The U.S. Vs Russia, on a course of collision? - Jerusalem Studio 324
Shalom. And welcome to Jerusalem studio. Rhetoric. From Washington, and Moscow has intensified, over the western response, to us as alleged, use of chemical weapons, with the most hostile, warnings, of possible, direct confrontation. Between the two superpowers and dangers. A regional, conflict from possibly, turning global, to, further discuss the tension between the, United States and Russia over Syria, I'm John Chandler studio by dr. Alan, Lehman was the vice president, of the Jerusalem Institute, for Strategic Studies and, a lecturer at Shalem College welcome Michael. So to welcome our tv7 analyst, mr. Emil Olin and. Professor. At Frank um who's a senior researcher, at the Institute, for national security studies and, dr., Neil bones who's a research fellow at the machete on Centre at Tel Aviv University welcome. Mr.. Owen give us a broader, understanding of, the current situation. The. United, States at, least in. Its national. Security and foreign policy. Structure. Not. The political. Echelon, views. Russia, as what it calls a near peer, adversary. And. While. The. United States is supposed to be the only remaining, superpowers. Superpower. Russia. Because, of what, the Americans, viewers its aggressive, policy, is, now, threatening, its, dominance, so. This is. Across. A very broad front. Which. Includes, cyber. Meddling. In elections, the. Ukraine, the. Russian. Resistance to, missile. Defense in. Europe but. Most. Urgently. Over, the last few, weeks it. Came to a head in Syria, because, the Russians have, denied that. Bashar, Assad their Protege has used chemical weapons against. His own people because, the Russians, have. Taken. Assad, under, their wing and resist. The American, intervention there and because, the Russians are dense to stay while, President. Trump has already announced, that his intention, is to bring the boys home dr., Lerman leading, up to the attack. Of the. United States France and Britain, Russia. Has voiced various, rhetoric, with regard to the the possible. Confrontation. Between the two, superpowers. With. The, height of the event, pointing. To any. Missile, that. Would, be fired would be shot down and even the. The. Silos. That the, missiles are fired from would, be targeted, in a response something that didn't materialize but. This rhetoric, was made to. What degree is, this, just. Rhetoric, or is there something beyond, that well. Russia. Basically. Is by. Now a, second-tier, power let's, let's be in in everything, but one aspect which, is its military, capabilities and. Its. Ongoing. Investment. In advanced, technology, military. Technology, it is behind in every other respect, let's. Not forget this is for, us you know which sit in Israel we'll look at the bear it's it's a big animal it's, a caged bear, who. Is a, nation, ten times its population, to itself, and then. Alliance 20, times their GDP, to, their West so. This, is really the the I think the epitome, of being. Passive aggressive, the. Basic, situation a point of departure is defensive. Fragile. And vindictive. Having basically. Lost. With. The collapse of the Soviet Union, huge, realms, of, Russian.
Control That have been built since the 16th century it, came, to the point in which they were almost looking, at the possibility. Of death, of NATO spreading. To the depe and. Into the Caucasus, in, 2008. So it was touch-and-go and, and they reacted, very aggressively, with what they have so. Their ability to survive, in a complicated. World, largely, rests, on their ability to, stay ahead in the military, sense in military, technology, this. Is why they were very sensitive. To. The post the. Prospect, over the Americans, basically. Being, free to do within Syrian, territory, as they wish when they however. At, the end of the day no, Russian, in his right mind would actually, risk, firing, at, an. American. Naval. Asset, of, trying to shoot down an American plane, during. Such operations, because this would bring, long. Before, it brings you to a minute to live. Nuclear. Confrontation it would bring. Immense. American, capabilities, upon their heads so this. Was. Bravado. And. Little more than that at the end of the phase all come I. Think. That needless to say that the. Russians don't like either gonna like an attack not is already attack but. Having said that I, want. To suggest that it is a limited blow from the Russian viewpoint also from our viewpoint, it, is limited one thing to the use of the, Assad regime in. Chemical. Chemical, warfare. Capabilities, that's it it, is not affecting, the stability, of the Assad regime it, is not affecting, the position, of the Russians in in, the Syrian territory, it is not affecting the relationship, between Russia, and Iran. Or. In a solution. So. They can use it big, question is what will come next, and we don't know we. Have to take into account that this, is not the end. Of the story it can continue dr.. Bombs, history. Sometimes, tends to repeat itself if you took the beginning. Of the Crimean, War in 1853. You. Have a crisis. Over the Church of the Holy Sepulchre, who are the ones playing, that game which the Turks and it's, the, Russians and then, we're the ones who are coming afterwards it's the British and the France the same players. Who now have been involved, in the recent Syria. Story if you're looking 30 years ago when, we had the the. Collapse of the Soviet, Union we are beginning to speak about the unipolar, world, there, are books like dots of Huntington, and that of Fukuyama speaking about the New World Order, and it actually lasted for quite some time partially, because Russia. That. Inherited. Some of the Soviet Union has really. Weaker and even it had remained weak but a few things have changed one of them in the American side is that particularly in the last decade. Under President. Obama part. Of the, mindset. Was that UNEP our world or not you know we are redrawing. We are leading, from behind or, leaning somewhere, else and there are many arenas that we don't really need to take the lead and on the other hand you have people in, the region and people in Russia like Putin or say you know we actually do and it's about time that we will reassert, our, identity, and we are searched for we are so, these two. Holes, are, beginning to create something different which, began. To emerge a little bit like another. Wave, of another. Round of a Cold War and, when it comes to allies when it comes to a crisis. Points when it comes to. Alliances. And old alliances, like in the case of Syria all of a sudden he says well look the Americans, have abandoned, and haven't had a track record of abandoning allies the Russians are saying you know what we're going to do it a little bit differently, this is perhaps the very broad sense. Of this, dynamic, and then you need to start delving, into, the details, but one of the messages that came from Russia is we have allies we're going to stick with them and now the, American under, new, leadership SAR saying wait a minute we're not sure. That we're, continuing. To lead from behind and, now you, have a confrontation mr.. Owen when, we're talking about what, dr., bonds just mentioned, about the vacuum that, occurred.
During The Trudeau, Bhama administration. And the course of, various. Actions, that actually. Permitted. The. The Russian forces to enter and. To. Make new dealings. With different countries and of course the the nuclear agreement with Iran did also permitted, Moscow. To make dealings, on different, levels, with Islamic, Republic, the. Syria, arena has become, somewhat. Of a platform of, public. Relations to Middle Eastern countries, for Moscow with, regard. To its vocal. And adamant, pursuit. Of showing, that it stands by its allies and is capable of doing so to, what degree does. This actually. Affect, the, United States is positioned. Towards Moscow. Is it somewhat. Applying. Causality, where we see various actions, by Moscow. Predicting. Various, effects by the. Trump administration, I'd. Like to speak in defense of the Obama administration. One. Thing always, leads to another and, there, is always, reaction. To what your predecessor. Did and Obama, came after, Bush, who went, into, the Middle East following, 9/11, after. Clinton, tried to go out following. Bush senior. Going, into, Iraq and so on and so forth after Reagan having, fled. Beirut. Following. The October 1983. Bombing. Of the Marine Barracks, and one can go back on and on now. One. Of the differences between Putin, and Trump is the Putin, like many Russians is mindful, of history, while. Trump. Is completely, ignorant, and couldn't, care less Putin. Wants to revert to the heyday of the Russian. Empire under, various guises and. He. Totally, rejects, the, policy. Of Mikhail, Gorbachev, which brought about in. Putin's. Opinion, the, demise of the Soviet empire. So. Putin, is proactive. And as. Aaron said vindictive. Aggressive. Expansive. Trump. On the other hand brings to mind the famous, line by Sarah Palin who, said that from her window in Alaska, she can see Russia across. The Bering Strait which is a, bit. Too. Minimal work ya know it's, it's five to ten miles she can't really see that that far but, it is true that the only place where Russia, almost. Porters the United States is. Next. To Alaska, and for. President, Trump wants. America. First bring. America, home he, wants to remain between, the world on. The Mexican border which is yet to build and the, Canadian, border which is fine it's his kind of people and the, two oceans he, doesn't, want to be involved in Syria he. To get out the sooner the better and has, said mission accomplished. I am the president, I will decide what, is the mission and when, it is over and I'm now saying that we won as Senator. Aiken of Vermont said let's say we want and get, nevertheless, when we hear French president, American, dr. Elman saying. That they, managed to convince President Trump to remain in. Syria to at least leave, a certain presence in Syria that would tear both Russians, as well as other regional. Powers from taking, actions. That would be counterproductive to, the stability of the region to, what degree is that actually, going on, forward well, it depends on how you read would trump sit because I, agree, that he has his basic instinct is bring the boys home but, if you you. Look at the actually. Three, or four sentences strung, together what. You will say is we need others, to pitch in the purpose is the same purpose, but we need others to come in so in other words he's being as, usual, very transactional. He. Wants more Saudi money more. Allied more, Arab, and more international. Inputs. So. That burden. Of sustaining, the SDF and the. That, quarter. Of Syria that, is held against, Iran's wishes, and the, burden of doing so should be spread. More evenly not, just on American, shoulders this. Goes back to the fighting, in, which for the first time America, I think one of the few, cases I remember, in, which Americans, actually killed Russians. That. Hug I think there were a few cases in which Russians, killed Americans. Over. Flights you too etc, but. Even. In Cuba the Americans, never actually killed, Russia but is a mercenaries, not, an. Ares that work, for somebody personally very, close to put it so. They could not possibly be, there without his blessing and so. The events of that at the Battle of the bridges in the Arizona in February are very, telling. I think, he wants to bring, the boys home only. Says when and if I can do so once, the French and, the Saudis. And the UAE and others who want to block the Iranian, presence in eastern Syria have pitched in to be of help, nevertheless we here also compel during his hearing. Boasting. About the American, capabilities, and the ability to kill, about 200, Russians, on Syrian soil some. Appointment. That some say has. Provided. President, Trump with no alternative, but to remain in the region it's not just Pompeo. John, bolton is I. Think focused. Like a laser beam, beam on the. Iranian. Issue, his. Appointment. Is a very strong indication, the laser beams from North Korea to South Korea, - but North Korea is.
Going To be many is already. At the negotiating, table under, very heavy leverage. On. Iran you need to create that leverage you cannot create that leverage, while running away from confrontation, with, Iran on. The post, may 12 situation, that's about to emerge so everything. Should be read running. Into, and, indicating. Where we are coming on the tours I called it recently, a problem, you, should look at what happened in Syria under sevens as a promo for me of a so calm I've, said before that this is not the end of the story one. Of the reasons they said that is that two. Of the major players now in Syria. Russia. And Iran have. No intention, to pull out the forces foreign from Syria Russia. Are limited, in its presence, in Syria pulled. Out some of the forces but at the same time it, concluded, agreement, with Syrians to, use two, military. Bases in Syria an alien, base and naval, base for. 4849. News which means are going to stay there very long a period of time the. Worst case has to do is with with Iran Iran, is not going to withdraw. From Syria. The. Reason is of course Israel, is below its. Attempt. To increase, its influence, both. In Syria and among the neighbors of Syria in, Iraq in Lebanon, and. The. Meaning is that Iran will continue to be calls. For frictions, and, and. I. Would say. All. Swiss Israel for long period of time to what degree does that impact. The relations, between the United States and, Russia, if at all dr. bones well. It certainly brings a new level of tension between the, two countries particularly. When it, appears, it's very close, very. Close. Proximity they. Are almost, fighting each other or, at least fighting, each other's mercenaries, or at least fighting their, proxies. Are supporting, the jaxxed. Opposing, proxies, and this is what's have been happening the other piece is that if. You again if you zoom out and we're looking at all. Sorts of other issues from. The. Election. Story where Russia is involved, where President, Trump is. Inflated. With a number of personnel. They. Mentioned it has to do with business dealings, and with political, dealings where, Russia has something. To do with just. To remind our. Viewers that the Americans and the Russians have actually been supposedly. Somewhat. Coordinated. On a whole series of agreements, including. Agreements. Regarding the, south part, of Syria including agreement. Regarding the. Entire. Trajectory. Of, how to resolve the Syrian conflict and of course part, of it was also. Reports about the. Americans. Actually heading to Russian. Requests. And stopping, a number of American programs in a way to leave the Russians that the additional, maneuver. Maneuvering. Ability within Syria. So that the Americans can say look we're gonna bring our boys home because, the Russians are doing some of the work for us and all of a sudden it is, reversing. You get yes again and if you're looking just at, the last two, weeks President.
Trump Has been very consistent in its inconsistency. Regarding, the. Statements, about we're coming in or coming out we're gonna take the soldiers we're going to be going to respond but perhaps not now perhaps later we'd ever said where are we going to do it we're, going to bring our boys home but we're going to only bring them afterwards, when you're gonna have somebody else taking their place so all of that perhaps. There, creates. A certain, what's here, we sometimes call constructive, ambiguity if, somebody at least 6 to, find some order and but perhaps there is a a method and perhaps, part of the order is that this tension, is. An attempt of maneuvering. But on the one hand they realized that they're really conflicted, interests here but on the other hand you don't want to start a real round, not of a cold war about of a warm one well mr., Owen I'd like to touch base on Turkey, which has. Slowly. Slowly. Distanced. Itself from, NATO. And. Its. Allies. Within NATO and, and warmed, up with. Regard. To its relations, with Moscow. But, then again the. Worst certain. Situations. Following, the Astana talks where, Iran. Russia, and Turkey had, various, agreements some, agreements, that weren't met on the side of the Russians, and Iranians. In. The perception of the the, leadership, in Ankara which led again to. Different. Comments, relating. To their warming. Of ties against with the United States supporting. The action against, President, Bashar Assad. Supporting. Various. Actions, with regard to the maneuvering, of military, troops and also. Vocally. In various. Support. For the the NATO, alliance, considering. The fact that the, leader of NATO or the the commander of NATO visited. Oncologist. Recently to what degree is, this. Somewhat. Of an illustration, of, regional. Powers, on the one hand trying to show that they want to diversify, in, the direction of Moscow, but when the time comes to the. Bottom line Washington. Has no alternative. Washington. May have no alternative, but Ankara. Does and this is perhaps the major development. Outside of what has happened within. Syria, itself what, you just described, is a. Major. Development, in. What. Has happened in the American, Russian relationship. Because. Turkey has. Been a stalwart. Member of NATO, from. The beginning, it had the. Second, largest. Armed. Force it, helped the United States in in Korea, during. The war in many other respects, of course, out of. What it perceived, to. Be its self-interest. Because it was threatened. By Russia. What, near. Earlier. Talked about the Crimean War the. Traditional. Alliance. Was between Turkey, and Germany. Against. Russia. And Serbia Germany, also is karate and other other places and only. After, World War two when. The Americans, gradually. Took over from, Great Britain the, leadership, in the Middle East the Americans only entered the Middle East first by, the way into, Turkey the, the pretext, was the. Death of the Turkish. Ambassador to, Washington a goon, whose. Body was carried to Turkey. Aboard. The u.s. a u.s. battleship. And this. Was the beginning of the 6th fleet obviously. President, Trump knows all of this I'm just repeating it. But. Apparently. President. Erdogan, has. Now concluded that, he is not going to be accepted, into the European. Union that. He is not going to get from NATO what, he wants he, has, bought the Americans from using in, Cilic airbase, in, this latest attack. On. The Syrian, chemical. Installations. He, is now in the Russian orbit and this, this, is due to one, simple fact Syria, is as, symmetrically. Between. Russia. And the United States Trump, couldn't care less about Syria, for Putin it is a very big deal, this is topic that we will have to come. Back and revisit in the future dr., lemon when we're. Talking about Israel in the midst of all, those different developments, in this region, and its relations. Both with Moscow, and Washington obviously. The. Alliance with the United States has no alternative for, Israel but it is, playing a key, component. Within, all those different developments, to what degree does Israel, have the. Ability, to maneuver, and tread carefully in, the situation, considering, well, clearly.
If We. Ever forced. To choose there's. No question but. It. Has been a consistent, policy of, Israel, and, I think wisely so, in. The last decade, to. Keep channels, open, to the Russians to, map. Out the, areas. Of, common. Interest to explain. To the Russians again and again and sometimes was very blunt and even, violent, messages. Of action, on the ground that. Russian, the Russian interest, in asset survival, would be put at risk if Assad, goes with the Iranians, into. What, we consider to be dangerous, adventures. What, makes this dialogue, with Russia possible. What, keeps the door open is, not. Only, at, the strategic, and, the. Cold-blooded. Conversation. About interests, but also a certain. Sentimental. Element, let's remind. Ourselves that Israel, is the only country in, the last 15. Years to dedicate. A monument, to, the Red Army in the tanya will in the presence, of President Putin, who came specially, for the event let's. Let, it put me put it otherwise, and, against the background of our current crisis, was Poland we. Still. Among. The few who can appreciate. That, Ribbentrop was worse than Molotov mm-hmm, the. Russians know that we have certain, sentimental. Commonalities. And, not, to mention that they look upon Israel, as a country which is in their mind roughly, 20 percent made. Of sons, of the homeland, not of anything from Russia many came from the Ukraine but there are Russian speakers, and their Russian and the. Russians considered them to be to, some extent a bridge, including a defense minister, in 2008 defence minister whose most Davian but speaks excellent Russian and and. Communicates. With the Russians and these. Channels of communication, absolutely, vital this is why Israel for example has. Dodged, the bullet on Salisbury we. We. Need our channels, to Russia open. At this time professor, come I think. Israel is not concerned, so much about the Russian behavior in Syria. Because. So. Does see some does identify. Some even advantages, in the Russian, presence, in Syria is, that as one problem in sir which, is Iran, and. Israel's. Aim is to limit as much as possible the Iranian activities in Syria and remove the Iranians. Outside of Syria which is possible it's not it's not easy to I would. Emphasize when what emphasize, one point I think, in this game in, the same territory. Israel. Does, direct, advantage, over the gun because. Israel, is one one. Capability. Who ask abilities, and. Capabilities to, give me the alien presence and, activities, in in. Syria Iran doesn't have such capabilities. Is. It can attack Iranian, forces you didn't capabilities. And, cannot respond in, a way we should see what Iran is going to do now after the Union is ready attack Iranian. Sites. But I don't, think it could do too much and. I think all in all taking, the two players, Israel, and Iran I think they great, advantage, to the on the side of his life so, and, I think he does not know that very, very well and trying. To the, game among. These. Limitations. We have. To see how long they can continue it doctor, bombs the. Israeli. In this Russian. Interests, have a, number, of things in common part.
Some Of them has to do with Iran there, is note an, ideological. Divide this is not this. Is far different. Than the Cold War and where you have an also an ideological, camp when, it comes to, Syria. The, Israel, I think is overall even fairly comfortable, and that's something that actually became perhaps even, more acute with the Israeli Russian relationship, following, the Obama period when they realize if Americans, are not here well somebody needs to be here and Israel obviously cannot, do it alone so, if, Russia wants to take over some and, become stronger and and take over some of the oil, and gas deals that potentially. Is acceptable. When, it comes to Iran Israel also realized, this is that, the Russian does not want to see you run take over partially because really, they want to be the game here because he would not like to see around the game makers but were there frictions, there are frictions, because when, it comes with a tactical dimension, well first of all the Iranians were the ones who did the dirty work the Iranians are the ones who did it there to work on the ground Russians had, taken 24, airplanes and had attempted to provide the umbrella and, in some of the support and they entered fairly late and if taking a much, bigger part of the pot, but, the Iranians are the ones who did this and the Russian understand is also the Russians would like to make sure that they keep their influence. With everyone including, of the Iranians and here. Is where you have the frictions when the Russians are saying look we, are going to do. This for, you let, us do it that Israel is saying with all the respect you're catering to. Russian interests we have our own we're, drawing near to the end of the program, and I have one more question actually to dr., Elman with regard to the. Point that you made earlier about. American. Demands of sharing, the burden among other regional. Powers is Israel. Also one of those countries. That the. United States sees. As should, take. Part in sharing the burden or is it exempt, indirectly. Yes insofar, as we, are as. You, as fine and others have said here we, keep, the Iranians, in check but, what they are looking, at is for the Saudis, in particular to. Look beyond, their current engagement, in Yemen if they, want a regional. Balance against Iran they should do more than they, are doing now in terms of money and resource well, this is all the time that we're for today so I'd like to think that the Lealman mr., Olin professor come in dr. bones for coming here today and like to think of yours as well and we'll see you next time.
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