ФРС - итоги, Байден VS Рейган, Эпоха «мыльных» активов, курс доллара, нефть, золото,SP500,Акции ММВБ
Friends welcome you morning review. let's take a look at current news current events. Dr. Powell delivered a successful speech yesterday to steer the markets into a new energy state. let's look at what is happening, what news and what movements are expected. for oil, gold, dollar, ruble and other assets for today. so let's start with the calendar. in japan today is a day off. great congratulations to the Japanese on the day off
. and so in Germany at about 11 o'clock there will be data on unemployment. this is a very significant operatic point it will show in which direction. at the beginning of May the euro will move , because whatever one may say, Germany is a locomotive. but there are also consumer prices. and then at 3:30 pm the gdp data
of the United States. this is a very important very important point because as you yourself understand, if GDP does not grow or if it grows less than the forecast, then something is wrong and is not happening in the Danish kingdom. and therefore a reflective effect is possible here . if this situation develops. so 12:30 the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits, which I wanted to draw attention to here.
These volatilities are sometimes reported plus or minus here and there. the markets are starting to sneeze on this too. but in general, if we look at it, there is a downtrend. This suggests that all the same, favorable forces prevail in the United States, but of course, up to a value in the region of 150 200 thousand before the crisis is out of the question. but nevertheless , there is a trend towards a decrease in initial orders, which in itself is quite a positive moment. and so on at 17 o'clock, the index of imperfect sales in the real estate market is also quite important statistics, since the recovery of the American market is largely tied to the real estate market, and it is in the primary real estate market, because in the secondary real estate everyone is engaged in refinancing mortgages, namely the primary real estate market, construction caused a boom demand and the rise in prices for building materials and construction services and then later in the evening something else.
and the markets will explain to us, but this will already be a procession at 21:00. so friends, let's start with the Russian press and then smoothly move on to the American one. in order not to follow the proverb, we started for health and ended up at peace, we will follow the opposite statement. So as for what is happening in Russia, well, here on the occasion of the hundred days of Biden's presidency, we have previously discussed a lot of news that the rise in food prices in Russia has begun . there is some kind of paradoxical situation with buckwheat prices for buckwheat. nevertheless
, I would like to note that this is a general global trend of rising prices for raw materials has its own specificity to monopolize and monopolize power, it acts on the general world trend of rising prices for raw materials. blowing bubbles as a multiplier that enhances growth. so here are the menacing statements about the new sanctions.
so here is an interesting article about the fact that the share to which many refer to, many adore him, call him Steve Jobs from investing. But in fact, it seems to me that such epithets are not entirely correct, because, let's say, there are a lot of investment geniuses in America. but Steve Jobs he is one of such geniuses as Steve Jobs Ford there were relatively few of them and much less than those who are engaged in investing. therefore, of course, the comparison is flattering, but from my point of view, Steve Jobs should not be compared with the financier, his genius of a completely different kind. So, according to the raid, the main part of the problems in Russia is connected with the fact that Russian people are citizens of Russia, they cannot interact with each other, consolidate and build relationships. perhaps in this he is right, but the main key problem is that a lot of people describe and see the problem with their own eyes, subjectively, few people offer sensible constructive solutions and even fewer can fulfill it. therefore,
those who describe and diagnose their mass, but the key people are those people who, taking into account understanding, will solve problems and accordingly develop everything to grow. also points to. the United States is heading towards decline. in fact, this opinion is very controversial. they have already repeatedly moved towards decline, but due to the fact that, for all its shortcomings, wild American capitalism has the greatest vitality and the greatest power of self-regulation. therefore, all the previous decline of the United
States somehow decided to get out of the situation to get out. so of course he is a genius in something. but how many lives by a medal and how long the United States exists . and so there is enough such a thing, it can turn out to be very unpleasant, which is that Biden offered to lift tough sanctions from Iran. but here, on the one hand, there are constant incidents of some kind between American and Iranian ships, they periodically pop up in the press, but not always, and at the same time, it seems that this is a completely logical position. that is, first
try to influence to force and then give some kind of benefit. here the situation is in what can be negative in that if tough sanctions are lifted from Iran, then a huge flow of oil will pour into the market. what will happen to oil prices can only be guessed at. and then different scenarios are possible here that are not very good for the world oil industry, including for russia. but firstly, this is the decline in oil prices , and secondly, the use of various competitive geopolitical mechanisms in order to remove those who pump the wrong oil from the market. and this is perhaps the most unpleasant and harsh thing that can happen. so
about the main idea that the United States they went in the wrong place that China will grow, China will become the dominant. I would like to draw your attention to the fact that at the heart of everything is the idea of the American idea. no one offered anything better than her . the idea that underlies China, from my point of view, for most people, especially given the speed of information exchange in the 21st century, it is absolutely not attractive. among other things , processes are taking place in China that are not yet sufficiently visible, but they can lead to an unfavorable development of the situation in the Chinese economy. therefore, from my point of view, the genius of the raid is probably still there. But as for
China, there will be some kind of splash up. and then we will see a very strong pullback downward. so friends and moving on to American news to what is happening in the United States, of course, we are now focusing on yesterday's decision of the FRS, it kept rates. At the same time, a new new judgment has appeared that compares the bunch of Biden Powell with Reagan Walker and draws attention to the fact that in fact they are the antipode.
why. because Reagan and Walker were driving wild capitalism and business. and Biden Powell, they are sharpened to stimulate consumer demand to help keep afloat and what is now fashionable to call the socialist United States of America. of course there is some truth in this, a grain of truth. but here we must
clearly understand that those times and the problems that Reagan and Walker faced were qualitatively different and significantly different from the problems that Biden and Powell faced when Reagan and the wolves began to take America out of an unpleasant economic situation when, in general, it began everyone tunes in and the modern technological world is born precisely in those years then the printing press did not work with such monstrous power . and therefore it was precisely the development and stimulation of business that it had to play a key role. This is exactly what happened in the current realities when a crisis of overproduction occurred for certain items of goods and services . But the same iPhones, with all their advantages, you will not buy new ones every six months or three months . therefore, we approached a certain fee and, accordingly, a situation arises here when it is necessary to try to stimulate to keep demand while the technological structure of the economy is taking place. therefore, on the one hand, Biden Powell and Reagan Walker can be said to be the antipode. on the other hand, it is necessary to clearly
understand that the problems that they solved with what they fought they are absolutely qualitatively different and what was useful and important then it would now be lethal. just a collapse. here it is also necessary to pay attention to the fact that despite the criticism of Biden that he kind of takes from the rich and passes on to the poor yes. that is, this certain stimulation of earnings is taking place. but here it is necessary to clearly understand
that, taking into account the species, an even greater stratification occurred. there is a group of countries with a very high life index, that is, a very strong stratification of society from the developed countries of Western Europe and so on. America possesses one of the highest income stratification in society. and in this respect it is generally analogous to Russia. that is, in terms of the level of stratification inherent in child capitalism, the United States and the Russian Federation are twin brothers. Of course, the situation in Europe is not the same. but at the
moment the United States needs to do something about it because it is a stratification that Americans have always been proud of and said that it makes people move forward. yes it is, but in the current realities this stratification is a consequence of bubbles of excess financial funds that pour in and generate cost inflation . and therefore, from my point of view, the actions of Biden's actions are absolutely correct in the current realities, it is necessary to reduce this very disproportion. life index, that is, to reduce the difference between the very rich and the poor, because otherwise the really United States cannot get a crisis in general of this whole American idea and, as a result, a general negative world attitude and large social political economic problems of the United States. therefore, at the moment, despite all the criticism, I think Biden's policy is largely fair and economically justified. as soon as this ratio the inequality that has arisen by the linguist will begin to decline and return to normal. accordingly,
here it will be necessary to show reason and turn off all these taxes, all these bonuses that redistribute money from the very rich to the very poor. here is my vision of this whole situation. and so there is a huge controversy, the struggle is worth it. Is it worth raising
taxes in what amount of real estate ? By the way, they try not to touch it because real estate is now generally a rebound driver, a driver of economic growth. and it is very interesting that in yesterday's speech by Powell, everyone noticed such a word foam, that is, many markets or some kind of markets were remembered. that is, inflated with disproportionate to how necessary. Well, really if you look at the change in
market capitalization and, accordingly, how it is. that is, how the value of the company relates to income to profit which the company is now in the situation, to put it mildly, not. but on the other hand, when there is cheap money, it is quite natural that such bubbles inflate money cheaply and invest in everything that can earn some income different from some basic key rate. Well, as a consequence of the policies of monetary policy, we see the situation of the asset at the moment whom capitalization ahead of US high-tech stock market. but here it is clearly necessary to understand
that in addition to just a bubble, there is still such a moment as a change in the technological order, the emergence of new technologies that have firmly entered our life, like computers entered the 70s and 80s, which means that this is Beethoven forever. no, maybe not forever, but at the moment the currency loan, it plays a rather tangible role in the economy and it is unlikely that its role will decrease despite the bans, despite the fact that many central banks do not like this state of affairs. it is necessary to clearly understand that this is a new technology, it is an alternative to a social structure when decentralization is carried out when the decision-making center is control of power and so on, it is distributed between the community and as a result, in addition to the ridge of madness, as it is called, it was carried out by when all sorts of interesting assets such as game drain or into heaven but in fact someone says that a bubble was inflated there. I believe that there is no contradiction here because any market value is what people are willing to pay for some kind of service or product. and many people who say that this is worth unfair, it is not worth so much. they
forget that key definition. market value is what people think they are willing to pay for it. how it is caused. roughly speaking, a person walks through the desert, he needs water or with the help of marketing he has inflated some kind of idea. this is another question, and
from my point of view, in the current realities of society, this is technical in nature. that is, those people who say there is no real need for real assets here. Well, yes, there in the 30s 40s 50s when there were factories and there really is a question of real assets that can be touched or that produce something, it was relevant. now everything has come down to the fact that very quickly there is a change in people's needs and they may find different things today very interesting and are ready to pay for it tomorrow. that is, it was always the same tulips in Holland in Holland that arose in the 17th century, if I am not mistaken.
but then it was on the verge of absurdity because then there was no such rapid exchange of information. Now is the age of fast Internet interaction to inflate bubbles and it happens very quickly 2 blades and so on. Well, here it’s just the psychology of people. Well, I don’t know how well or badly it matched the speed of information exchange in a new stream. and therefore from the point of view of how the pricing of his sociology and psychology takes place, I think there is nothing like that here. this is just a manifestation of the fact that the current situation and the speed of information exchange, it is in this way forms the market value. first, the
consciousness of people then on the graph, so friends, let's move on to the graph like this, but that's what I wanted to say in terms of weight by weight, despite all the seemingly positive that they will print money and so on, there is no special reduction, as he was in this consolidation and is still. that is, this suggests that certain risks are inherent in the system and in fact no one has any illusions that at any moment everything cannot fall out and be significantly corrected, so on, the dollar index is also trying to postpone the daily chart today. Well, here, in fact, given the way it came down yesterday , it is very likely that the movement towards the weakening of the dollar will continue. and here the first target is first at 80 96 then at 89 2. but there is a certain
moment every time he moves, certain intersection points arise which can lead to the development of a very energetic rebound. in this case, such a point is here in the region of 90 97 hundredths. if he jumps out here and breaks it, then the movement will go to the strong level of 91 and a half. until such
prerequisites have been formed. but today there is a mass of macroeconomic data that can propel him to this. for futures here we have a continuous growth on the air for a day without a record . but on the air, I think the need is ripe for a correctional rollback to occur. perhaps even if you are lucky, the rollback will be somewhere here at 2300.
and here there is a magic line that's two thousand 160 1150 to break through which can lead to the fact that a very strong correction will develop on it friends further brent oil . Well, look here, we have a situation leading to testing on straight line 68 if 68 breaks. so friends for today this issue will be resolved will break through will not break through 68 if it breaks through, then today or on Monday we can see a movement at 70. but here, switching to an hour Savik, we now have a consolidation for oil, this consolidation has a lower limit of 67 25 and an upper limit of 67 77 68. here, if this legal norm is now being formed on the volume, then we can already see a movement at first 68 five then around 70. taking into account the fact that Friday, probably today, all the same, such a movement will not happen.
it seems more logical to me now to rebound from these values and movements in order to test 67 25. and in case of this value for oil, we will leave to look for support in the area of 66 8. here , if I come here, I do not defend quickly from here, then a downward movement is very likely at 66 and beyond, it may continue. You see for yourself the oil is really a charge of very powerful vigor and all the straits that occur, they pay off quite energetically. news on iran and india that come out can certainly cause a significant reversal and risks of a corrective pullback. But if everyone is already accustomed to India, then about the lifting of sanctions against Iran, any sudden statements here can very significantly correct the picture and cause the strait down to 62 and a half and below. so friends further concerning
gold. Well, look at the gold at 1800, we didn't go the spirit of the FRS was not enough to push it up. but nevertheless there were very interesting movements in gold yesterday. сегодня с утра тоже оно пыталось отыграться на текущий момент золото находится в консолидации 1783 1774. соответственно прямой верхней границы и здесь закрепление будет выталкивать на 1800 и нижней границы увидят его на 1766. на текущий момент сейчас давайте откроем так у нас по часам сейчас произошел разворот и идет движение цель которого сходить сюда на 1773 1775. возможен задержка в эту область
до 1770 1773 если будет пробудет область то уходит оно сначала на 1800 62 и потом будет пытаться консолидироваться накопить силы в район 1766. ну и соответственно правой и нижней почки 1761 и ниже приведет к тому что золото насчет очень сильно корректироваться пока на текущий момент это в большей степени похоже на коррупционный откат. и пока нету уверенного пробить и 1766 говорить о том что золото начинает падать я думаю преждевременно. весьма вероятно что сейчас это снижение оно продлится куда то сюда и по факту набора позиций отсюда пойдет обратный отскок. так друзья евро доллар дневной. ну смотрите здесь на самом деле цели движения до конца еще не выполнили.
на что хотел бы обратить внимание. опять же вот этот уровень который 1250 соответственно пока этот уровень 1250 1240 евро будут выкупать и гнать сюда к старому рубежу. ну исходя из четырех часового а.ефремов сейчас идет движение цель которого сходить на 1,2 2 это движение не происходит в том случае если сейчас здесь начинается консолидация и про 21 50. в этой ситуации мы увидим движение на 21 83. но на текущий момент я думаю все таки более вероятно движение куда то сюда и по факту достижения 1,2 83 86 до набор позиций и попытка отскок. так друзья отдали
рубль доллар до четырех часов ставлю. вчера было размещение но оно такое средняя по овд там по моему что то в районе 20 или 30 миллиардов разместили. но на самом деле на текущий момент пока больше не нужно этого вполне достаточно сейчас немножко мы не падали до 74 и 1. тем не менее вот здесь сформировалась попытка разворота целей разворота возврат на 74 94 в случае до боя бой вот этого значения 74 3:1 у нас движение будет конечная находиться между двумя желтыми линиями вот этими на текущий момент я думаю вероятность такого движения не очень высока она реализуется если будет движение нефть 70 и далее наверх. в текущих реалиях
здесь более вероятен коррупционный отскок. с моей точки зрения переходя на часовые здесь ближайшая цель движение находится на 74 8. соответственно сценарий не реализуется если сейчас идет движение вниз и 84 2. так друзья дали фьючерсы на индекс ртс. здесь у нас идет движение целью 154 и соответственно осталось до него совсем чуть чуть.
но на текущий момент вполне здесь все созрело для того чтобы немножко катиться и сходить в район ста сорока восьми тысяч 500. но вот сейчас на часы реке мы с вами видим сейчас 9 53 здесь попытка разворота и в случае если она реализуется то отсюда пойдет коррупционный откат целью 149 тысяч. если все таки здесь возникает правовой 150 тысяч 600 то мы сегодня увидим отработку 150 2500. я думаю здесь все таки более логично какой то координационный.
цель это 149 500 и в случае если здесь не удерживается пробивает 149. следующая цель это 148 300 148. соответственно если откат затягивается и возникает 147 тысяч то мы увидим более существенное движение вниз цель которого будет в районе 143 500. так друзья далее сбербанк но здесь уже игрища идут с прибытием уровня 296. чем дольше он удерживает это значение диапазон 296 300 и здесь торгуются тем больше вероятность того что в ближайшее время пойдет движение сначала на 320 потом на 340 так и часовой. сейчас сбер находится в консолидации верхняя граница консолидации под сжатый 299 и 3 нижней границы 297 5 сейчас более вероятно в движении к нижней границе если она не будет пробиться отсюда пойдет возврат на движение прямой и уход выше трехсот. если здесь все таки возникает прибой то мы пойдем искать поддержку на 296 сюда вот к этому значению так друзья газпром берут четырех часовой тайм.
здесь у нас идет сейчас движение цель этого движения сначала прийти на 234 потом попытаться отсюда сходить и пробить 230 75. соответственно весь этот сценарий на рост он отменяется или откладывается если пойдет коррупционные откаты будет пробить значение 230 пока 230 не будут гонять его вверх и вперед переходя на часовой. а.ефремов находится в консолидации 232 233. как только будет эта верхняя граница пробиться на объеме сразу отсюда импульс движение цель которого будет 230 514 сюда. если все таки мы убиваем
230 231 и 5 отсюда у нас идет движение вниз цель которого будет 229 230. так друзья далее вопрос был по ммк металлург созвучно с гмк но не гмк дневной. здесь у нас сегодня вчера очень хорошо падали но его купили его купили и сейчас отсюда будет попытка отскок цель которого 69 и 369 опять отскок не сработает если будет возврат на движение вниз и прямой 64 63 8. в этой ситуации полетит на 58 и 8 вот сюда к этому значения здесь пока больше факторов указывают на то что будет коррупционный отскок и по 4 часа. мы по ммк находимся в консолидации и соответственно
движение будет определяться в какую сторону произойдет. судя по новому графику больше шансов на то что будет движение вверх и попытка сходить на 68 5. но вот этот уровень 63 8 если он пробивается пойдет движение вниз. на текущий момент больше факторов указывает
на традиционный отскок вверх. друзья все основные инструменты спасибо за внимание. если вам понравилось подписывайтесь на канал. всего наилучшего.