and now this on the US-Soviet strategic nuclear deterrence between the United states and Russia as well there have been a pro-American to the detriment of Russia's state nuclear deterrence that is now both the pattern of what it is to be American say you can not hit me so I can kill you what Russia can do is what I can not hit you and you hit Moscow this is the reason why I say that now Russia is actually a threat to the United States is not much It's just I just talked about Russia's present position is I can not hit you and you hit the United States in Moscow but you hit me somewhere else I had to let you play so I said before there is a problem to be concerned about is the Cold War the two sides is a competition of comprehensive national strength, but my ability no matter how poor we CIA can only see his report because the uS president is to look at this report before the program is also always talked about CIA overestimated the strength of the Soviet Union and Russia 的 那麼關於蘇聯綜合國力的狀況 1981年的時候美國中央情報局 有一份國家評估報告標題是 《蘇聯在世界權力競爭中的目標和希望》 這份報告說我下面引用原文 進入20世紀70年代 蘇聯時任領導人發現 過去20年的經濟增長和軍事投入 獲得了回報 包括前所未有的優勢軍事地位 和長期政治利益 形成了對蘇聯外交政策的 關鍵補充方式 只要蘇聯認為西方實力在下降 只要蘇聯認為歷史的鐘擺 正在朝向自己 他就會越來越實施強硬的對美政策 這指的是蘇聯在冷戰上面的戰略 那麼這份中情局的報告還說 由於戰略武器平衡的改變 以及常規武器的持續發展 蘇聯已經做好了充分準備 也更願意冒險與美國 在一場重大危機中對抗 由於它擁有了軍事優勢 這種可能性也更大 美國力量優勢的喪失和蘇聯力量 尤其是軍事實力的發展 使得克里姆林宮增強了 進一步實施強硬國際政策的信心 也越來越漠視美國和西方的反應 那麼中情局當年對蘇聯的評價 似乎現在都可以用到現在的中共頭上 那麼綜合國力而言的話 蘇聯的真相是什麼呢 我剛才講了為什麼說中情局 一貫高估蘇聯的這個軍事實力 這個軍事實力和經濟實力 這個綜合國力就是蘇聯經濟實力增長 它最快的時代是1960年到1970年 那時候不但它軍事工業快速發展 民用工業也讓民眾的生活水準不斷提升 因此西方經濟學界相當多的人都認為 都認可而且稱讚蘇聯的實力 我舉幾個有名的人物 一個是美國的著名歷史學家 甘迺迪的拉美事務助理Schlesinger 他到俄羅斯訪問到莫斯科訪問 然後他說他講的是蘇聯 他說這是一個繁榮強大的國家 某些情報專家指美國有一些 批評蘇聯的叫Bill Casey 他說某些情報專家認為 美國可以用經濟武器摧毀蘇聯的繁榮 這僅僅是自欺欺人 美國還有一位著名的經濟學家Galbraith 也許很多台灣的聽眾都知道他 他對蘇聯經濟的評價相當高 他說所有的跡象都表明 蘇聯人在經濟上取得了巨大成功 因為俄國人比西方 更善於利用人力優勢 蘇聯經濟體系進步很大 我這裡強調一句 這位Galbra ith是一位馬克思主義者 那麼還有一位 是美國著名的蘇聯問題專家 哥倫比亞大學的教授叫Seweryn Bialer 他在美國的《外交事務》雜誌上 發一篇文章說 蘇聯人的耐受力極高 他們擁有世界最強大的 經濟、政治、社會潛力 足以克服任何困難 他們不可能被我們打敗的 還有就是美國一個著名的經濟學家 這個諾貝爾獎得主叫Paul A. Samuelson 這個人中國大陸的 所有學經濟的人都知道 因為都用他的教科書他是這麼說的 他說如果認為蘇聯人過得很悲慘 或者斷定蘇聯經濟很脆弱 那麼就犯了一個低級的錯誤 我們不能基於錯覺思考 還有美國麻省理工學院 有個著名的經濟學家叫Lester C. Thurow
他說蘇聯的指令性經濟 顯著提高了經濟的增長 蘇聯顯著的經濟繁榮 事實證明了這一點 現在蘇聯的經濟實力 卻與美國並駕齊驅 我們不能不相信 未來蘇聯經濟會更強大 那麼最後結果是證明什麼呢 犯錯誤的就是這批著名的名人們 他們都犯了低級和愚蠢的錯誤 不要看他頭上頂的光環 什麼諾貝爾獎獲得者 著名教授著名蘇聯問題專家 一樣地在蘇聯問題上愚蠢至極 因為蘇聯很快就在70年代 走過了綜合實力的頂點 一步一步地滑向深淵 用同樣的思想方法 我們可以來認識中共 那麼真正的問題在哪裡 就是蘇聯是垮在 它同時要提升消費水準和擴軍備戰 這兩大任務而蘇聯的制度 還有它的經濟架構 只能勝任一個其中一個 因為這兩個任務同時推行 就會逐步地吸乾政府的資源 這個教訓也同樣適用於現在的中共 是剛剛老師這樣分析 我想很清楚這個當初在美蘇 這經歷史普特尼克這個時刻的時候 當然我們看到所產生的 這些拉拔的部分 的確他把它套用在現在 美中之間的這種冷戰的過程當中 在一些科技的追逐來講也會有 但是當然史普特尼克時刻這件事情 從當時美蘇開始 很多美國境內就一直在關注這個議題 他們在談什麼時候有可能就會有國家 或者是現在看起來 是中國會有機會超越 老師剛剛也提到說 也許也不用把它擴大 但也必須要謹慎小心 如果從我們看到中國 投入所謂的研發經費 我們必須說也不只是這個高... 這我們所看到的這個高超音速的導彈 其實我們包含過去看到5G的部分 中國在某些技術上 它還是不斷地在投入 從他們所投入的研究發展的 這些經費裡面也看得出來 甚至有人做一個比評 它都比美國高出許多 所以就算現在不是 是不是早晚在許多不同的面向裡面 都會有所謂的這個美國必須要擔心的 中國在許多的面向都有可能 在一個轉捩點上去超越美國呢 老師這部分你怎麼看呢 我覺得我們剛才談了好幾次 這個史普特尼克時刻指的是 就是它真正含義是說 如果美國能夠及時警醒 採取必要的措施反制蘇聯 同時實現核威脅的戰略平衡 那麼美國就能度過這個危機 那麼從這個意義上講 這樣的時刻是只有一次的 在此發生了以後 要麼是美國警醒 要麼是美國沉淪 那麼中共當然是希望後一種的 拜登和他的民主黨也不那麼爭氣 但是畢竟美國還不是一黨獨裁 還有政治制衡 所以美國的警醒仍然是可以期待的 至少美國軍方的軍令系統是警醒的 那麼另一方面我們要講到中共 就主持人談到這方面 就中共到底現在的實力怎麼來評估 前面我講了很多關於 蘇聯的這個實力問題 它有高過美國的時候 但是很快它就下坡了 我前面提到它最好的時候是60年代 然後下坡的時候就80年代 90年代蘇聯消失了就不用再講了 那麼中共今天到底是 走在蘇聯的60年代 還是蘇聯的80年代 這個判斷是判斷中共今後 未來走向的一個關鍵點 它非常重要 如果是前者中共現在就走在 蘇聯60年代蒸蒸向上的那個階段 那麼中共的經濟繁榮和擴軍備戰 就會持續下去 那麼中美之間的差距會縮小不斷縮小 但是如果是後者 如果中共今天走的所處的階段 是蘇聯的80年代 那麼中共現在已經在綜合國力上 走過了頂點而且開始往下坡滑了 我們就不必再去相信 中共還可能超越美國 那麼我們在10月27號的節目裡 正好就分析中共的經濟前景的 當時我分析的結論還是滿清楚的 就是中共開始走下坡了 當然啦 如果今天世界還有一部分專家說 執意他就要犯當年那些 誇讚蘇聯繁榮成功的 那些美國學者的愚蠢錯誤 誰也攔不住他們 可惜的是美國在蘇聯解體以後 少做了一件大事 那就是全面的評估一下 為什麼那些著名的美國學者專家 集體犯了那些錯誤犯愚蠢的錯誤 不知道蘇聯要解體 那當中的教訓到底是什麼 只有做好了這一點 我們今天才不至於看到說 美國的學者專家在中國前景問題上 犯蘇聯問題專家同樣的錯誤 而這個可能性非常大 也因為有這樣的教訓 我們對今天盲目讚揚中國前景的說法 就像我們的節目後有一些小粉紅 在那裡盲目的歌頌中國的前景 不要說小粉紅講話一分錢都不值 美國的著名專家講出來 也可能一分錢都不值為什麼呢 坦率地講一個人要是被另外一個人 騙了一次可能是屬於你的輕信 如果你被同一個人騙第二次 就是你自己傻了 我只想指出一點 今天美國的中國問題專家當中 不少人和當年美國的蘇聯問題專家的 思維方法和價值觀非常雷同 其實他們當中很少有人看到 中共過去20多年的經歷繁榮 是不可持續的 其實中共的前總理溫家寶 都講過中國經濟不可持續 但這批美國的中國問題專家 就是不願意相信 那麼接下來我想講一下這個 中美冷戰當中的政治對抗 這方面其實我們不需要太多的分析 事實已經很清楚了 那麼我想要講的是說 通過蘇聯和美國 在美蘇冷戰當中的政治對抗 我們看到一點 就是今天中共和台灣的關係 不僅僅是中共要奪取 中美冷戰的前沿陣地 要突破第一島鏈 要威脅美國這麼一個問題 同時也是中共要摧毀東亞的民主國家 實現紅色專制促進統治這樣一個問題 就中共不只是想把這紅色專制 堅持在中國大陸實行下去 他還打算統治到台灣來 還打算統治到日本韓國去 甚至到菲律賓到印度尼西亞 甚至也還包括澳大利亞 所以現在台灣有些人還在講 要實現兩岸統一 這個說法背後的潛台詞 已經不是什麼統一夢想了 那是想擁抱專制扼殺民主 向中共討個人利益 如果中共他現在這個計畫得逞 我覺得它是個陽謀不是陰謀 為什麼呢 他已經是在台灣公開的招兵買馬了 這就是陽謀了公開地這個謀劃 那麼如果中共這個謀劃得逞的話 從台灣變質開始 整個東亞地區的民主國家 可能都會逐步失守 半個世界就成為了 中共的大東亞紅色帝國了 我們都記得日本當年有一個 大日本帝國有一個大東亞共榮圈的夢 中共現在有個大東亞紅色帝國夢 所以東亞地區的民主國家 是必須和美國一起 來守護東亞地區的民主和自由 那麼今天時間不多了 我就講一個再講最後一個問題 就是事關綜合國力的判斷 當然我來不及細講了 中共要在中美冷戰中堅持下去 它的綜合國力是它的前提條件 那麼分析紅色大國崛起夢這個前景 有一個話題是繞不過去的 那就是很多人都會提出來說 蘇聯是封閉式的計劃經濟 那麼中國已經改成 開放式的半市場經濟了改革開放了 中共是不是就能夠避免蘇聯的命運 那麼事實是什麼呢 中共和改革後的中共 和當年不改革的蘇聯 兩者的區別就在於一點 蘇聯的封閉式計劃經濟的困境 最後表現為財政困境 中共這邊的困境是表現為財政困境 加上潛在的金融危機 那麼最近中共已經開始房地產稅試點 就是一個這種困境的金融危機的 這個要避免金融危機的一個例證 那麼以前我們在節目裡講過 中共的經濟繁榮是一種不可重複 不可持續的景氣階段 第一個是出口景氣 第二個是土木工程景氣 那麼後一個的現實結果 就是房地產泡沫 而它房地產泡沫最大的危險 就是金融危機 那麼10月23號中共突然宣布說 要開始全面徵收房產稅 要試點現在若干城市試點 然後5年以後立法全國推進 那麼中共突然推動房產稅有兩個目的 第一個就是要來擠壓房地產泡沫 避免它整個經濟 對房地產泡沫綁架這種困局 這就是害怕房地產泡沫破滅以後 引發金融危機銀行破產 中共徵收房地產稅的第二個目的 就是要為地方財政 尋找替代的收入來源 就如果房地產泡沫破掉了 地方財政原來是嚴重依賴 靠賣地蓋房子來取得土地收益 每年達到8萬億 2020年就是1年8萬多億 那麼中共也深知 這種建立在房地產泡沫上的這種 對賣地方財政對賣地收入的過度依賴 是非常危險的因為泡沫一旦破裂 就必然造成地方財政的危機 大家注意我這裡講到的 財政危機和金融危機 其實在中國都已經到了眼前了 我講蘇聯是表現為財政危機 就綜合國力下降 中共會表現為財政危機 加潛在的金融危機 而現在財政困境和潛在金融危機 中共已經用收房產稅表現出來了 中共之所以在這個時刻開徵房產稅 是因為恒大風暴 已經導致房地產泡沫開始破裂 再也修補不了了 那麼中共經濟今後失去了 房地產泡沫這個經濟支柱以後 其實大家想一想就知道 泡沫能支撐當支柱嗎 那麼癒後不良就是肯定顯而易見的 中共自己也非常擔心的 因此才會未雨綢繆 用房產稅來這個避免財政危機 同時又防範金融危機 那麼中共對財政危機和金融危機的 防範措施本身證明 中共今後的綜合國力 再也不會像過去20年那樣蒸蒸日上 而是像80年代的蘇聯那樣每況愈下 當然啦這個問題我講得非常簡略 因為它牽涉面很廣的 如果觀眾們有興趣的話 可以告訴製作單位 我們以後再來做專門的分析 謝謝程老師今天很清楚地分析 我想也透過中共試射了高超音速導彈 這件事情引發了我們談的 所謂的史普特尼克時刻 在中美之間的競爭 會不會形成另外一個壓力 我覺得也不是壞事 所謂不是壞事是 也會讓美國的這個民眾更加的覺醒 知道誰是他們真正的敵人 誰在整個科技的研發 軍事的研發的進步 會造成他們自己人身安全 財產安全的所謂的威脅 對他們的信仰價值產生威脅 當然啦我們希望這個 所謂包含現在美國的總統 包含很多的政要 不要是這個所謂的半夢半醒 甚至我們也怕他是演假的 而不瞭解中共的一個 相關的一個本質 所以雖然看起來 老師的分析短時間內 中共因為自己經濟內部的這些壓力 財政的這些問題 也許沒有辦法這個 未來有更多的這些銀彈資源 來支持他們在許多的一些研發 超越這些歐美民主的一些國家 但不諱言這些威脅永遠不會停止 反而是對我們這些 所有在追求中國民主化的朋友來說 這是我們的契機 也許這是我們的史普特尼克時刻 怎麼樣在這個關鍵點 在中國整個西方驚醒 發現他們有一個更明確的敵人 對他們自己國家的信仰、自由、價值 產生一些威脅 那我想這就是我們的時刻 每次我都會這個很積極地會談到 很多人會談到說 中共什麼時候會打台灣 是2025年還是2030年2050年 不管他講哪幾年啦 我心裡的想法只有一個很簡單的想法 就是如果有人說2030年 中共有可能開始會犯台 我們心裡頭所想的部分只能是 那在2030年前我們就要想辦法 推動中國的民主化 這部分大家一起加油 今天很感謝程曉農博士 帶來這麼精彩的分享 誠如剛剛程老師所說的 如果大家對於程老師有什麼樣 想要知道的一些議題 對於希望老師來做一些 更深入的一些評析 當然歡迎大家留言給製作單位 給程老師我想我們會彙整 跟老師討論之後盡快做出 大家所期待關注的一些題目 當然也謝謝大家持續的支持我們 再次感謝程老師 也感謝大家的收看 好謝謝宏林兄 謝謝各位觀眾朋友們收看