PubTalk 1/2018 — ShakeAlert: Path to West Coast EQ Early Warning
Good. Evening everyone welcome to, the evening lecture series. My. Name is Robert de croo I am the, National. Coordinator for communication, education outreach or, the shakealert program and, it's. My great pleasure tonight to introduce, you, to Doug Gibbon and, I'll. Tell you a little bit about him but. One thing before we get started I wanted to spend a second, to remind you about February's. Evening. Lecture the. USGS Cascades Volcano Observatory talk. That's being given on February 22nd. Again at 7:00 p.m. and. There. Are fliers in the back the. Other piece. I wanted to mention as well is that there are shakealert. Handouts, FAQ sheets in the back as well so please feel free to take, one take two take one home to a friend whatever you like but, they're available in the back and they'll, provide, you with more information about. The, program that, you can learn later on there's also links. To websites and those sorts of things, so. I'd like to introduce Doug given, he. Is the, USGS. National, earthquake, early warning coordinator. And he, coordinates USGS. State. Organizations, and universities and private companies to build the shakealert, earthquake, early warning system. For the west coast of the US, the. Shake alert demonstration. System became operational, in California, in 2012, and in the Pacific Northwest in 2015, in February. 2016, the more capable, production, prototype was, completed on a year a year. Later extended to the Pacific, Northwest, with. This Verte with this version USGS. Began soliciting real-world. Pilot, implementations. At. USGS, has the goal of regionally. Limited. Public notifications. In 2018. This year a little. Bit of background about Doug he joined the USGS, in 1978, he's on his 40th, year which, is much. Longer I've only been with the USGS, for about two years so he has a lot of years on me so I'm learning a lot from him every single day he. Has pursued. Research, into, the seismicity and technic tectonics, of Southern California, and conducted, field investigations. Several large earthquakes including Haiti, in 2010 he. Managed the Southern California seismic network for 19 years Doug. Has been instrumental in the development of, several automated. Earthquake, processing, systems and was a prime architect. Of the, advanced national seismic system, quake management, system. Doug. Is also an adjunct professor of geology. At Pasadena, City College he's. Been doing this since 1991, he. Is a lifetime, resident of Southern California, and lives with his wife and La Crescenta, two. Blocks from the Sierra Madre fault that's that's something we couldn't do in Southern California so yeah I spent 17 years living on the hanging wall of the Hollywood, Fault so we typically, discussed, this geography. He. Is an elder in the Presbyterian, Church USA, and. Enjoys hiking reading, guitar, and genealogy. So I'd. Like to welcome. Doug, tonight for a talk, about shakealert, thank you very much thank you enjoy. Yeah. With that intro it sounds almost like you should be considering. Whether to date me or not I. Like. Long walks on, the beach and. Well. I want to thank you all for coming, out this evening, to. Hear about this really exciting, technology. That the USGS is is, bringing, to bear to reduce, the, impacts. Of earthquakes, in the west coast of the United States my. Goal tonight is to describe. The current status of the system a, little bit of the history of how we got here and a lot about the, challenges. That this, project, has, and. To describe what you can expect in this year, 2018. In. What we're calling a limited, public rollout. And. I'll, explain what that means and, what some of those limitations are. I want. To start though with this, slide the. Far, right side shows, a lot of logos and, that is there to emphasize, the fact that this is an extremely, collaborative, project. It's, not just USGS. But many other organizations. Include, well I'm not going to read them all because we take too long but, University, partners, state, agencies, and, others, are. Working, together to, realize this and we actually need more partners. To, consume. Not, to consume to consummate, the.
The. Finalization, of this it's. Our goal to do earthquake. Early warning in the three states of the West Coast. Washington. Oregon and California and, this, slide illustrates why we're concentrating, on the west coast of the United States this, is an estimate, of the impacts. And losses, due, to earthquakes, in the United States on an annualized, basis. And so. You can see those numbers, end with bees billions. Of dollars of losses and again this is an annualized, idea. And so, that means that when the big one does occur. Even, though it's infrequent, the losses are going to be huge and then, spread out over, years. You, can see that they're still six, billion dollars, of losses now, most of these losses have to do with infrastructure, buildings. And roads and so forth and earthquake. Early warning is not going to be able to mitigate all, of those losses but, it will mitigate some of them and reduce the impact and make our, society more, resilient. To bounce, back from damage. Caused by those earthquakes. I. Can't. That's, not an earthquake. The. Earthquake. Hazards. Program of, the US has the mission of reducing death injury, and property damage in, earthquakes, and to do that we do a number of different activities we assess the seismic, risks long-term, we conduct research into, the risk and the underlying part we provide, earthquake, monitoring, and, notification. That, notification is the, category, that shakealert, falls into and we also build public awareness and shakealert is going to be instrumental, in that as well the. Pictures on this slide are the, pre-event products. The things that help. Managers. And, insurance. Industry, and others plan for, earthquakes, by characterizing. How bad, the risk is where it is and so. Forth so these are all pre event pre-earthquake. Products. Now. When an earthquake occurs. There, are a number of products, that are produced by you is to help with situational, awareness for, the understanding of what just happened, how do you allocate resources how.
Many Resources do you need to to, bring to bear should you activate, mutual. Aid. Agreements. Or not and so. This continuum, here you can see starts on the Left where the earthquake occurs and then moving to the right I'm going to skip over the red and. We. Traditionally. In the seismic network monitoring. That we do, and have done for decades. Produce. Location. And a magnitude, to, describe what happened, within about a minute or two that's. All automated, and in a lot of ways earthquake, early warning is, doing exactly that same job but just, compressing, the time frame into a few seconds, instead of a few minutes then. Following the earthquake we can send out the. Information through, our event. Notification, system or ENS you can go on the website sign, up and get, an email or text message for, earthquakes, in areas that you are concerned about and that's a free service and it has more than 400,000, subscribers. We. Also do a quick characterization. Of the impacts, of the earthquake shake map is a product, that shows the extent, of ground, shaking, and then, another, of our. Products is called pager, and that. Does. An estimate, of the dollar losses and the fatalities, resulting. From earthquakes worldwide, so. There are a number of products that we provide post. Earthquake but. The, one that we're talking about tonight is shake alert the, earthquake, early warning system. So. The basics, of earthquake early warning the. Fundamental, idea is it. Is not earthquake, prediction, we are not guessing, where an earthquake is about to occur instead, we are detecting, an earthquake that has already begun and doing, that very, very rapidly. We. Have to figure out where the earthquake is how. Big the earthquake, is and ultimately. What impact is going to have what is the resulting ground motion, going to be how hard is it going to shake things is it likely to do damage or not and, we want to do that in just a few seconds, and get that information out, to people, who will be impacted, if. We can do it fast enough. We can actually send warning, information, before, the shaking arrives and that. Is the essence of earthquake early warning information can, move at the speed of light seismic. Waves as you see here move, at a couple of miles per, second through the rocks of the crust. Now. When we think about who can benefit. From this information. They. Fall into two broad categories first. Is people. You. Are people and when. You hear about earthquake early warning. Most. People's reaction, is great, how can I get it when do I get it and how do I use, it and there. Are many things that people can do drop cover and hold on is the advice we currently give when you feel an earthquake and it's, the same advice that we would give you if you hear, an earthquake, early warning alert. You, just get a little extra, time to, do that, protective, activity, but, there are other contexts. That you might find yourself in. If. Your driving might, give you time to slow down and pull, over to the side of the road if you, are in a work situation with, hazardous materials you might be able to protect yourself from, harm. By moving, away from machinery. Or chemicals. Or some. Other hazardous. Area and one. That always resonates. Is if you're on the operating, table you. Would probably, want your doctor to know that things are about to move around.
That's. The people part the. Other category, of things. Automatic. Processes, machinery. Trains. So. You can slow and stop trains here. In the Bay Area you're, all familiar with Bart Bart, has been slowing their trains based on earthquake early warning since. 2012. And so. They were a very early adopter, because they saw the value of slowing. Down their trains. If. A, full, train at rush hour going, at full speed were to derail it, would be the largest mass casualty. Casualty. Incident, in US, history. So. It's. Something you want to prevent. You. Can close valves, you, can stop factories, you. Can do all sorts of things in a, automatic. Environment. And so. The, options. There are actually endless and there are many things, that we I'm sure have, not even conceived of that are possible, uses for earthquake early warning in that automatic, mode. So. Why, don't we have earthquake, early warning no. Talk is complete without a meme so there is our mean I want. It now from, Willy Wonka. I'd. Like to give it to you now but there are some limitations and. Some, challenges, to. Why we cannot yet. Do. Early. Warning for the masses. General. Public, alerting, and I'll describe those so. Those challenges, include limitations. Of resources, in other words funding, this, project is not fully funded and that's, a real. Restriction. To our ability to complete the system and get. Full, scale alerts to, everyone, but. In addition to that we have some bureaucratic, hurdles it's, difficult, to hire within the government, and more. Importantly, it's, difficult, to get environmental. Permits, to, put, in new stations. So. We found that as we, try to build out a large, number of sensors we, run into this problem and. It increases the cost of putting, in stations, and it slows down the, process of, putting, in stations, much, of the west coast is. Controlled. By federal, government, agencies. National. Parks national. Forests, BLM. Land, and those. All require. Environmental. Impact reports and the fact that we're spending federal, dollars, to do. That work means that we still have to meet those environmental, criteria. Even on private lands because. It's a federally, funded project. And that, as I said can be a challenge. There. Are some physical challenges. Due to just the physics of earthquakes and I'll be describing those in, greater detail later and, then the system itself we have to ensure that it's reliable and accurate, and. Doing. So has, its own challenges which I'll also describe briefly and then, a big challenge is just, the ability to get the it's out to, you all. You. May think that that's easy you've got a cell phone you get messages all the time there, is no current, technology, that can do mass communication.
Fast Enough for earthquake early warning to be effective, and we. Are working on that and I'll describe that in greater detail but. The. Silver lining is despite all these challenges, the USGS, is dedicated. To doing limited, public alerting. This, year. The. Funding part. Way. Too much detail on this slide, the. Lower right-hand, box. Shows. Our, original. Estimate for what the cost of completing, the early warning system, would be this. Was a report that we published in 2014. At that time we estimated that, to build out the system for the three states of the West Coast would take another 38 million dollars, and then. It would take 16, million dollars to run it every year. You. Can see our funding profile, in the graph, and in the table on the left-hand side this. Year we, are funded at 10 million dollars, so. It's not even the run at every year number certainly not even close to the build that out number, and so. We are operating. On a shoestring, but. Making, progress nevertheless. Now. It's not all federal funding the state of California, has recently. Allocated. 10 million dollars for the project about, two-thirds of that is going to station build-out the remaining third is going to be used for public education purposes. A state. Of Oregon has funded. Some instrumentation. The, Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation has. Given. Us ten million dollars to advance the, system, and some. Federal funding that passed through first the state and then through the city. Of Los Angeles was. Another 5.6, million dollars for Southern California build-out, so. There, are. Other sources of funding but we still have. Not been able to complete the system with that available. To. Make things just a little more interesting, our, original estimate of, the cost of doing it is under, review where you are, getting really close to really releasing. Revised numbers. And guess what direction the numbers are gonna go. Yeah. They're, going up not, only because of inflation and the fact that we missed some things in the original estimate but, also because, as I said some of the things like putting, stations, in the ground and getting environmental. Approvals. Is more timely, or more time-consuming and, more expensive than we had originally thought. Well. So here's a slide with lots of information over on the right hand side is, map. Of the three states and, a an, approximate, map of station locations, where, some of them are already located and where others are. Anticipated. To be located, this gives you a kind of a big view, of what the system is like the yellow stars, are, the. Alert. Centers, located. In Seattle, the. Bay Area and Southern, California. The. Shake, alert earthquake, early warning. Infrastructure. Is layered. On top of, previously. Existing, seismic monitoring, capabilities. Funded, by the USGS and partners. Sometimes in the States and, these. Seismic networks that have been in operation for years are. Are. Jointly. Run by the, USGS and University partners so in Southern California it's Caltech. In the Bay Area it's Berkeley in the Pacific Northwest University. Of Oregon University, of Washington. The. Path is in the center. Bottom we. Began seriously. Working on shakealert, in 2006. At. That time was mostly research on the science, of detecting, earthquakes rapidly. We, went through a demonstration, phase, operationalized. It and turned, it on in a serious way in 2012. At that time we started to solicit beta users, that. Could see. The signals but we asked them please don't take any actions, based on the alerts because the system is not yet reliable, enough in.
2017. That's. Last year in April. We, made. A very, important, jump. And we said we'd now believe it's reliable. Enough that we are soliciting pilot. Users. Users. That, could actually take. Actions, and start, to develop. Mostly. Those automatic, types of processes. Now we're not soliciting, for individuals, to participate we're, looking for organizations, that. Will, build, capabilities. And lead the way within. Their particular, industries. And, then. This year we are doing the, limited, public rollout. Phase. Of the operation. The. Central. Part of the slide shows the five major, components. Of an earthquake early warning system, those. Five components, running, from left to right are the sensor networks, the. Field. Telemetry, to bring those data back, into. The central processing, sites the Box in the center is that central, processing, which includes, hardware, infrastructure, networking. Computers, and so, forth and then, the scientific. Software that, does the job of detecting the earthquakes. Generating. The alerts. So. You see those are dark. Blue boxes, and there's an arrow below that's the alert generation. Section, of the. Processing, thread. But. The alerts don't do any good unless you send, them to somebody and so, the, next thing you have to do is distribute, those alerts to the users whether they be industrial, users or individuals. And then. Of, course they, have to know what to do with them you, would need some kind of machinery in your factory to automatically. Respond. Or. Individuals. Need education, about, what the system is and how to use its, when you hear an alert so the light blue boxes, are the alert delivery and use part, the. USGS, does, the blue boxes. Generation. But. The light boxes, the distribution of the alerts and the use of the alerts is outside. Of our, capabilities. We depend on companies. On, individuals. On. End-users. To fulfill. That need of the system in that part of the system. Quick. Look at the stations you've already seen a map similar to this one this, shows the current distribution of stations, that are contributing, our plan, called for sixteen, hundred and seventy five stations. To support. The knee of this system. The. Reason for that number is we, looked. At the, area, of those three states and we, did some research about the optimal, spacing for, stations. Turns out that the optimal, spacing is about, 20 kilometers apart, which. Is about 12 miles. Now. In the urban. Areas where there are lots of people and lots of risk we. Settled. For a 10 kilometer spacing. That's, to make sure that the alerts were going to be fast and we could lose a few stations because not all the, equipment stays up all the time and still, have that optimal, spacing.
Outside. Of the urban areas, but. Where there were still earthquake, sources, and some people reuse the 20 kilometer spacing and out in the boonies where, there, aren't very many people or earthquake. Sources, we use 40, kilometer spacing so when we map, that all out we came up with that rather, strange number, 1675. We. Had some existing stations, we've been upgrading, stations we've been adding new stations, so our current station count is 859. At, least the last time I counted and we, continued to work on that number that means we've still got about 800 more, to go and even, some of the stations that are currently contributing are, not as fast, as they could be and need, to be upgraded. We're. Also planning to add a different kind of sensor not a seismic, sensor that measures, the ground velocity. Or ground acceleration. But, GPS. Stations, high rate, GPS. That. Can measure, displacements. Of the ground and those. Are extremely useful for the. Biggest earthquakes, for. Characterizing, the, really huge earthquakes, like. The ones off the Cascadia subduction zone off the Pacific Northwest Coast or huge, San Andreas events. Our. Plans call for 200. Where we're actually have funding for 250, additional stations, in the next year and a half and, that. Will bring, California, up to about a 74 percent completion, and the, Pacific Northwest would be about halfway there. We. Knew that it was going to be a heavy lift to get in all the stations and. So. We concentrated on the urban areas. And so the areas in the red circles, are, near. Or at target, density so. Major. Metropolitan. Areas of LA Bay. And Seattle. Tacoma. Well. This is a look at the interior, of the system this is a very complicated slide but the. Test, will be based on this one I. Don't. Expect you to see. This this is sort of the shock and awe slide. Just. To show you that there's a lot of complicated stuff going on and a. Lot of redundancy, built into the system data, flows from the bottom toward, the top, the. Ground, motion data. Feeds. Into a variety, of computers, at the various, station. Or the various network, processing. Centers and. You can see them named across the bottom Pasadena, Menlo, Park Berkeley. And. Seattle. They. Examine the waveforms their wiggles of the. Ground motions. Derive. Information. From those that we call parameters. When, did it start to move how did it start to move what's the frequency content of that other things like that and. That. Data is shared across. All, of the center's so that means every computer, in every Center has access, to all the data for the entire West Coast and. That's. Redundant, feature so that we can lose any station, or any Center. And still. Stay up and generate. Our alerts. Once. An event is declared. That information. Pops up to the top level and that's the decision-making, level. Where alerts would be generated. Those. Are in a secure, cybersecurity. Environment. And they, are have public, facing servers in this case public facing, means the alerts are going to the end users. But not individuals. But to distribution. Mechanisms. Or, to companies. Well. Let's talk about earthquake, physics. You've. Probably heard somewhere in your academic, career that, earthquakes, generate a variety of waves. There, are more than just these two but let's talk about P waves primary, waves and S, waves secondary, waves, when. An earthquake occurs those, slip on a fault and that slip. On the fault causes. Elastic. Waves to radiate out from where that slip occurs and. The. P wave moves. Fastest, but it's fairly, low in amplitude, so. It doesn't do frequently. Very much damage the. Following S wave is where most of the damage occurs and there's a seismogram. In green in the lower right-hand part, of this slide. And you can see the rival of the P wave that happens first time is going from left to right so the P wave arrives and then some time passes and then the S wave arrives. Later, and you see the S wave is much bigger the. Peak ground acceleration, PGA. The, heaviest, shaking, may follow. Behind. The S wave or it may be at, the same time as the S wave it depends on the characteristics, of the earthquake. So. That s minus P interval, varies. According. To your distance away from the earthquake closer. You are the smaller. That interval. Will be when. We measure, how, much, time you, have before, the, strong shaking, arrives, we're talking about the arrival of the S wave and it. May be that you have a little bit more time. If the strongest shaking actually, lags a bit. The. Block diagram, of the mountain, is to. Show you that, an earthquake does. Not happen at the surface an. Earthquake happens at depth it starts, at depth and so the epicenter, is the place.
On The ground above where it started but the hypocenter, is the. Place at depth where the fracture. Actually, starts, and then starts, to rip the fault like a zipper from, that point, either. Upward sideways, or or both of those and then those waves radiate out like, the ripples in, a pond when you throw a rock in. We. Also have to consider the fact that there are different kinds of earthquakes in. Different. Tectonic, situations. So. If you look at the picture on the right there. Are three red, boxes, those are the three primary types of earthquakes that we have to detect there. Are shallow crustal, earthquakes like, the diagram we showed in the last slide. But. In addition to those if you are in a subduction. Zone environment. Like the Cascadia subduction zone in the Pacific Northwest you. Can also have subduction, zone earthquakes, at the interface between the. North American continent and an oceanic plate that's being shoved down underneath, the continent, so, slip on that interface, between those two tectonic plates can cause the largest earthquakes, that we know of and, in. Addition to that the, oceanic, plate that's being shoved back down into the Earth's thinnest. Fear will. Twist and Bend and crack and cause, very large earthquakes, as well the. Two big earthquakes, that just happened in Mexico, were. Of that last type those. Deep, slab earthquakes, and if, anybody remembers the Nisqually Earthquake, in Seattle. That was also a deep slab earthquake. Another. Thing that you need to understand, about earthquakes, is they don't happen at a point epicenter, hypocenter, those are just where the earthquake starts. But. Large earthquakes, rupture, long faults, the. Bigger the earthquake is the longer the rupture, is this. Diagram. Is a. Animation. Running twelve times real time of a, hypothetical rupture. On the southern San Andreas Fault generating. A magnitude 7.8. Earthquake. So. Big earthquakes are not points, the magnitude, of the earthquake is proportional, to the fault rupture that fault rupture takes time, which. Means that when an earthquake happens. It, the, bigger it is the longer it takes to happen, and so. It's a challenge to. Estimate. Its magnitude, it's. Not done until it's done you. Don't know what the magnitude is until, it has fully developed, and basically, stopped so. You can't predict, what the rapture length is going to be so. The system must map. The, rupture, in real time as it occurs and continue to update the, estimate of magnitude, and therefore the estimate of effects, as the earthquake, continues. To. Evolve. And in, this particular scenario that. Earthquake takes a minute and a half to. Happen. You. Also have to consider that. It's not the distance to the epicenter that. Will get you it's the, distance to where the fault is rupturing, so in this case if you were worried about LA and I know this is Northern California, you're not worried about LA in fact we're, hoping. For this earthquake to happen. But. In, this scenario. The. If you try to estimate the impacts by measuring. The distance to the epicenter you're going to weigh underestimate. The impacts, because that rupture is headed toward LA and you. Have to measure the distance to the fault. Now. The. Detection of, earthquakes. Is a very touchy, thing it's difficult, to do and there's a trade-off between speed, and accuracy. How. Much data are you going to wait around for it to get a better answer well it's early warning, we need to get answers out quickly so we need to use the minimum amount of information to.
Make, Those alerts as fast as possible, and this, illustrates some of the challenges, of doing that these are ground motion, records coming from real seismograms, in the field the one in the center top is, just background noise, there's no earthquake in there the, earth, is noisy, there's. Traffic there's. Water flowing, there's wind blowing through the trees there's, the waves, beating, on the coastline, there's all sorts of sources of noise that could fool, algorithms. That is scientific. Ideas of how. To detect. Earthquakes they, can fool them into thinking, there's an earthquake when there really isn't one that's one of the hardest parts and why so much science, goes into, the detection of these events also. The instruments, themselves do, weird things over, on the right hand side you see calibration. Pulse that's, an instrument, going, through a regular, test and slamming. Its weight against, the stops causing. A seismogram. That look at. First blush like a huge earthquake and so. We have to control for that and. The. Diagram, in the center bottom is a tell us isin tela sizing is as large, distant. Earthquake, so, for, example there was just a magnitude seven point nine in, Alaska, well, those waves swept, across our network from north to south and, our. System, has. Troubled, district, discriminating, between Telus aizen's and local earthquakes, but, good news is just, today, we. Propagated. Forward software, that, has a new filter in it that does an excellent, job of discriminating. Between tellus aizen's and local earthquakes and was really going to reduce that problem significantly. Okay. So now it's your turn to be an earthquake early warning system. Here's. The beginning of an earthquake in seismograms. At the bottom of the screen. That's. What you get we. Trigger on the first four stations in order to make sure it's fast so. That's the information you get to decide is this noise or. Is this an earthquake and if it's an earthquake where is it and how. Big is it so. Now, is your time take, your guessed earthquake. Their noise. Earthquake. This. Is the South Napa earthquake. You. Can see the P waves. Kind. Of going, at a slant up, and to the right as you go upward then you can see the S wave following behind and the, fact that these, are ordered by distance. Away from the event and so you can see that the earthquake. P-wave. And s-wave is getting farther and farther apart as you get farther and farther away, as. Its called a record section. Well. So how do we make sure this stuff works and we, don't get fooled by all this noise and to tell us aizen's well we have a testing and certification platform. It's. A library. Of, historic, earthquakes, and historic, noise, so. We've got more than 40 earthquakes, in this library and we, replay, them every time we want to test a change. To the algorithms, and we will not make a change to, any part of the system unless, that change runs, through this gauntlet of 40. Real earthquakes, and 70, noise, events. Including, Telus items and that. We always test say okay is this change better or worse and if. It's worse of course we don't make the change. Our. Ability to test though is limited because we do not have records, of the biggest earthquakes that we're trying to protect against, we, don't have an example of a real magnitude. Seven and a half in, the bay we, don't have a real 9 off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. To use in our test suite, so. That is one of the other limitations. Of our ability to test how the system, will perform in, the biggest earthquakes. Well. Once we figure out that there's an earthquake where it is and how big it is we have to then predict. The, impacts. How, hard is it going to shake and where, and to do, this we use ground motion prediction, equations. But. Ground motion prediction equations, are approximations.
There. Are factors. That change, how, hard you're going to shake, local. Site geology, the path of the waves moving through the crust to get to you the characteristics of the earthquake itself and whether it's breaking towards you or away from you or you're off to the side so, there are a number of things that go into. Variations. In how. You are, going to shape for, a particular earthquake. This. Diagram. Shows the. Reports. Of what people, say they felt in the. South Napa earthquake the. Distance, is along the bottom and the. Intensity. Is the. Scale going up the. Vertical the intensity. Here is modified, Mercalli, intensity. Mm it's, a number that we use for. Characterizing. How hard the shaking feels it's not magnitude, it's a different kind of number and to try to make sure people understand, that we use Roman numerals to describe. MMI. Intensity. Intensity. To is about, the point where you start to feel it and you start. To get damage at about five, or, so in intensity. But that, brace there, in red shows, you the range of intensities, that were, reported by people thirty kilometers, away from the South Napa earthquake. And some people reported it as a - and some. People reported it as a six and so, there's a lot of variability. In, the. Stray, cat shaking, by distance, and so that's another limitation, of, what. We can say about what you're about to experience the. Diagram. On the left is the, kind of information that would come out of the early warning system those eight. Sided, polygons. Are the. Various intensity, levels the outermost polygon, is, mmmi. - the. Next one is MMI three and so, forth and so we can do a prediction of the expected, ground shaking but as this. Slide illustrates that, is going to be an approximation. The. System is going to produce two basic products, one for people and one for things, the. Alert to people right, now is going, to be. Released with the earthquake is in our reporting, area the. Three, states of the West Coast or maybe, it'll be restricted, to the. Metropolitan. Areas because that's where we can do the best job. Excuse. Me so. If it's in the region if, the magnitude is greater than four-and-a-half then. We will report. The polygon, of, MMI. - that, is the polygon. In which, people, should feel the, earthquake and. That, would be the basis for the alert area anybody within that zone, would, receive, an alert and. The. The. Little moving thing there shows the. Evolution. Of. Hypothetical. Event and how those MMI estimates, would change over time as the, fault ruptures. Further and the magnitude, grows. The. Other product, is for institutional, users those who are more sophisticated are. Going to do their own calculation. Their own estimate, and their own decision, about what, actions, to take whether. To stop a train whether, to stop, a factory, process. So. That will have a lower release, threshold. Probably, magnitude. Three and a half and we'll send them more information, we'll send them the location, of the earthquake, either, is a, line or, a point, will, send the magnitude, and will send the whole suite of MMI, contours. And, we can also send them a map of a. Grid, describing. The expected, impacts, as well. Well. A little bit more about the earthquake physics, this. One is a little bit difficult. To grasp but I'll do my best to explain it to you the. Bottom line here is that the warning, time that you're going to get. Depends. On the threshold, that you, set for being notified. So. Let's. Imagine that you had a factory. And, you. Want, to protect your factory, from, shaking and you know. That, your factory, will be damaged, at an, intensity, level of 5, okay. So. You got that scenario I've got a factory, I'm worried, about, intensity. Five because I think that'll damage my factory, but, I also need 10. Seconds, to shut it down, so. You've got a decision to make about the. Right balance of, time and threshold. For triggering now. If you say I'm going to be really conservative and I. Want to shut down make sure I have time to shut down I'm going to set my threshold.
Fairly. Low at MMI, too so. In, this picture you, can see that this is the first alert from, this earthquake and, it. Comes out 5.2. Seconds, after the earthquake begin and, it. Reports that their earthquake has reached a magnitude, of 5 and a half now in this hypothetical. The, red star. Is us we're, about 120. Kilometers away or so. Do. We shut down our factory well. I said we wanted to be conservative why, would we do that because the damage, sustained, is going to be worse much, worse than. The. Cost. Of shutting down that's, a cost benefit, that every. Sophisticated. User is going to have to make for themselves. What's. The outcome of choosing a low. Threshold middle. Bullet low threshold means. You get more alert time but. You'll also get more false alerts if this. Earthquake stops, here and is. Only a five and a half you. Will shutdown and, you will not experience the damaging shaking and that's. A trade-off that you're gonna have to think about and make if you set the threshold, higher, you. Will have fewer false alerts but, you'll also have less time let's look at some examples, what if I set my threshold, instead, of at MMI, - what, if I set it at 3-hour wait, till it's a little bit heavier, shaking, estimated. To reach my location. Well. Then I get 22 seconds, less your backup in the first one I get 25 seconds, of warning this, one I've used three seconds, and the. Earthquake has grown and the. Expected shaking, at my location, has, gone up. What. If I picked MMI, four as, my. Trigger. Threshold. Well, now I've only got 7 seconds, or 17 seconds, to react, but. Remember, I said I'd get damaged at 5 so what if I just wait until, the earthquake grows, and the estimate, of the impact at my location goes, all the way up to 5 the thing I'm really worried about in. That case. You. Really wants to talk to me in. That case. We've. Lost our early. Warning, because. It took too long for the earthquake to grow to. A point where we're certain, that the shaking is going to be heavy at our location, so, every, sophisticated.
Or Technical. User is going to have to make that kind of cost-benefit. Decision. Well. What about the people. What. Are they going to get everybody, since. We're playing, with cell phones here, everybody. Expects, to get the alert on their cell phone, and. We. Have done the work to, define. What a cell phone alert will look like it, will have a distinctive, sound. But. That sound is to be determined, we had hoped to use the same sound they use in Japan and we. Asked. The Japanese if we could use that and they said, no. They. Wanted to reserve that sound just for their system, we, thought it would be great to internationalize. That they want to keep it a Japanese, sound okay. So we're back to the drawing board but. Luckily our. Partners, in the California, Office of Emergency Services. Are going. To work on that problem they're, going to go with sound engineers, and social scientists, to develop, a sound that, will be. Distinctive, for earthquake early warning and will. Meet, all sorts of different criteria for, not. Being so annoying, that people shut it off or. Not. Being so melodic, that it just sounds like another ringtone, so. The. Important part though isn't, that distinctive, sound it's going to be the basis for training, people what. We would really like is a Pavlovian. Response to, that sound that you. Just jump into your desk without thinking about it. And, then, we don't. Want people to have to pull out their phone wake. It up read, a message by, then they've, consumed a lot of the warning time and so. It, will use. A voice to. Say earthquake earthquake. Expect. Shaking soon drop cover hold on protect, yourself now, so. The social science tells us that don't. Want to give you any fancy information, oh there's an earthquake 60. Miles away that's going to give you MMI 7 yeah. That. Is not what, you need you need clear, instructions, what. To do you, can worry about the details later so. This is what an earthquake early warning would look, like and not. Only would this be what your phone did but it would be what would appear on a television or, a radio. Broadcast, or on a sign. Driving. Down the freeway whatever, the modality. Of the alert is we want it to be consistent, so that people recognize, it immediately. Well. There's a problem with this I've described, what a phone would respond, like but, bad news is it. Can't be done today. The. Best, way to send alerts through cell phones is, using, iPods, the integrated. Public alert, and warning system, that is. The, government. System used, for, emergency. Alerts for weather for, terrorist, attacks for, Amber Alerts, so, you're probably familiar with that you probably receive, them on your cell phone, the. Piece of it that actually sends, it to your cell phone is a different, system that's inside the cell carriers. Systems. And, it's called weeow wireless, emergency alert.
So, I pause, gets, it and then passes, it off to weeow and we is operated, by Verizon. AT&T. T-mobile. And, Sprint. So. Whichever carrier, you have we forgot one of the off-brand, ones it still works. That. System was designed for. The. Things that I just described like Amber Alerts and whether it. Was not designed for speed. Earthquake. Early warning needs, to be really, fast and. Weeow. Is not fast enough for, earthquake, alerts so, we're working with the cell carriers to, remedy, that, situation but. That solution. Is a, ways away. Let's. Take a look at some of the limitations. Of using a cell phone for receiving alerts. 10%. Of adults don't have, a cell phone so obviously. We can't reach everybody there. Are areas where cell phone coverage is not available, so those people would, be left out. Well. What about sending text messages I get text messages all the time, too. Slow, doesn't. Work. Well. What about an app I got, the, Twitter app I've got the Facebook app this thing's tweeting at me all the time, telling me stuff that I didn't even ask for sometimes, so. Why not that, again. Not fast enough, those. Technologies, if. We tried to notify a, million, people. Would. Take a long. Time in fact we don't even know exactly, how long we. Can't get that information I, think it may not just be available and, I'll talk about that a little bit more in a sec. And. Then the real system that I just described is cell broadcast, but, again it is not currently, fast enough but we are actively, working on, making. It faster. We're working with both I SEMA, directly. And with, the organization, that makes standards, for the cell carriers, so. We're hopeful that it can be fast enough someday. But it is not fast enough now. So. Here's a kind, of a complex busy, grid, showing, the possible, alert, technologies. For mass alerting, and. I. Didn't, mention the internet get. A lot of information over the Internet the internet is very fragile, and strong, shaking it's not likely to survive. And. So it may not be the best way to try to send emergency alerts I've already described I pause and the huius system the fact that it's too, slow but we're trying to speed, it up. In. Addition, to weeow I paws will also distribute through EAS, the, emergency, alert system to television, and radio that's, even slower than. We are so, there'll be heavy lift to make that work. That. Organization. Of cell carriers that I talked about we, are working, on implementing, a different. Technology in the cell systems, called et WS the earthquake and tsunami warning. System, that's. What they use in Japan, to. Get it operational. In the United States they estimate will take three to seven years. So. That'll. Be that'll happen but as you can see it's, a ways away, sorry. I talked about push notifications, already. But. There is another one coming. That's. Very promising and that, is using, broadcast. Radio. Television. Broadcasts. Are all over the place and it. Turns out that you can put data into. Those broadcast, streams and, so. The, Cal OES the, California Office of Emergency Services is. Prototyping. Putting. The, shake alert, alerts. In, the broadcast, of public. Television. Stations. Now. You will not get the alert if you're watching the station it's, digital, data in the signal and so, the. Part that we're missing is a receiver, you need a radio. To. Receive that digital. Data and turn it into an alert that's by the way what happens in your car radio when it says what the. Weather. Radio. Station, you're listening to is or what the song name is that's digital, data inside, the radio, stream. But. That too is going to take a little bit of time to. Completely. Develop, and you'll need a purpose-built, receiver. So. Back, to the 2018 limited, public rollout, what can we expect on the project side the alert generation, side the, part that USGS has direct control over who. Install additional stations will continue to improve the software of the system to make it more reliable, will, build those public facing secure, servers. We'll keep doing research and development, to speed it up and we'll, also develop, a plan for CEO. Communication. Education, and outreach so, that people will understand. The system and know what to do when they hear an alert on. The. Public alerting side. Always. Remember that we're limited. We'll, do some experimental apps, in. Order to actually measure how much. An, app. Will help at, what point does an app saturate, we know that in the case of Japan they, have an app that. Has they, claim 5 million users but, they do not guarantee you will receive the alert in a timely fashion if you want that you have to pay extra. Ok.
And That limits the number of users so that you can probably deliver. To maybe a few tens of thousands, of people fast through an app but, beyond that it probably slows. Down to the point where it is not useful. We'll. Continue with. Our work with, FEMA, and the cell carriers, to speed up I pause and weeow but, again that's probably a few years out and I've just described the data casting model for, getting, that out with, the limitation, that you. Would need to buy a purpose-built, device. In. Addition to these we are doing some live pilots. Now. This is a big. List I'm not going to run down through, the entire list but. We are working with a number of organizations. Who are doing real-life. Implementations. Now not all of these implementations. Are guaranteed, to, be. Completed, in 2018, but. They will ultimately. Be completed, and they're doing very interesting things like notifying. Children. In schools, through. A prototype. In the LA School District. And. Closing. Water valves, in, in. The Pacific Northwest we're, working with companies out there doing that and so there are a number of these. Pilot. Projects, that will come to market in 2018, and there's probably, in later years that will lead the way in showing how the technology, can be used and how to do those kinds of implementations. And in fact we expect to be creating. A brand, new earthquake early warning industry. That. Doesn't currently exist in fact. One of these companies earthquake. Or the. Our early warning labs, is. A start-up. Specifically. For using, shakealert data and making. Products, to protect its clients. And. We hope that there will be many other companies doing that sort of thing, we. Do have to do some education. And outreach we've. Got a mechanism for doing that we have a multi-state. Committee that, is working on the public education, part, what. Materials, to use. And how to message, this for greatest effective, use, and. It actually also includes British Columbia we're talking to the Canadians to, coordinate, our efforts because, they're interested, in developing earthquake early warning as well.
So. Last slide. Summary. Fulltime. Alerting, is limited. Our, full-scale, wording, is limited by several factors as I've been describing funding. To complete the system and operate, it is not yet in hand, sensor. Network is incomplete mass, notification, technologies. That exist today are too slow and people. Need to be educated, but. Despite, all these limitations, shakealert, will begin limited public operations. In 2018. Using. Those paths, that, work that are fast enough and through the pilots that I've described, I. Think. That's it. All. Right we're going to do. A. Opportunity. For questions, but we do ask that you either. Use the mic on the stand or it's. Over there on that phone. Or. Jen Straus UC, Berkeley one of our partners will. Come, to you with a mic if you raise your hand and I would like to thank and some of the pilots who are in the audience tonight, and for example PG&E. Is. In representation. Here so they're helping to keep your area, safe. In the, case of earthquakes, so. First question. In. The case of Japan can. You give, us as an example on the Fukushima, earthquake what was in place and not worked. The. Japanese. System has been operational, for, the public since 2007. In. The Tohoku earthquake that. Damaged, the Fukushima reactor. The. System, worked it, was an offshore, event. It's. Not sure, I'll remember all these but I believe it triggered. Eight, seconds, after the waves first hit land where they had sensors, an alert, was issued and. Thousands. Of people were warned, that's the good news the, bad news is that the Japanese system. Only. Reports. An epicenter. And does. Not account for the length of the fault that. I described, and so. That fault ruptured southward, in a magnitude, 9, and. So they actually under, alerted they should have alerted that, hope the, Tokyo area because. The rupture was moving in that direction but, they did not do so so, it was mostly, a success, but it had some limitations. Yes. The. In fact Japanese. Work. On early warning was, first. Motivated, by the opening, of the bullet train the Shinkansen. That happened in 1990. No. 1964. When, the Shinkansen, opened, and so. The Shinkansen. Has always had earthquake early warning built, into it it's gone through several iterations. But. The. Public warning system followed. Much later in part. Motivated. By. The very devastating, Kobe earthquake that, killed 6,400, people, we. Have this question that from a. Mass. Notification. Why. Don't we think about putting loud. Sirens, sirens, on cell. Phone poles, in populated, areas, we're enough of them around you wouldn't have to worry about opening your cell phone or listening to the radio TV. The. Warning, signal that's. Correct, then, that's what they do in Mexico City, they, have a network, of over 10,000, sirens. In Mexico City but that siren, system was not primarily built for earthquake early warning it was built for crime, and other, security. Measures so. Earthquake, early warning is just part of that it's very expensive to do so, and. We. Are exploring the use of sirens. The. City of San Francisco has, more than a hundred sirens, they're. Too slow. Two. Things one, I've, seen a lot of very compact. Seismic. Stations, what's. The problem with the environmental, impact statement said. They do not seem like their facilities, that should really get bogged down in, in. A lot of problems. With impact statements, well. I definitely, can. I answer the first one then you can sure we. Are told when we when we tried to push back against those requirements, as well that, if you put a hole in the ground the size of a pencil you need this kind of impact report, no, I mean that.
In. Impact, statements, there are often. Very long, processes. Of comment, and things like that and this, does not seem to be a the. Sort of projects, that would trigger those delays, and lawsuits and, all the other stuff that tangles, up impact statements, say they would look like they'd be pretty pro forma well. I agree with you and, we're trying to get to that point now the impact studies. We need to do are not the same as you would do for a housing development, or concern or a dam but, they're still, onerous. And can cost us thousands, of dollars and months of work. The. Second is how, have Japan and chile managed. To confront. Some of these problems, like, the, speed. Of dissemination, I mean they're working with much the same cellphone technology and. Broadband. Carriers, and all the rest how is it that that, they. Have. Skin. This cat, well. I don't think I would put chilli on the list of active, earthquake, early warning systems, there are many countries that do Mexico, China, now has one, and. As. You mentioned Jeff Japan, Korea's. Building. One, there. Are persons of India where they're being built Italy. Romania, Turkey. Are, all building or, have built systems, in. Some cases they're not public, the, only country. That I'm aware of that has effective, alerting, through cell phones is Japan, and they. Implemented. That et. WS earthquake and tsunami warning system the system that we're trying to bring, our system, up to that spec but again it would take three to seven years to do so. They're. Using different cell, phone, technology. Or, or yes. What hurdle have they surmounted, that that you have not surmounted, well. It's just a different way of designing. A cell phone system, and the behavior, of all, the physical components, and the protocols, that are used for sending alert messages, I could, go. Into excruciating. Detail about how that works but it even bores me so. Okay. Another question from the back then we'll take one at the front. Okay. Thanks for a great presentation. The, question I have is it seems that your data is well-suited. For machine, learning or deep learning have. You guys I'm, sure you started, you had your requirements, before it was very popular and we had the computing, power for it but, have you been looking. Into that there. Have been various papers and seismological journals. About that and there, is some current, activity. In fact there is a like, I don't know if he's a postdoc, or grad student at Caltech who's. Going, to take a look at whether that will help us or not yes. The having the speed is, probably that one of the critical things. And how long do, the Amber Alerts take to get out just so we have a new ballpark. Well. That's part of the frustration is, we're not really sure that the we being me, I mean I've been on phone calls with the cell carriers, for, a year and a half and, I've been asking repeatedly, how. Long does this stuff take and either. They don't want to say or they don't know. And so. That's that's a bit of a challenge and it's trying to get it past that problem, we. Are doing, a test, by. Developing, an app. In. The, I'm sorry that's, that's the app thing we're trying to figure out how fast an app can go but in addition to try and figure out how fast weeow can go we're. Talking, with, I paws about, doing a through-and-through test, an experiment. That would, include, citizen.
Scientists, With, their phones that. Would measure when the alert arrived so, that we can directly measure the speed of the system now we expect that it will vary by carrier vary, by region. But. If. I had to guess what the outcome of that was going to be I would say it would be from tens of seconds to minutes, which, would be too long okay thank you and you may have been in a situation, where you were in a room when an Amber Alert was, broadcast. A lot of phones go off but sometimes phones. Go off a minute later or. Two minutes later. Yes. Hi hi thank, you for your lecture I just wanted some clarification about, the S wave and the P waves now. Looks up there, that there created, some distance, from the epicenter, the S is created, first and then the P wave after. Okay. Both both waves are generated. Simultaneously. At the, rupture of the fault this, picture, is a few seconds, afterwards, when, those waves have had some time to start to move outward, from the. Earthquake. Rupture, and, so, this is meant to illustrate that the P wave is now getting out ahead of the, S wave. You. Know I don't, know what the scale of this diagram is so, I can't put numbers on it really but, those, two waves are generated. Simultaneously. Same, place at the same time yeah sometimes the analogy, I use is imagine, a race between a Porsche, and a Volkswagen, bug. At, the starting line they're, dead even. If. They go a block later the Porsche is out ahead of the bug, after, two blocks is farther out ahead at the three blocks that's farther out ahead and so the gap between the two the faster and the shorter and the slower grows. As time. Passes. But. The bug is gonna come maybe I should make it a truck. Or something like that. So. Maybe. You can esse you mentioned PG news here so I was talking and somebody told me that PG, knee actually has one of the largest Wi-Fi. Systems, in existence. And that is is through the network of smart meters and, that, there was negotiation, person I was talking to is about trying. To get emergency services, access to that network is that something that is part, of this do you know anything about it I have, heard something about that but I don't know if I can. Want. To put somebody on the spot or not do you. Want, to be on the spots do. Closer. There. We go so, we do have a network of smart meters most of them have, seen them in your homes outside, of their homes and we're constantly working, on developing, those smart meters making. Even smarter, there's, gonna be a new generation where we're putting. Accelerometers. In the meters so they'll act like miniature. Seismic, stations, in everybody's, house will get even denser. Recordings. A strong ground motion, and we'll have a better idea of the variation, in, ground motion, in. Communities. Around the Bay Area so that's to. Achieve, this vision. That we had many years ago what we call micro zonation, we, can really see how ground motion varies. In the area, and. We are an active partner, with the USGS, in, shakealert. An earthquake early warning and we're you know interested, right now in different ways to implement so we are one of the guinea-pigs, and right, now our primary, focus. Is going to be on life safety in. Terms of getting that message out to our, employees. First. Job is to survive the earthquake, so. We can get out and start to do the restoration, or. Follow, your. Investing. Any different, ways to push that message out and train. People to, know what to do is Doug was say so, it's almost a Pavlovian, response, we. Hear the alarm. Is. That system currently a two-way, communication, system is at one way only it's, one way. So. Recently, people, in Hawaii were, falsely, alerted, that a nuclear, missile was about to head out, so. How, would you prevent that and how would you prevent hackers from messing with your system okay.
So The two parts for that question the, first is the the, error was. Human error, somebody. Poked. The wrong button on the, human console. To generate that alert our system, is fully. Automated well. That. Doesn't mean it's going to be perfect no system is so. There can, be false alerts for many of the reasons that I've already described, so don't expect the system to be perfect. So. We'll. Do the best we can to reduce false. Alerts to, keep them to a minimum but. We can't guarantee that the system will not generate. False alerts that then pass through and through to end users through, the weeow system, so. Every. Technology. Has a dark, side and, a positive. Side. Your. Second the, second piece of your question was about hackers. Hackers. Yes so. We, have instituted, a lot, of cyber, security controls, on, our system, and, in fact we're going through a very, excruciating. Process right now to satisfy, the. Federal government, requirements, for cyber security, there, was a red box around that alert layer in the slide that I showed you that red box represents. That secure, environment. And. You. Know messages, are encrypted there they're. Secured. And. We're doing everything. We can to ensure that the, system can't, be hacked. The. If. You all want to go out to, an individual, sensor and start, jumping up and down simultaneously. We. Might get fooled I don't know you, might want to give that a shot. Okay. This. Occurred. To me as I was sitting over there. In. Terms, of training for. Using. Whatever the system turns out to be I have. Been, just coincidentally. In the last couple weeks I've been in half a dozen different meetings, where the first thing you do when you go in the door is cell, phone off. And. I'm, just wondering, if that somewhere. In the training, process is, where that. Potential. Weakness. In the whole system might. Be covered yeah, yeah. That's an interesting observation. I. Can. Think. Of a few possibilities, one is that if buildings. Are. Wired. Into the system and through PA systems, that, would be a second, way to deliver, the alert and by the way in in, psychology. People. Really do want to verify that an, alert is true before they take an action, you've, probably been in a room, where a girl are has gone off and what, do people do, generally. Nothing they. Look around they, is, there any smoke or other people leaving I'm. Not going to be the first one to go that's. A real barrier to effective. Response. To alerts. And so. You. Know if there's a building, alert, the. Goes off and your cell phone goes, off that would be a verification that might cause people to to. React, positively. As far. As the issue of shutting. Off your cell, the, battery dies. There, are many things that really, can't be. Remedied. In, that kind of situation. People. Will, probably be unable to opt out. There's. Actually some discussion, about that, and. The. Behavior of the phone is part of what's being negotiated it, could be that even if you turn your ringer off for example a. Severe. Alert might still activate. Your phone there's, always that balance between, privacy. Annoyance. And getting. The alert to folks and so, you, know that's actually going to a discussion that will happen in the FCC, the Federal Communications. Commission about the behavior, or cell phones related, to alerts as. The daughter of an emergency, manager I always leave for the fire alarm I don't know about the rest of y'all but I always leave I. Think. Did. We have one more question my. Question. Many. Years ago I, managed. An exploratory, research program. At the Electric. Power Research Institute. And. On behalf of our nuclear power people who worried about stuff like this we. Gave a little bit of money to a team that was. Berkeley. And I think Stanford only Berkeley. And somebody and. They, thought they had a glimmer. Of an idea, for earthquake, prediction, did, that ever go anyplace there. Have been lots of people with glimmers of ideas about earthquake prediction, and, to my knowledge none of them have fanned out so. I think. I'll leave it at that I'm I'm, in the skeptics, camp, I don't. Think earthquake. Prediction. Will ever be actionable. You. Mentioned a Mexico. System. And then, it's silent, based are they using any other message. Delivery, and. Didn't. And are you coordinating with the Mexican, program, at all, yes. We talked to the Mexicans, frequently. We. Sent a team down, to, evaluate. How. The system, performed. And how people responded, after the, last, couple. Of quakes that they had. Their. System is different. In many ways from, ours in some ways their problem, is easier. Their. System was originally built they went live in 1980. No, 1992. As. A response, to the 1985. Mexico. City earthquake, and. Their. System originally was, the earthquakes, we know are going to happen off the coast and, our population, is in Mexico City so, if we put sensors, along the coast we can protect Mexico, City that was a very simple, and effective use.
Of Earthquake, early warning, since. Then they have spread southward, into LA, Hakka and have, a more general system, but our problem, is quite different from that our, problem, is our earthquakes, can happen anywhere and our people are everywhere and so. We have to build a system that's capable of. Solving. That problem and so for, that reason it's, it's different in many ways from the Mexican system. Okay. One last question. This. Is, it. Has to do with funding. I. Thought. What the shakealert, wasn't giving any funding, but then there was some California. Congressman, that were supporting, it what. What's, going on with with. Kevin McCarthy's, in California. He's. A, great. Trump Bunny is there are we what's what's, the status of support, well. I'm not sure I want to get into politics, no you didn't have to I founded that but. I. Was, looking for my slide that shows the, funding. Picture. And. I'm not sure I can find. It in this particular representation. I think that's it go. Okay. So. There, it is, and. It's not that we don't have any funding but it's it's less, than we need you, can see that it's it started out quite modest, in 2013. It's grown but. We've now plateaued, at 10.5%. Estimated. And we know that number is now bigger plus. Just to operate, it every year our original. Estimate was 16 and we know that numbe