Professor Rory Truex: "Xi for life? What does it mean for China and the World?" | Talks at Google

Professor Rory Truex:

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I studied. Chinese politics, and I teach courses on Chinese politics so I am, grateful for this opportunity today, to get to speak to you about, events. Unfolding. In China this past year so often when we talk about China we. Talk about it through the lens of China u.s. the, trade war these sorts of things but, actually in, China and mainly on China and domestic politics, this has been a seminal. Year in, part because of this man Xi Jinping and so today I wanted to really just focus on giving you a briefing. I thought that would be the most helpful thing to give, you a sense of what's, unfolding, this past year and what we can think about will happen moving forward. So. I wanted to start as I mentioned I teach courses on Chinese politics so I wanted to start with an exam question. Which. I can see there was a little in little enthusiasm, for that but. Here. We go bear with me. So. This past fall, I taught a course on Chinese politics and for the final exam I asked the students to identify a year. A critical. Year in the development, of China in. Particular China's, political development, so we have this concept in political science something. Called a critical juncture which is a kind, of a jargony, way of saying and that is a turning point a year where certain. Events unfolded, certain decisions, were made that. Changed the trajectory of history, and, so if we look back at the last 70. Years of the, rule of the Chinese Communist, Party certain years come. Quickly to mind which I'm sure many of you are familiar with the first is of course 1949. 1949. Is the establishment, of the, People's Republic of, China this is a picture of Mao, Zedong standing, in Tiananmen Square. Declaring. The establishment. Of the People's Republic and, for. The first time in decades the. Territory. Of mainland China is, consolidated. Under the rule of a single government so this was a heady time for China and signaling the beginning of mouse mouse, rule, another. Year which is of course very important, is 1917. 1978. The beginning, of so-called reform, and opening-up if. Your does, anybody here speak Chinese or study Chinese some. So. I remember when, I started taking Chinese I took Chinese 101, in one of the first words we learn is guy Guk -, which. Means reform, and opening-up and it's I swear. 50%, of our lessons were about reform and opening-up so it's a it's an important year and this, for. Those of you who are less familiar with this signal is the beginning of China's economic miracle. So, dong Xiao ping comes into power and takes a much more pragmatic stance, with respect to economic policymaking. Basically. Undoes the the command part of the Chinese economy and. Results. In an influx of trade and foreign direct investment, in the so-called, 30. Years of 10%, economic, growth this is the beginning of this era this is him visiting the US and. He's wearing a cowboy hat this is one of the famous images, of reform and opening-up. Another. Year is, of course 1989. 1989, is the year of the Tiananmen Square movement, and the tienamin square massacre, and.

This Is the year where we learned that the Communist Party was. Willing to do whatever it took to stay in power and was not amenable to the idea of political reform and, this is the year where we saw them willing, to use live ammunition on, student, protesters. And, finally, what I'm gonna argue today and what, I argue I am. Starting. To come up with this argument it's not fully developed but I what I argue, is that potentially, 2017. And 2018. Have, the capacity, to be one of those years so. It's difficult to know we haven't seen history unfold quite yet we haven't seen the trajectory, moving forward but. There have been a number of developments in the last 12 months that signaled this might be a turning point for contemporary, China in particular, this is the year where Xi Jinping the current general secretary, of the Chinese Communist Party has fully, consolidated his power, signaled. The start of a new era under his, rule that could last well beyond. His expected, time and power so. Today I wanted to give you a briefing as to what happened this. Past year why I think this might be a critical year and then, some trends think about moving forward some things that might be be worth paying attention to. So. Before I get into what happened this year I want to kind of set the stage to, talk a little bit about how we used, to talk about China and when I say how we I mean mostly the political scientists, community, and when. I say used to I mean not that long ago I mean only a few years ago. We used to describe the Chinese Communist, Party through the lens of almost. An exceptionalism. So, most authoritarian, regimes and the Chinese Communist Party is an authoritarian, regime they. Don't last very long they, live sort of short brutish, violent, existences, and they. Fall from a number of different threats the the two most pressing for threats facing, any authoritarian, leader are the threat from within the threat of a coup attempt, actually. There's some data on this from Ilan cephalic who's a political scientist at Yale and he actually shows that most authoritarian, regimes die in this way they. Die they crumble from within I think, it's roughly 60 to 70 percent of authoritarian, regimes fall to be a coup where, one leader comes in and basically Institute's, a new authoritarian regime and then. The second way they fall is through the threat of revolution. This is the more romantic version of how. Authoritarian, regimes collapse the population, comes together demands. Political, reform and either through some violent, struggle or some broke road broker transition, the authoritarian, regime Falls and is replaced with with something else hopefully democracy. So. This, is how these, are the two problems facing, any authoritarian, leader including, Xi Jinping who Jintao Zhang's men and all the way on back and, the way we used to describe the party, was. Wow this is a regime that seems. To have learned the lessons of history and figured out how, to mitigate some of these issues so. In particular the, key feature of the authoritarian, regime in China was institutionalization. So. One of the difficulties, for any authoritarian. Regime is is how to share power how to keep elites happy how, to transfer, power from one leader to another so. If we look back in the 2000s, there were a set, of institutions. Rules and norms that. The Communist Party had developed, that. Seemed to be solving. This dilemma of of threats from within so in particular, there was a norm that no, leader would stay in office longer. Than 10 years so leaders at the very top including Xi Jinping were expected to stay in office for, two five-year terms the.

Successor, Would. Be anointed in advance usually five years in advance potentially, earlier than that the. Smoothing, the power transition, allowing, that person to develop cachet. Within the system and experience. There. Would be well-established retirement, ages so people would be forced to leave office and wouldn't hang on to long power. Was exercised, not by just one person but collectively, where each leader at the top on say the top I generally, am referring to what's known as the Paul bro standing community the top tier. Of leadership, of the Chinese Communist, Party usually seven to nine liters each, leader would be given a portfolio. And while there would be one most senior, leader they. Would cooperate with each other they would play nice so. These were the key institutions. That, we, look back on under, Jung's a minute who Jintao the two predecessors, of Xi Jinping we. Say these these institutions, contributed, the resilience of the Communist Party so. That's the threat from within the threat from below revolution. You, know the Communist Party is always it's, an authoritarian regime it uses the language of democracy, and claims to be democratic. But. No self-respecting, political. Scientists, would call the Chinese Communist Party democratic, but. Nevertheless in, the 2000s. It looked like the party was starting to develop. Mechanisms. For citizens, to have, a voice, so. These weren't democratic, they were tightly controlled by the party but nevertheless there were channels through which citizens, could voice, their concerns this is everything from a petition, system village. Elections a People's. Congress system which is their legislative, system online, public. Opinion portals, mayor's mailboxes. It's, getting increasingly online. And digital but. There were channel is in place where citizens could funnel their grievances, and the party could, respond.

And. So some of the language we use to describe the party at this time was we. Used to call it responsive, authoritarianism, or consultative, authoritarianism, in general, this is sort of a a kind. Of a more tolerable, form of authoritarian. Regime this wasn't a tin-pot dictatorship, this was a regime that was sophisticated and, institutionalized. And seemed to be trying to mitigate these issues, so. That's how we used to describe it and this argument I should I should cite the the author's his name's Andrew Nathan this was made in 2003, if any of you want to do further reading I'm sure you have plenty of other things to do with your time but, the. Article is called authoritarian, resilience so. Enter Xi Jinping so. Xi Jinping is. The current. General. Secretary of the Communist Party so I I I'm, afraid I'm gonna have to get in a little bit of the weeds here in, terms of the Chinese leadership system but but bear with me so. Any top leader of China today, actually has three different positions so the first is that their general secretary, of the Chinese Communist, Party. That's. The head of the party that's the most important position they. Are also de. Facto president, of the People's Republic of, China which. Is the head of state the, government position the party and the government on paper are separate. Things, in. Reality, they're heavily intertwined and the party dominates the government and actually in my experience, many Chinese citizens have trouble differentiating, the. Party institutions. And the party positions in the government positions, but she didn't pings party position as general secretary his. Government position as the president he also has a military position he's chair of what's known as the Central Military Commission so, he's head of state head of party head of military so. He assumed these positions, in 2012, and, we. Are just finishing up his first term in office and therefore he's expected, to retire in 2020. To 2023. Now. Prior to coming to office I just want to emphasize a couple of things about Xi Jinping's rise, the. First is like many Chinese leaders you might hear of this so-called. China, model this, idea that China is a meritocratic system, and. People are promoted, based on their abilities, and talents and experience, and so forth, that. Is a highly controversial, argument, to make what. I would say is that Xi Jinping like many other Chinese leaders had, a lot of governing, experience, upon entering his. Highest position, so he rose up the ranks from a young age, was. Party secretary, and and mayor and governor of various different parts of China was, involved in the, central party school he, actually helped run the Beijing Olympics so by the time he came general secretary he was highly experienced, the. Second feature of his rise is that he is not what's known as a princeling, so. In the, Chinese politics of princeling is simply a leader whose. Father or grandfather and. I apologize. For using male male, nouns. Here but this is this is empirically. True almost all Chinese leaders are male a. Princeling. Is a Chinese leader whose father or grandfather was, also a leader and so she didn't Payne's father's name is Shi Junction who actually worked with mouths adult before. Being purged during the Cultural Revolution but, Xi Jinping because of this princeling, status an American, Princeton would be like Chelsea Clinton George W Bush that's that's, you can kind of draw the connection, because. Of this princeling, status he. Potentially. Had a more accelerated rise and he had a certain level of prestige within the system early on and.

Then The third thing I would talk about about, his rise is that like, many Chinese leaders prior to him coming to, power we actually didn't know a lot about him. So, one way to rise, up to the Chinese system seems to be to keep your head down, to. Develop relationships, with patrons, who are higher in office than you and not, take any dramatic policy. Stances in mine either direction so. Prior to coming into office we really didn't know a lot about what Xi Jinping was all about and if. You look back at some of the discourse about him into 2012, and 2013 a lot. Of people believed, he. Was China's Gorbachev, so this is a Democrat, in Waiting he's going to be the one who finally liberalized his China and embarks on political reform and. The. Basis for these claims was. In. Retrospect fairly, weak Xi Jinping spent. Time in Iowa this is him as a younger man he spent time in Iowa on an exchange program. So. He spent time in Iowa, his daughter attends Harvard University, therefore. He must get it he must be a liberal, as. It, turns out this conjecture, couldn't, have been further from the truth xi Jinping is a reformer, and I'll, talk more about that later but he is a reformer of the illiberal sort so, he's, moving China in a more authoritarian, direction, not a more democratic direction. So. What, happened in 2017-2018, why, is this years past, 12 months such a big deal well there were really three events, that unfolded. That. Really. Changed, what we thought we knew about Chinese, politics the first occurred. At what's known as the party congress the party congress occurred, last fall it's a meeting of the 2000. Most powerful, members of the Chinese Communist, Party it happens only once every five years and during. This event we, typically, see the unveiling of leadership, new leadership, circles. And. What we were expecting, to see based. On precedent was, that Xi Jinping there, would be a new group of top seven leaders Xi Jinping would still be in power right because he still has one five-year term left but, that there would be a successor, so. We would see two new leaders put, into the top tier of the Chinese Communist Party and it would be generally understood potentially, even announced, that, these people were going to take over from Xi Jinping there would be a new successor, in waiting so, first thing we learned this fall is that there. Actually when this new leaders, this is the event this this image, that I'm showing here that's actually four, out of the new seven members of the Politburo Standing Committee, there was no successor, announced. Okay. So. Remember I talked about institutions. This is a big, one having a successor, named in advance, that. One's gone, okay. And, why, is this a big deal well actually for basically, since the Tiananmen, Square massacre the Tiananmen Square incident there has been a successor, in place in the. Chinese political system, so it was known that Johnson min would, transfer power to who Jintao Xi. Jinping came to office as in, the pol bro Standing Committee in 2007. It was known that he would take over for who Jintao, so. Now for the first time we don't have a successor. Which. Means this, can generate instability. Right so if an authoritarian regime we don't know if something ever happened is Xi Jinping if he had a health problem or something like this there. Would be a major public, power struggle, so. That was the event number one event number two is a little, more end of the weeds but I thought we'd we. Could have some fun with it so. This. Is event number two and then I had to write it down because I have trouble remembering. All of the language. But. I encourage you all to memorize, this Xi. Jinping thought on socialism, with Chinese characteristics, for, the new era, this.

Is A mouthful, I am NOT a native speaker of Chinese, and my Chinese is probably suspect, but she's and pinkish in should I don't, go to such show Hydra says John that's in Chinese to me it also sounds like a mouthful in Chinese there are native Chinese speakers in the room I heard you before so, maybe. You can tell me if you agree but. Another. Feature of the Chinese political system, is that any elite, leader. Is. Expected. To make an ideological, contribution, to the Communist Party doctrine, so, every leader has their pet phrase Mao. Zedong has, Mao Zedong Thought, dung. Shout ping has dong Xiao ping Theory John's. Immense contribution. Is known as the three represents. John, zoom it should be said that it's not called John's and mins three represents, is just called the three represents. Scientific. Concept of development is who in town and. So now Xi Jinping's, contribution, is known as Xi Jinping thought on socialism, with Chinese characteristics, for the new era this. Phrase, was put into the Constitution, the Charter of the Communist Party itself, and it was done so while, she didn't ping was still in office still in power usually it happens after the fact so if, we dissect this phrase a few things stand, out first Xi, Jinping, his. Name is in it okay. So it's, a named phrase this honor had only been reserved for Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping so. Here we have Xi Jinping placing. Himself on par with those two leaders the. Second. Word I want you to pay attention to his thought souchong, so, remember, there was Mao Zedong Thought and. Dong. Xiao ping theory. So. There. Are some analysts who believe that a thought actually is higher than. A theory. Depends. You're now, we're getting into semantics, but it's, telling that mouths are dong how Mao Zedong thought, so, now we have Xi Jinping thought Mao Zedong thought so and not only is he putting himself on par with Mao and dung he may be only putting himself on par with Mao and above done, socialism. With Chinese characteristics, is an old sort of tired phrase in Communist, Party ideology it's, basically their way of justifying the fact that they've gone a market direction, while still using socialist, language so this is actually not a new phrase, but. The last thing I think is in some sense the most important, is a new era. So. Xi Jinping is declaring, that we are in a new era and he, is at the center and, up. Until this point we have generally thought that China was in the so-called reform, period so beginning in 1978. We have the reform and opening-up, that, was the period we were in xi, Jinping is saying we are in the end of that period we are in a new era and I, am at the center so. That was event number two event. Number three. Occurred. This past March where. We had an amendment to China's, Constitution that. Got rid of term limits for the. Position of the presidency, so prior to this the position of the presidency, which remember is Xi Jinping's government, position, was. Governed by two five-year, term limits and, this. Past spring. Which. Honestly, would have been unbelievable, five or ten years ago that term limit was gotten away with so. The interpretation, of all of these events so again, just to reiterate so, we have no successor, we have Xi Jinping thought in the Constitution, and now we have no term limits, the. Interpretation. Among. The China Studies community and the China watcher community is that this signal is that Xi Jinping is potentially, trying to stay on past, his expected, retirement, in 2022 the so-called XI for life and. I. Titled the talk not XI for life i titled, it xi for life with, a question, mark at the end because. I think it's important for us all to remember that what. We know about elite politics in China is is actually quite little it's an extremely opaque system and so, people, that observe the system were. Left to to, take these very crude signals, and try. To infer what's going on between the party leaders and what's going on in their heads and so I think it's a bit premature to say oh he'll be in there until he's he.

Until For the rest of his life although Donald, Trump actually congratulated. Him on being. It's. Just I went. 20 minutes without bringing out Donald Trump, so. My. Own interpretation so, one. Possibility he's, intending to stay on that's one possibility a second possibility is he. Is using these moves to further consolidate, power and create uncertainty so. One feature of the Chinese political system is if you anoint a successor, you. Actually are creating a rival and you're, creating a new base of power and instantly that person, who's the successor, in Waiting becomes quite powerful, and you're. A lame duck for. Five years and so maybe by not anointing his successor, and singing that he might want to stay he's, just maintaining his own bargaining leverage so. That's one other interpretation. That I think is important to think about either, way my own feeling, is that whether, or not he stays in office or retires, it. Actually doesn't matter as much as you might think because, if he does install a successor, he. Will likely try to install, a a Lackey of his own so he will install someone who is loyal to him and he, will rule from behind the scenes when. This is also common in the Chinese system dong Xiao ping continued, to rule, despite. Not actually having highest level titles so so power in the Chinese system is some. Sense about tiles, but and, many others it's actually about personal relationships within. The system so. Either way I think one takeaway I want you to come away with from the talk today is that we are likely in an era where Xi Jinping is going to be at the center of the Chinese political system, not just for the next five years but likely for the next 10 15. Possibly. Even 20 years of. Course it's a bit difficult to predict so. What, do we know about Xi Jinping so if we're in his era we've gotten a chance to watch him in office now for five years so what is he actually about what is he what, does he care about what makes him tick if. I had to describe him in three, words I would use the following I would say he's nationalist, he. Is authoritarian. And he's, populist, it's, that combination so, nationalism. One, of the key phrases of Xi Jinping thought and I encourage you to go study Xi Jinping thought, is. This. Idea of the coal so-called China dream or Chinese dream depending, on how you see it translated, jungle among in Chinese the. Chinese dream, dates. Back to this idea of national, rejuvenation. There is a narrative in the Chinese political system that China was once a great nation, that status. Was robbed of, it. By foreign, imperialist, powers, beginning, with the opium war there. Is a century, of humiliation, where. China is repeatedly. Infringed. Upon by foreign powers and only. When the Chinese Communist Party comes to power in 1949. That's, the establishment, of a new China and China, has stood up and, so. Xi, Jinping's China, dream is an extension of that narrative and the basic dream. As it has been articulated, is that China will once again become, a strong powerful, and prosperous nation. One. Of the most. Cliche, things you can say about China is that it is a collectivist. Culture, this, is a a, pet. Peeve of mine it's, it's a very simplistic way of thinking and it's in some sense Orientalists, way of describing China. But. In, this instance I think it's important, to emphasize that this China dream people. Americans, here that's may think oh that's the American dream that sounds pretty good it's actually quite distinct, so this this is an image of one of the propaganda posters of the China dream, and, you'll see in Chinese, it's a jungle among China dream and under at what a Hmong means my dream so. We literally have the individual, being, placed subservient, to the nation and to.

Be. Working under under, the a dream is for an individual Chinese citizen it's about achieving the goal the collective, goal of national rejuvenation. So this isn't about I'm gonna work hard and better myself like. The American dream this is a collective, dream this. Nationalism. Has. Been ramped up in recent years and. It. Seems to me that increasingly. The party is relying on nationalism, as a source of legitimacy so, under the Mao era the source of legitimacy was, ideology. And Mao himself. Under. The reform period under dung shopping, and his successors, the source of legitimacy was, performance, so, we're going to deliver goods. Economic. Growth public good provision and so forth now, economic, growth is slowing in China it's, down to roughly 6% and, so. A new source of legitimacy seems, that nationalism, will be the source of that and. We see Xi Jinping being, increasingly and assertive, on the international. Stage you, might have heard about the, South China Sea China's, territorial, claims there his, willingness to to, build Islands, and install, military installations, on that on those islands to buttress territorial. Claims China's. Growing increasingly aggressive. With respect to Taiwan and, reunification. With Taiwan you, might have heard of the one belt one road initiative, or the belt and road initiative, it's, constantly. Rebranded. But, this is China's, marshalled so-called China's Marshall, Plan will. Be a, multi-billion. Dollar investment project. Spanning multiple countries, and multiple constant continents. So, we have a nationalist. Nationalistic. Assertive, Xi Jinping the. Second adjective I used to describe him is authoritarian. China. Always, has these cycles, if you look at the long arc of Chinese history there are there, are ups and downs there, are periods of opening, and periods of closing, so. We have mouths. A dome comes to power and we see a closing, with the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution dong Xiao ping comes to power and we see an opening where, political discourses, liberalized, a little bit then, we have Tiananmen Square massacre, our. Closing and. Then actually if we look back at the 2000s. We didn't maybe realize it at the time but that was a period of relative openness. In Chinese society, under. Xi Jinping we have entered into another closed, period and. I would argue and I don't think I'm alone in this that China today is the most repressive it's been since. The period just following the Tiananmen Square incident and this. Is manifested, itself in a lot of ways there's increasing control, among civil society organizations. One. Of the key tenants of Xi Jinping thought is that party should dominate all aspects, of society. We. Also see the party willing to use good. Old-fashioned repression, detentions, torture, intimidation, to groups, that it doesn't like this, is an image of Li, wen Xue she is the wife of the man in that picture there Wang Chan Jung who, is what's, known as a wait trend lawyer the way trend lawyers in China which, and just means rights protection, these. Are effectively public defenders they are a group of lawyers who are civic minded and have, tried to use the principles, of the Chinese Constitution, which is actually quite liberal on paper to. Help Chinese, citizens, protect, themselves from the government so they take cases, on everything, from labor. Issues, environmental, issues. Property, rights protections, of people who have had their their property demolished by the Chinese government so. These are people that are trying to work on behalf of the the population. And to, protect, the protect, them from the government using. The Constitution, so they're not radicals, actually they're not advocating, revolution. Most. Of them are advocating, that the government. Abide. By constitutionalism. And rule of law today. In China such individuals, to be this type of lawyer has become a crime and. Hundreds. Of them have been detained this particular, individual Wong trend on was detained for three years. Without. Any. Meeting. With his lawyer there's a certain irony in that not, allowed to meet his family we just found out last week that he is still alive but up I was I I was at an event two weeks ago where, his wife spoke and she was unclear whether he was still alive. So. It's, important, to keep, talking about this I think a lot of us when we go to China myself included, you get. There and you think oh this isn't so bad really, it's it's not that bad at all it seems pretty normal here, and, that's. On purpose, and a lot of the repression comes, along in the background and it's, easy to overlook it and it doesn't affect most of the population, but.

For Those individuals, that do try to advocate things like human rights and in political, reform the, the regime is really willing, to do the, dirty business so Xi, Jinping his authoritarian, he, is nationalistic, and the final thing I would say is he's populist so one of the hallmarks, of his which he might have heard of is the anti-corruption, campaign, so. Xi Jinping, came to office and he was quite. Different from his predecessors, he had a little charisma. Who Jintao was, kind. Of known, as being kind of a bland technocrat. She's. In ping-pong. Coming. Into office he went to a steamed bun shop in Beijing kind of ate with normal people he fosters, his image as a man of the people and. One. Of the key. Features of his rule has been cracking down on corruption and corruption in China was. The main threat to the survival of the Chinese Communist, Party so if you look at survey data in China corruption, was always ranked as the number 1 or number 2 issue among the Chinese population the. Levels of corruption were quite high this. Is a feature of an authoritarian, system with no electoral accountability. No. Freedom of the press I lack of civil society organizations, undergoing. The process where business, assets, are being gone. From public to private so this is a recipe for corruption so Xi Jinping comes to power and. Immediately. We see a crackdown on, so-called tigers and flies Tigers are senior levels of officials, within the Chinese system so he's willing to go after the big big, officials, and then, flies are lower, if you're a lower level and official. In China you're called to fly just. Stuff. Maybe one day you'll grow up to be a tiger but for now you're a fly. So. She, didn't pings anti-corruption, campaign. Signals. His, willingness, to tackle the tough issues the. Interpretation, about this campaign they're really two that you'll hear the first is that this is all just a political ploy to, purchase enemies, and. I believe there is some truth to that if you look at the highest levels of the Chinese Communist Party individuals, who have been investigated. And variably, are not. Achieved in pings personal, clique they're people who are in kind of the rival faction or people who might be opposed to him. That said the, other interpretation, is that this is a genuine effort at cleaning, up the party and if you go to China and you talk to individuals, there is some optimism, that Xi Jinping is a strong, leader he's a competent, leader and he's the one that is going to clean up the party I think. There's some truth to both narratives, I if he's investigated. Hundreds of thousands, of individuals I, have. Trouble believing that all of this is politically motivated I do think there is some genuine, antique, Russian behavior going on but. It's important not to be too rosy, about this development in, the sense that actually. Fighting corruption is is. Difficult, but we kind of know the recipe for success in political science and economics how, do you stop corruption well you. Provide, information to citizens on things like government contracts, and, assets. Of officials, you, have a free press which is allowed to do kind of muckraking journalism, you have a civil society organization that works with them, you. Have anti-corruption, agencies, that are independent, in a court system that's independent, and over time you. Will see the reduction of corruption. None. Of those features that I just named are present. In Xi Jinping's anti-corruption campaign. So, this is a top-down campaign. Driven. By the party, kept within the party, and. The party is basically trying to police itself. And. So that's important to keep in mind when we talk about the anti-corruption campaign so. That's what Xi Jinping is about he's populist, he's authoritarian. And he's nationalistic, in terms. Of his popularity, I, would, say I look. At it and I actually see. If. He is popular it's for the same reasons that Donald, Trump is popular I want another 10 minutes without bringing up his name but. So. The. Chinese dream is kind, of a version of make America great again let's make China great again I hate to be simplistic but there is a similarity.

There, The. Authoritarianism, so Donald, Trump and Xi Jinping are both willing, to speak, the language of law and order and use. The tools of coercion to try to repress. Out groups that. Is a common feature in their rule and then, the populism so the. Anti-corruption campaign is, actually kind of a version of drain, the swamp, and. Actually I think in the Chinese case it's it's more, authentic than what we're seeing with Donald Trump in terms of a commitment to clean governance, of course so. The question is is Xi Jinping popular, and as a foreigner, standing, in New York I there I'm hesitant, to even weigh in on this but my. Own sense first. Of all any time we try to assess the popularity of an authoritarian regime this is sort of one of the classic questions, in political science it's. Very difficult to do because. Let's. Say you could do a survey and you ask people do you approve of the performance, of Xi Jinping in office, first. Of all in China you can't that question I do, surveys, in China you cannot you're not allowed to ask this sort of question in other authoritarian, countries so Putin and other authoritarian, leaders have public opinion polling about them and China, you're not allowed to ask about the performance, of any individual, leader but, let's say even if we did have that question and we, see a lot of people approve is. It because they, actually approve, is it. Because they've been indoctrinated to, say they improve or they, is it because they are scared and they. Say they approve even though they don't approve so, it's very difficult to different differentiate, those different possibilities. So. We don't really know how, popular Xi Jinping is, okay, that's an important thing to emphasize my, own sense through my conversations with students friends in China and other people is. That he does maintain, a broad base of support so, people who are intellectuals. Liberals. Business. Elites are generally, less supportive of him because of the themes I've just outlined but. Among the common population he, seems to be viewed as a, strong. Leader who. Is helping change China for the better he's, assertive. Abroad and he's tough at home on people, who have been, guilty of corruption so he does have a base of support. So. All. That being said what what are we looking, about what do we what, should we be thinking about moving forward for China and why was 2017-2018. A big year. I, I, wanted, to point to really three troubling, trends. It's for us to think about as a group the first is that we're, seeing an increasing cult of personality among. About. Xi Jinping so. Again one of the another cliche, or trope, in the study of Chinese politics, there you'll see a lot of Time. Magazine, covers or magazine covers will you'll see like an image of Mao Zedong and then it'll. Be peeled back and there'll be an image of Xi Jinping underneath, or something like this so people keep referring to him as the next Mao or, China's, next Emperor, there's. Just a series of phrases, that are used over and over again along. With like things like dragon I get there's a certain way people, report about China which is a. Little. Simplistic but there. Is some truth to this idea that there is a cult of being person of cult of personality being, fostered around Xi Jinping this is the cover of the People's, Daily Remy nirbhau which is the mouthpiece, of the Chinese Communist Party.

In Red or this is not my own analysis, this was a report, in The Wall Street Journal but they noticed that Xi, Jinping had been mentioned eleven times the. The leading word, in eleven titles on the on the front page of the people's daily and he's. Been mentioned more in the people's daily on the front page of the people's daily than any other leader since Mao Zedong. So. This is troubling in and of itself what's what's particularly troubling about it is at least two a second phenomenon which, is yesman politics, and so. It seems to me that, at the elite level in China today to oppose, Xi Jinping especially, publicly, is career, suicide, and, so what we're observing instead is a lot of sycophants a lot of people trying to ingratiate themselves with, Xi Jinping praising, Xi Jinping thought, universities. Are building institutes, where they study Xi Jinping thought. And. We. Know this is one of the basic tenets of government is that power, should not be concentrated, too much in the hands of one person, at. Best that person is benevolent but. At worst that can lead to extreme policy, making uninformed, policy making this is the vote count, in. The National People's Congress of that amendment that I mentioned the constitutional, amendment where. They got rid of term. Limits for the for the presidency, which is one of the more controversial, controversial, pieces of legislation to happen. In. China within, the last 30 years this, is in Chinese both the National People's Congress is huge, it's the institution, I study it's the largest Parliament, in the world it's got almost 3,000 members we see two thousand nine hundred fifty-eight people voted for it two. People voted against it and three people abstained, and, there's some we don't know who the people are that abstained or voted, against it it's a closed system there's, some speculation, that she didn't ping himself may have been one of those people to, kind of say. Oh yeah people are willing to oppose me but, but. To me this is you, know the National, People's Congress I don't want to get too much into it but it all of the Chinese political system goes according to script that the party controls everything. But. Even. Within these institutions there usually a some opposition and.

What. We observe in China today is that a lot of people are bandwagon around she and I and I worry about, that, the. Final trend I thought it was important to bring up here of all places is. The increasingly, sophisticated surveillance. Date we see in China so I mentioned that China is going through a repressive turn, what. Makes it particularly worrisome, is that this we, have a highly, sophisticated authoritarian. Regime that is now using, the. Fruits of technology, to repress its population and monitor its population, so. This is an image of facial. Recognition software, that's, currently being rolled out it's not national yet but it's being rolled out in different localities in China and so, we are nearing the point where. The Chinese, Communist, Party within, the next few years will. Likely have full information on, its population, so. Using, closed-circuit. Televisions, they have like. I've heard the estimate of 200, million but I've heard that number is gonna rise to 300 million or 400 million closed-circuit. Television, cameras around the country within, the next five to ten years using. Those in combination, with AI, which, can do facial recognition and, I understand, that the technology, is not perfect yet but it will likely get there that, combined, with social media data so. As you all know China Chinese, citizens, that commonly uses an app called waste in WeChat, which. Is sort of like a one app to rule them all not only is it a social network but. It's also a way for people to make. Purchases, so. The Chinese government, of course has a backdoor to that so we have a situation, where, an authoritarian government has. Full information on these social networks the political, commentary, the purchases, and the geographic, locations, of all of its citizens. And. This. Is the dark side of AI, and big data and this sort of technology, and it's. Something again we need to be talking about and you all as technically leaders I'm sure are aware of this but it's something that we need to be having discussions about and it's an abuse of this sort of technology and China, I should say that it's it. Seems that this. Technology, is being described, as again a way to preserve law and order, and. It's being said oh this is going to be used to catch jaywalkers. And other, petty criminals, and. Again. It's unclear whether or not Chinese citizens support this there might be a faction of them that does and says oh okay if you, have nothing to worry about if you're not doing anything wrong. But. It doesn't take a genius or, a critic or a skeptic to say that of this, we'll also be used to target. Political. Dissidents, protesters, petitioners, and so forth anybody that's causing trouble in the Chinese system I should. Say that as a political scientist, a lot of us do fieldwork in China and I was part of you a couple conversations in, the last couple years about, the. One thing we do often with our interview subjects is we guarantee anonymity, we say okay we can meet and I, will never use your name in anything, I write and I there will never be any record of this interview out in public now. That we're operating in China I don't think I could go to China and tell someone that I can. Assure, that no one knows about this meeting because the the state is everywhere I, should. Also say that this technology is being rolled out in a part of China called shinjang Shenyang, as a province in western China. Where. There is a large Muslim population, known as the we Gers I. Encourage, you to read. About Shin Jung Xin. Jie, ng. This. Is not my area of expertise, but there's increasing evidence coming, out of cynjohn that these sorts of technologies are being used, to. Basically. Put, a large chunk of the Muslim population into. Re-education. Camps, so, the level of repression that's being used in, concert with this technology is very alarming so. I wanted to leave time for questions and I wanted to close by, just using this phrase end of an era which is which is not mine there's a book, that just came out called end of an era by Karl Minster which does, a nice job of summarizing some of the trends that I just spoke about but. She didn't ping is saying we're at the beginning of a new era which. Inherently, means we're at the end of an old era and.

To, Me it seems one of the big takeaways of the, last year the last five years has, been that the, Communist Party the Chinese Communist Party, the. Success. Or failure of the Communist Party now lies in, the hands of this person and one of the old lessons, of Communist. Party history, and this. Is the lesson of the Mao era is that no. Single leader should become too powerful and. It seems to me that this lesson has being been forgotten so, thank. You I will I will leave it there and I and we can open it up to questions Thanks. Yes. Hi I one. Of the things that I was thinking about during the talk was. Why. Is this, happening, now and, you know I can sort of imagine maybe, it's she's. Personality. And his strong. Leadership or. Maybe it's a weakening, of the existing. Institutions but. You. Know why didn't, this happen with a previous leader what sort of kept them in check that's. A good question it's. Difficult to answer the. Common narrative, you would hear is that the previous leader who Jintao, was. Actually didn't, have this force, of personality it, wasn't a particularly strong leader he was not, anointed, by. His predecessor, Jung Simon he was actually anointed, by dong Xiao ping so dung Xiao Qing's leaves office and anoints his next two successors, John's, min in who Jintao so who Jintao had a reputation and sort of a a bland. Technocratic, guy that you know knew how to make policy but didn't know actually how to command the party and. So this, in some sense leaves, a power. Vacuum that Xi Jinping has been willing to step in, in. Terms of why now I think another thing to emphasize is, that this was incremental. So there were little moves that happen along the way and they, went unchecked so. For example so she's jumping upon. Entering office there was a dramatic purge, of one of his rivals named Bo Xilai where. This person was, trying. To get himself on the Pablo Standing Committee and it's there's evidence that she didn't paying engineered, his very. Elaborate, downfall. This, would be unusual and so that sort of thing happens and we start seeing the anti-corruption campaign fold, out unfold. And over, time he becomes, so powerful it's, like a self-perpetuating, prophecy. Once someone becomes this powerful, now. To be opposed to him is futile, so I think that's one of the the elements to is that these the institutions, maybe weren't strong enough in the beginning to to constrain him yeah thanks, here. Maybe hi. Sorry. To bring up Donald Trump again but just, a curious, thought experiment, oh great but, then. Decided. To get, to the term them and I I think they were saying the term said hey maybe we should try maybe we should do this someday yeah, so Mike alarming. A tall question. I thought experiment says so. Assuming. That's given, Trump's also having a populist agenda if serum matters to kids we go back to it and, I know that culturally the u.s. is very very different interpreter, from China but if, you rather try to get rid of tones in the u.s. like based. On your understanding of authoritarian, regimes how would what. Might be the path of least resistance for, him to go about doing that I took. A very dark turn in this conversation and. We're already in the dark place, so. The question is about, Donald. Trump if he were also to try to similarly consolidate, power and potentially erode the, term-limit institution. It's. Interesting what right, when Donald Trump was elected, there's a lot. Of political scientists, much more senior than I am I'm, jr.. If you couldn't, tell people. Have been in the field for a long time were, sincerely. Alarmed, about, the erosion of democracy, in the United States and that democracy, is something we take for granted here it's been around for hundreds of years we expected, to be around the future but. Democracies. Elect, themselves out of, democracy. They elect leaders that have authoritarian, tendencies that consolidate, power so there were there were legitimate causes, for concern among. The. Political. Science community about Donald, Trump's authoritarian, tendencies and, I think he's time and time again revealed. That. He has a certain, envy. Let's call it of authoritarian. Leaders he's done so with kim jeong-hoon Putin. And Xi Jinping in. Terms of this specific scenario, my, hope as an American citizen whereas, if this ever came to pass we would see opposition, among. Not. Just the Democrats but among the Republican, Party at some point the Republican, Party needs, to realize that this is, unusual. And unsustainable, and they need to side. With democracy over the party and so I I hope, we've, said that before there's. Been the Trump presidency has, been a constant. Series of events, we're. All saying is this yeah is it is it this is it are they finally going to oppose him so my, hope is that we would see opposition, I would also say there are there are major major differences, of course between the Chinese political system in the United States in.

Particularly The strength of our institutions, and the court system and a legislative branch in the media. And the ability to have public discourse is, is. Way. Above what there exists in China so I think the outcry the public outcry would be enough so that that scenario will never come to pass. It's. My optimistic, take yeah I. Questioned. Sure what. Do the Chinese people know. About these constitutional. Changes. And. Specifically. The term limits and and. Also in Xi Jingping thought is there any mentioning, of. Confucianism. At, all does it refer back to. Yeah. So those, are two good questions so again as a foreigner. I'm hesitant, to ever make claims about this is what the Chinese people know and this is what they don't. So. I would say the depiction, of this in the Chinese, media has been that this wasn't a big deal, and, a. Lot of the outcry that occurred was. Among people like me foreigners, who study China or write about China and. The reason it was pinned as not a big deal is because actually, the, position, of president, in the People's Republic of China if, you actually look at the Chinese Constitution it's, basically a ceremonial, position so, that office, is not, in. It of itself that important, it's important, because the person who inhabits, it is the, head of the party so. That's one reason why it was deemed not that important, the second reason is that there actually are no term limits on the position of General Secretary of the Communist Party so. That position has never had any term limits there's been a norm that that person only stays in power for two terms but there was never and actually anything on paper that prescribed, that so the way this was positioned, and among, people in China who were describing, this was that all, of this reform, does all this amendment does is put the position of the presidency, syncs, it up with the position of the General Secretary of the Communist Party so now nothing has term limits so that's the way it was phrased but. For those of us on the on the outside, looking in it, seems that this is a very obvious, example of, an existing, institution, that was designed to curb excess, abuses, of power accumulation. Of power being. Eroded so. I my, sense is that the average Chinese citizen is probably not an uproar about this but, I think it does remain a pretty significant, political event in terms of Confucianism. One. Of the elements of Xi Jinping has been not, just the nationalism, sort of in a foreign policy front but a cultural, nationalism, and the Communist Party is being the bearer of Chinese, cultural, traditions, so Confucianism. I. Am. No expert but, there are elements of Confucianism. That are conducive, to authoritarian, rule in particular the emphasis, on hierarchy and the relationship, between the ruled and the ruler, and so.

We've Seen a resurgence, of, Confucianism. And the emphasis on Confucianism. In, China especially, as an alternative, to foreign. Ideologies, like Christianity. And and so forth so I don't believe I'd have to look back I don't that she didn't think there's a whole book on Xi Jinping thought, and I I couldn't. Get through it to be honest with you, but. I I don't believe it's mentioned in great detail but it's culturally. And politically, it has been an emphasis to, to focus on traditional Chinese, culture and heritage and the, Communist Party and Xi Jinping are our, protectors, of that thank. You yes. Hi. My, question. Is about the surveillance. State but I'll come. Through dito which is in. The last questioner from this microphone you mentioned the big institutional. Differences, between, this country and China and I'd. Say democracies. In general and China and. Authoritarian. Regimes, now. All. Of, the world is going into, the. World of new. Surveillance. Technologies, together, and. We. Don't have institutions, surrounding those yet so do. You think there's a, chance. Or danger that democracies, around the world will, follow. In the model that China is developing and, we'll probably first develop. To the greatest extent and that everyone will just sort of stumble into. Yeah. So I I have a certain. Yeah. I have, that personality, type that worries about these sort of things in the rise of the surveillance state and Google as a company as you you. Of all people know is involved. In the collection of information on normal citizens which could potentially be used by. A government, for these sorts of purposes so I I'm, glad you brought up the question and something we need to be talking about Allah, and I hope, I'm assuming. You all are talking about this quite frequently I, think, in the u.s. that has a different flavor to it I again, I'm not within the CIA I don't have it much of a window as to what's going on but it, seems that it's being used for for, again for issues of national security and, and, information, collection that can be, used.

By The US government to monitor terrorist suspects and so forth, in, China, they would also argue that this is about national security all, right so the dissidents, and protesters, and so forth are undermining, national, security so it's always government's, using the lens of national security to. Infringe. Upon people's, civil liberties and. So it is something I think we should be concerned about and I think the difference in the u.s. versus. China is that in the u.s. there's at least a dialogue about this and citizens, have. Willingly, given over their information because the technology, is so good Facebook, Google Twitter and, so forth the the tools are so great that we willingly give forward our information, but, I think we are at a point where if. It falls into the wrong hands or if you have a certain type of leader even in the US this this information, can be abused, Thanks. Never. Answered that question before, but thank, you for asking yeah could, you explain a little bit on the world's. Largest Parliament, I know you made a point about how well it's orchestrated. By the party. But what's, it like in its daily affairs how often is that orchestration, happen how deep does it go thank. You for asking this question so this is the topic of my dissertation so. This brings me back to, a a, sad. Lonely depressing, time in my life. So. Then I'll just give a brief answer because I could talk about this for a while but the National People's Congress is China's Parliament, and it has 3,000, members it meets, only once per year for, two weeks, so, you can imagine such an institution, is not exactly, a forum, for great policy. Discussion, and they sit in a large room called the Great Hall of the People which has 3,000 people so often. When you hear about the National People's Congress you hear the words rubber stamp and there, is some truth to that so nothing ever, before, the Parliament in the history of the institution before, the full body has ever been voted down ever. So. That's. Not a rubber stamp I don't know what is. That. Said so one of the arguments I make I did, write a book on this it's one of those books that I wouldn't. Wish it on anybody to read it but if you're interested, I have, a form I might as well self promote it's called making autocracy, work but. The argument, I try to make is that actually this is one of those institutions. That the Communist Party is trying to use to. Channel, citizen, grievances, through. Their, institutions. So rather than have people protest, on the street and potentially engage in violence they're trying to create political institutions, that they control, but. That nevertheless serve, some. Conduit. Of information. That the government can then respond to you so the People's Congress system is actually a network of these. Institutions. There are five different levels of government, and. All. The way on down to what's known as a Township level in China and there are hundreds, of thousands, of legislators. In China, people's. Deputies they're called and so, what I've argued in this book is that these people are their task is to go out and learn about the population, and try to convey.

This Information to the central government but this shouldn't be confused with democracy that shouldn't be confused with full. Representation, these, people are hand-picked, by the Communist Party and they are not allowed to cross. The boundary so that you'll never hear about a People's Congress deputies, saying oh maybe we should talk more about the surveillance date or maybe we should have elections for the position. Of the presidency, so it's a very constrained system. But. Thank you for that question that's. Easy thank. You very much thank. You I also, wanted to ask you about the International Affairs aspect, of, Xi. Jinping's administration. You. Talked a little bit about nationalism, and how the. Xi Jinping administration, is becoming more assertive, internationally. Especially, in, South. South. Asia area. The. Pelton Road could you talk a little bit about more. About that and where. Do you see this administration, sort of do. You see them applying. The tools that, they apply internally, the repression, the surveillance outside. Of the borders of China through. Technology, and also, through politics, and kind, of money. Yeah, that's a that's a great question so it is it's a broad question because, China's, formulations, are multifaceted and. You. Know I've span everything from territorial, claims and ambitions, to the. Economy, environment and so forth the one thing I did want to mention which I haven't yet is. This idea of Chinese overseas, influence, and so there's a lot of discussion going on in the US Congress right now about so-called, China's, influence operations. And the, way that it's increasingly, using some of these tools to try to. Shift. Discourse, in the US and other advanced democracies, in Australia, New Zealand this is a this is a major issue, we. See this manifest, itself in a lot of different ways the. One trend, that I'm noticing, and worrying about is this. Using. The market, using the access to China, as. A way to coerce, people and. I'm here at Google a company that has had, its search engine throttled, over the years and is known no, longer has the market share it should in China because of this reason so. A lot of companies. Journalists. Academics universities. Are facing this. Decision, of do, I play. By the party's, rules and, compromise. My, business. Or my values, in, order to get access to China so this manifests, itself in a lot of different ways so. Academics. We face pressure if we write about certain things we have a fear of potentially, losing visa access, in. The grand scheme of things a visa is not a huge deal we're gonna be fine but it's it's, a manifestation, of that firms you. Might have read about a lot of US airlines now have been. Forced. To change their websites, because, they can no longer have the word Taiwan on their website because Taiwan is a sensitive, topic, and you it's considered, part of China according to the Chinese government and. On and on nine Cambridge University Press, is an example that's close to home for. Us. Cambridge. University Press, runs a journal called the China quarterly, which is a China journal at. The pressure of the Chinese government last year was a two years ago I, can't remember they removed. Upwards, of 300, articles from their website in China and the articles were all about things like Kahneman Square and shinjang, Tibet, sensitive, topics, and. This is alarming right because if then if you're a Chinese citizen and you're reading the Chinese quarterly, you're getting a sanitized, version of scholarship. On China you're getting a sanitized, version of history and. That's the version that the party wants you to get so. Fortunately, as a result of AK I mean pressure we saw Cambridge University Press eventually. Reversed its stance but all of these all these individuals, are facing this decision, and it's it's a commonality, actually, between firms journalists, universities. And academics, so, that's one thing that's alarming to me another. Thing that that is concerning, is the, monitoring. That we used to see reserved, for China is now being extended overseas, so there are a lot of Chinese students. At, American universities, and this. Is something we need more research on so I'm hesitant, to make a statement but it. Seems when what I've heard that there are many Chinese students, who are feel. That they are under the same level of surveillance in an American classroom than they would be at a Chinese University so I teach a course on Chinese politics and we talk about sensitive, topics a Chinese. Student my course might feel reluctant to say how they really feel or what they think about the Chinese government because, they're worried that they might be being monitored or that information might make its way back to the Communist Party so it's we, are entering a phase where Xi Jinping is assertiveness, has now led, the Communist Party to try.

To Influence discourse, and and, in. Dialogue in other countries, and that's that's the trend that I am worried about so thank you for the question here. Yes, you. Partially, ask actually, my question but I want, to extend the topic mention, the influence, is going aboard, but mainly, focusing on like Chinese, seasoned, what. Is influence. Globally. What other countries, and do, you see a possible, backfire, and would other country, trying to how. Does it interfere with China's. Government, usual, stuff so. The that's a great question. So. For a long time the the party, rhetoric, about this was that China does not interfere within, the sovereign affairs of other countries that was the line is sort of this doctrine of non-interference leave, us alone we'll leave you alone. It's. Unclear whether we should believe that ever but it's increasingly, obvious that they. Do interfere, and some of the ways I just mentioned. More. Interestingly. Important, to think about is this idea that the Chinese system of governance itself. Could. Increasingly, become a model for other countries particularly, developing countries to emulate this is the so-called China model and it means different things to different people but it's. Basically you have a system of authoritarian governments, soft authoritarianism. If we want to call it that although I don't know how soft it is coupled. With state led capitalism. And. China. Has the record of economic. Performance that, is potentially appealing to other countries so it, remains, unclear how much they're actually trying to shift, the governance, models, of other, countries I have a friend Maria rep Nick OVA who's a great. Political scientist, based. At Georgia. State and she's, doing some work on this and she's interviewing, officials throughout Africa, who are increasingly, going to China to be trained and. Until, study governance, techniques from the Chinese system as opposed to a Western, system so I think it's, still too early to tell how much how, much influence there will, be but I think it's it will likely increase so, on. That, I think I'm actually out of time so thank you all for this this opportunity. You.

2018-08-11 16:10

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Comments:

Great talk!

Hi turkey professor,there isn’t “Tiananmen Square massacre”,....in 1989,chinese government just enforced their law and order..in fact chinese government did best,they did as peaceful as any government could have done.

China should just kick out google. No one wants google in China

Coercion is too strong a word. China give u a choice, if companies wants to invest in China, follow their rules.If u don’t agree , u can go.Is this coercion? I see all these companies keep coming back because there is too much profit to be earned. If I have integrity, I would stay out of China.

It is easy to take the speaker's "dark place" view (not to mention Trump pre-occupation) - a lot of what he said could be easily interpreted "optimitically".

The Chinese political system is a closed door decision making .They have already fought , argued their case out before final decision is made . When it is finally revealed to everyone, the decision has been made way before hand. Second, the face recognition technology is used in airport or nearly everywhere in the world , for all kinds of purposes.China is not an exception. China now embarked on the great plans under Xi because they think it is the right time .They have the potential to do great things now.It is also because of the centennial anniversary. Also, they have to find new ways of sustaining their economic growth as the industry moves to a higher valued added one, like service or financial sectors. Previously, their development were still in the infancy stages or building up stages.

The Chinese in China wants job with good pay, good education,good housing and health benefits and insurance s, a yearly bonus ... If u don’t have all these , could democracy works? Just like America.Ask an uneducated farmer who to vote.He would reply,” Someone who promise to help me in my job regardless whether that person is honest or not.I don’t care.” That is one man , one vote.That is why Trump won.

Just listen enough.How many western analysts and scholars get their predictions correct about China?

Determinism requires capital, therefore nations don't change.

At 37:00, talking about backdoors in software and surveillance being sold to "protect the public", he should have learned something from Snowden, the TSA and the Department of Homeland Security, which are said to "protect the public" while encroaching into everything citizens (and non-citizens) do. Does the name Carter Page ring a bell Mr. Truex? I don't agree with China's policies but a guy in New York criticizing China while not mentioning Guantanamo, "renditions" and the us of plain torture in the U.S. should not sound so condesending. Finally, unless one is talking about democracy Swiss-style, I'm sorry, every other kind is deeply flawed, particularly in the U.S. where a President can be elected without winning the popular vote. No other Western democracy allows a president to be elected without winning the popular vote, some countries, like France or Colombia, have a run-off because the president must win more than half the popular vote. The questions made clear the difference between Academia and real people living in the real world.

Xi for life means disaster for China!!!

This video is nothing but you talk about Human rights in China fix your Human rights at home. Do some reflection and you will find out that you are projecting.

but why is still there's a Google support in all there phones? I guess they've their own "appstore" and all the other programs that can run the "apps" again.. Why is that happening? all the huge Mobile companies launch their devices with GOOGLE's overlay or support.... whatever the word you like...but do answer please! i would like to meet this guy someday.

Tony Lin alot

Android, which is an open-source project, is owned by Google. Anyone or any OEM can use modify/use/adapt Android, whether they're in China or not, whether Google is cooperating with China or not. Makes sense?

fiona fiona that's not helping... let's meet in a dream first! RIGHT NOW!

Harsh Ranveer I Don't know how to identify my self as biological and have no idea how deleting a comment will affect your visa/employment chances in China otherwise I presume you will be all right.

fiona fiona what are you a bot? why are you learning from me? should i delete these comments now? ummm Jarvisss? FRIDAY!

Harsh Ranveer No offense taken

fiona fiona Got it... I'll be on right side... again thank you sir/ma'am

Harsh Ranveer I suppose China is a concern to India beyond how I perceive it especially since increasing economic ties did in fact not even require a regulated cease fire. All things I suggested would kill you as surely but more plasently/bearable it's not as if it wouldn't be as feasible to extract cyanide from cherry seeds I just am of the (possibly gendered) opinion that death by (hallucigenic) sedatives is one of the more appealing options (opiates connecting China and present day America nicely). Still please no one kill them selves and make sure to be on Western news rather than Chinese CCTV when setting flames to your body.

software is pretty easy to replace. I would think thats why most google services are free and rely mostly on advertising funds

They probably expect China to enslave Britain again.

fiona fiona I DO NOT LIVE IN USA! and don't try to opium me i don't know what it is... I LIVE IN INDIA! and in india a cobra's "venom" kills you! so i was referencing about killing myself! Coz I'm certainly concerned about India and china is no too far from it... So i just wanna be sure changes made by that land doesn't effect MY LAND! AND I CAN'T BELIEVE I HAD TO BREAK IT DOWN THIS MUCH TO MAKE YOU! UNDERSTAND, UNDERSTAND A COMMENT!

Harsh Ranveer I suppose you might be in the USA and would suggest an opioid overdose as they are available, recognized and rather dangerous to society (opium wars had reasons) while providing a high predictability and comfortable exit from live venom, poison and projectiles don't necessarily provide let alone politicise (unless you find a way to (people less) have a gun kill you or prefer to highlight issues with authoritys (police)) Please be aware of the many things to be done with continuous life and how I hope they will be positive for you and many others.

fiona fiona That was really helpful... need to get some black cobra venom. Thank You Mam

Harsh Ranveer Not sure, a microwave that would turn on without closing or remotely from the inside wouldn't fit security measures, I value, limiting my chances of prognosis(best case your had was saved and you don't feel anything maybe it boils water frequency molecules killing you pretty fast) .

fiona fiona what if i put my head into a microwave oven and turn it on?

Some one else will and equally slide in my opinion indifferent of the little consequences my opinion has.

fiona fiona And....what if they don't?

Harsh Ranveer Because China has more potential customers than the entirety of Europe. Google dose obey Chinese demand for censorship and possibly cooperates future.

ONLY REASON i will trust Google from now is that You guy's chose a better guy to explain things... trust me previous ones were awful to listen to... and watch...! This is another reason that you chose good colors... Blue and Green! Edit:- Got the answer at 29:18 sorry i have this problem of posting things while watching the video... You can call it Premonition! Thanks... that search box really helped there

Tony Lin I understand Sir i should sleep now it's 3:12 am here in 2018!

Adam: I think you have a very different definition of slave than the society does. No one serious will believe there are slaves in China; there are hard-working workforce in China struggling for live, just like there are in any other developing countries. The communist party in China is also not a dictatorship; it is autocracy. Call me picky on words but i don't like see words being misused to offend people.

Adam Blainey wait! what's a homestead?

Adam Blainey I see it! I'll see it.

Harsh Ranveer crazy weather? You mean weather warfare. Goes with the electric technologies. My solution would be to become an entrepreneur and learn to homestead.

Tony Lin I didn’t mean they are all slaves but there are definitely slaves both in the workforce and in the mind (believing a communist dictatorship is a republic).

Tony Lin I'd really like to live on My Land(me personally) seriously!

I am no fan of the Chinese government neither but one'd have to so ignorant and disrespectful to say lives in China are slaves.

I get it this is a biological war because of the test of atomic biological weapons... scrambled frequencies, weather going crazy... and now these sound waves... so... war is already here! but what's your solution for that? just curious

Adam Blainey Exactly... only thing i can say is go read some positive (not in english) "things" and shape this stupid "PING" that was my suggestion what's yours?

Harsh Ranveer big war coming so you might as well get to know Him now, as it is likely we all could be meeting Him very soon. Imagine a communist dictatorship with a lifetime dictator and the Left in the West LOVES IT!

Adam Blainey Gold Bond! hmmm again "Premonition"... thanks... this is just getting worst...Who to trust now? God?

Harsh Ranveer I know it is. China likely has back door access to google. They run hollyweird now. Free western countries should not be dealing with the corrupt slave owners in “the people’s republic”. Instead the rich children of the slave owners are all shipping into the west. They call it the golden mountain.

I see... But I can't Trust CHINA either... so even if they're connected to other higher societies! I don't wanna serve china Man... you know what happens if China Rules everything if not then go search it's happening already in China... It's a Hell on Earth

Harsh Ranveer google should never be trusted.

No no I am pretty sure your Chinese students are reluctant to discuss with you because you have a already know all about CCP and China. You have already got it all figured. You have got all the answers. What is in it for them to try to change your mind? Why would they want to disabuse you of the notion that you a young brilliant white academic of Princeton has got the Xi Jinping and CCP neatly pigeon holed.

Excuse me. "Xi Jinping upon entering office there was a dramatic purge of one of his rivals Bo Xilail"!. Come on cut the crap. Bo Xilai fell from power was in March 2012 because of the Wang Lijun incident. Xi Jinping assumed post of General Secretary of CCP and Chairman the CPC Central Military Commissionof in November 15, 2012. And "there was evidence that Xi Jinping engineered his elaborate downfall"; please do show us in your "evidence" in your next YouTube appearance or in print. Otherwise you are just one the many dishonest so called Western China experts that is so commonly found among the American liberal elite and neocon community, your rolled up sleeve and jean notwithstanding.

Basically, this talk is a waste of time because it is the same narrative/repitition you can find anywhere else on the major press....

Most Sinophiles including Prof. Truex fall into this trap, that is most of them want China to become more like the western countries, however, the political and or economic situation is far more complex and complicated, one of the explanations is China has a winning formula now operating as it is and why should it operate under a different formula/system? I believe a real SInophile is someone who is observing a current situation and possibly making some judgement/forecast of what are the possible outcomes sometimes in the future rather than making moral/political/economic judgements of what China should do or not do. Most Sinophiles do not realise is that President Xi did his PhD on Marxist theory, do you think he wants China to operate under a democratic system? I watched this video half way through do not believe or agree with everything he says here, do you own research if you are interested in this subject. Then make up your mind.

I wish people wouldn’t so quickly resort to the Tu Quoque fallacy.

This could be the beginning of another era of turmoil for China now it's under the rule of the "Xi Emperor." The China Dream might prove to be a bitter disappointment for the Chinese people in the end.

I remember reading from Professor Galbraith when I was young that in every time and age, there will be persons that will spread the gospel of the group's message. These persons that say and repeat what most institutions think and believe will be promoted to the top and have some kind of attention and fame. I think Mr. Truex is such a person that repeats what the group wants to hear and promotes their beliefs etc. I'm sure he's a bright young man but lacks originality of thought. I think Google was trying to promote some kind of "bad human rights" image onto China for a while before getting kicked out of the county. Let's see if Google can do a more subtle play here and if they'll succeed this time.

this man obviously did not know anything about Xi Jinping. His father was sent to prison,and never come back,Xi himself was exiled to the countryside because of his father.Xi tried 10 times just to join the party. His success has nothing to do with his father. His father only left him with trouble. this man described Xi Jinping as a prince, but obviously he did not have enough knowledge to speak on the stage.

Using the selective facts or hypesthetic logic do not reflect this point, instead it just proves how biased it is. Talking about the result rather than the old fashioned bias on democracy etc. Not all the countries want Brexit type of politics pls.

lol, westerners think they know what Chinese want. we want your money, will you give us?

Chinese people needs to think about whether Chinese style communism is what they want after average economic and education level increased; if they are able to be not brain-washed at that point. The Outlook looks bleak though considering Chinese history and culture tendency

He said "No self-respecting political scientist would ......." How true and sad. It just reinforces the perception that US political scientists are conformists or they would not have much of a career. He should also pay attention to the facts from Wikileaks about the myth of the Tiananmen "massacre".

Cultural revolution not included in critical years?

Nobody deserves it.

President for life is western people said not china .

Your Chinese is quite amazing for a foreigner.

Grossly misunderstood China and Xi Jinping. Another Westerner sees Chinese leaders from the Western point of view using Western value and cultural reference. Can be ignored.

100 senators for life。What does it mean?

No need to teach the White people how to be evil, they are evil. No need to teach the White people how to kill, they are killers. Just take a look a Syria, look at what the White people have been doing in that country. More than half a million Syrians already been slaughtered, and half the population of the country have been displaced. They killed so many people just because they don't like "dictator" Bashar Hafez al-Assad? Guess which President will get the Nobel peace prize once Syria regained stability? The President of USA?

Think about Steve Jobs of Apple and Jack Ma of Alibaba; don't you think it's better for them to lead these two great companies for a longer period? Primitive White people and their primitive binary-mode of thinking: Satan = Evil & God = Good; Communism = Evil & Democracy = Good; Socialism = Evil & Capitalism = Good. Primitive semi-civilised White barbarians always think that they primitive brains are very sophisticated. If you want to know why the White people are still so violent as compared to the Muslims and Chinese, then think back 500 years. Apart from technologies, everything else from the White people comes from 500 years ago. The Chinese want Xi to lead their country for a longer period; he will be able to exlpain to the semi-civilised White barbarians what is civilisation.

his father was later free from prison in bad health.

Brainwashing? No one does it better than Fox News and BBC.

Most Chinese people here are hating on this guy for repeating the mainstream western views without realizing they are reacting in the typical mainstream Chinese way. If you want a comparative analysis between Chinese and Western governments' flaws then go listen to Chomsky. This guy is here to talk about just Chinese politics, and obviously he going to it from a western academic perspective. I enjoyed this talk up till about 35:42, that's when I fell asleep.

The only thing that the typical Chinese citizen cares about is that they have money and that their family lives an incrementally better life. They don't give a crap about what kind of "system" the country uses, who is in charge, and whether there's a freedom of speech. In other words they're very practical people. On the flip side the only thing that the Chinese leadership cares about is to prevent people from rioting which means keeping them happy -- this is the only way they can stay in power. I'd say this is a much better relationship than here in the US. Sure we have freedom of speech but where is that getting us? Sure we have democracy and so we have Trump. The US is a place where the country is ran by the super rich in the shadow so when shit hits the ceiling you don't even know who to blame.

LOL I guess you can't talk freely about China when your audience is predominantly Chinese, can you?

very superficial analysis on China, typical so called "China expert" in the US. Not laughable but sad.

Trump is going to be like Xi. President of the US for life.

Zack Financial infastructure plays a big part but ultimately geography is #1. The Dutch were briefly richer then the English were only when they had a supperior financial banking system which allowed them to utilize loans and credit to advance investment, but once England and France caught on and adopted these same finance techniques the geography factor took back preminence as the most important factor over financial institutions. You can be a minor nation like Holland in the 17th century and overtake massive territories like England, Germany and France in wealth using institutional techniques, but at the end of the day England and France just copy what Holland is doing and proceed to blow them out of the frame completely with the shear power of their geography combined with the brilliant finance of the Dutch. There is a reason why the Roman invasion of Gal was what ultimately destroyed them, by invading France the Romans effectively transfered all of their advanced technology to a periphiral sattalite region which had far supperior geography then Italy did. France naturally outstripped Rome over time in food and capital production and became its own entity entirely because it was self sufficent and utilized Roman farming technolgy and fully embraced Roman institutions like education and governance. Rome with poor geography had to rely on grain shipments from Egypt and elsewhere meanwhile France was producing mass amounts of food and transporting that food along it's navigatible waterways leading to massive commerce and the development of a very capital rich area. Rome had supperior institutions but as soon as other periphiral regions with better geography adopted these same institutions it was the geographic factor which determined strategic power.

Ham Sarris therefore money and currency is the root of all power and control

He is a repeater or transmitter. But with missing info

I have not watch this video yet but if you Google give a millimeter to China I am going to abandon you 100% PLEASE don't be silly and stupid like Apple, one day China is going to OWN 100%of the cells phones market and like Microsoft allowing Chinese government to steal everything and Chinese companies are going to be buying everything from USA and promoting hate for America all over the world please don't give a millimeter to China because China is the biggest violators of humanity and stealing everything, don't be silly and stupid. just for MONEY

the weakness of dictatorship is that the country is doomed if the dictator is a fool. Mr. Xi happens to be that fool.

Quite impressed, I actually don't expect to see such a clear view on China and Xi. As a citizen, I will say that I support his anti-corruption campaign, which is outrageous; but meanwhile, I am disappointed by the fact that the liberals are suppressed and the media can't question the change in political area. I hope the country could be more liberal, more rational, more people's welfare oriented, rather than the gov.

Westerner point of view on Chinese politic will never understand what really going on there.

The Chinese system is actually more democratic than the west's capitalism when people are ruled by money.

As a Chinese from mainland, coming back to China after living several years in a western country, I have to say this guy does know something about China (basic facts one can easily learn from some exposure to China or even from mainstream western media), but some key points and underlying logic of his narration about Chinese politics are just off the target he meant to hit.

Prof bullsheet

Xi will never be the president for life. The most is one more term. The Communist Party change the constitution to safeguard the successor.

评论里愚昧的大陆人试图用英文骗老外,呵呵。外国人偏见朝鲜么,外国人偏见越南么,外国人偏见苏联么,外国人刚巧偏见了中国?不要以为自己特殊,自己不是享受rogue regime的统治。

了解一下越南战争,朝鲜战争和冷战?

周边那些流氓政权对国民啥样,自己都没逼数。

Chinese students in US are afraid of surveillance by FBI more than communist China. Media and politician like to demonize Chinese students as spies and thieves. Actually, majority of Chinese students are just want to study the advanced science and technology in US, which is what US university want to offer . Now, due to jealous of some American people, the desire to study has been labeled as stealing.

What a moron

Basically, it's very superficial and quite misunderstanding.

Communist China is a thief and committing illegal activities against the United States government

Chinese never worry about a competent leader having a lot of power. While in the Western democracy, we established Check and Balance to limit it. Throughout China's history, the people and society concerned about Peaceful transition of power after a good leader getting too old to make wise decisions any more,or after he passed away, will there be a bloody struggle among the princes which sometime expanded outside of the royal family resulting in a internal warfare tearing the society apart for a very long period of time. Old dynasty overthrown and replaced by new dynasty. China become a republic in 1911 to follow the inevitable trend to give democracy a try. Odds are against it. Actually, besides,UK, USA and some Western European countries, doing well( industrialization and colonialism are suspected reasons of their success) after WWII till about 1970's. Latin American, Asian, African and new democracies after breakup of Warsaw pact, Arab spring, the whole third world, failed miserably in the test. China after the 1978 reform which is quite revolutionary and enjoyed continued success for 4 decades, improvements were pursued in their legal system and maybe political reform to lead to western style democracy. Getting more confidence from the success of economy, science and technology advancements, China looked inward and brought out the old standard of " good governance" vs. " bad governance" and saying it should be the universal standard for all forms of governments, western style democracies or one ruler system like China established by the first emperor 22 centuries ago. It's still too early to pass a judgement.

Ah, neoliberalism, it never gets old, emphasizing non-issues and full of wishfull thinking, and rarely offer practical solutions. No thanks, I'd rather talk to a vicious realist, at least he doesn't bullshit.

china is shit folks

puff, you know nothing about politics in China.

Another under-cooked "China Expert" trying to decipher Chinese culture and its President. This Prof. spoke with anti-China rhetoric and did not properly contrast it to United States. Talking to a few friends in China and students is not going to make a China expert. Almost convinced me that America is on high moral ground.. United States (President Trump) Nationalist - Make America Great Again / Buy America Authoritarian - You are fired! / Divide America Populist - Tax cut for the rich / Trade war. China (President Xi) Nationalist - China Dream / China 2025. Authoritarian - Anti-corruption / Law and order. Populist - Poverty alleviation / One Road & Belt Initiative. Our dear Prof. brought up the Tiananman incident. Good. But he deliberately cherry picked information for discussion. He forgot (or deliberately don't mention) that many peaceful protesters (protesting innocents killed by the police) in the United States were violently put down by army equipped Riot Police! These incidents in the United Stated happened in the last one two years! Please Google video for American riot police violently putting down unarmed American civilians. May I kindly ask where is that "freedom of expression" that you often preached ? ? Welcome the United States to the authoritarian club. By the way, President Trump dictates everything. Overstepping all its Secretaries and security agencies..! Most of the WH and Agencies staff who disagreed with Trump were replaced. Its Secretary of States were fired while still on government trip in Africa! Stormy Daniel were harassed, arrested, and threatened after going public with her relationships with Trump. Therefore "authoritarian" should not be reserved to describe China political system only. United Stated included. Welcome the United States to the authoritarian club. On the rhetoric of President Xi being a "princeling", United States have their princelings as well. George W. Bush and Jeb Bush, and etc. Thus, "princeling" cannot be exclusively used for China only. Welcome the US to the princeling club. Like to conclude that the Prof. presentation was very shallow in facts with no insights. It entailed more conspiracies and propagandas than facts. Just trying to bring up the missing facts that were ignored. And those China policies and photos are available online on China news websites. You be the judge.

This is the standard arrogant Chinese answer. The rest of the world is wrong, only Chinese are always right. Can be ignored

if you disagree with his opinions, it's better to point out where you think he misunderstands, just saying "Western point of view using Western value and cultural reference" is wrong is wildly unconvincing

Tony Lin They are funded by US motherfuckers to kill each other, to kill civilians.

Tony Lin You are not White, so probably you don't know what is a "proxy war".

half a million Syrians are killed by white people, or by civil war? (i'm not White, but it's good to get the facts straight)

just like us president rothfors in 1940s,we find the chance of transfer of hegemony and try to seize this opportunity .therefor the 4 term of president is a necessary to counter the us as the us at the brink of decline...those has no basic concepts of how the world work should be silent

梁浩 of course his dad does influence especially among the military. And I am Chinese. This guy got it mainly right

thats all u can do,LOL

you are a shabi, if you aren't a dog.

you know a bird, pengyou.

and xijinping get a lot of power before 1978,before his father comeback,so,you guys keep crying,LOL

and xijinping get power before 1978,so,you guys keep crying,LOL

Are you trying to mislead the foreigner? His father is purged but still a prominent figure. This is why his father could return to the high ranking position afterward. Xi is of course enjoying help from the old subordinates of his father.

Yes, his father was rehabilitated, but his older sister committed suicide during the purge, that should tell you something. All I can say is the princeling status gives him more than privileges, it also bring pains upon him.

his father was fully rehabilitated in 1978, then went on to hold leadership roles in Guangdong, then later elected to the Politburo and the party secretariat. His father clearly came back to power after the cultural revolution. I think it is you who need to get more knowledge (" His father was sent to prison, and never come back"), to even make a comment on YouTube

What history and culture did you study? The Chinese history I study tells me when a strong leader with a clear vision arises, and the government is well-organized, the outlook is spectacular. We all have bias and blind spots, but stop calling people brain-washed. Neoliberalism has not sorted out the mess it created in the last several decades, I don't China should take its prescription.

Well, the US government did!

That's how simpleton interpret things.....np

So you are calling yourself nvm simpleton? Sure!

ks lee nvm simpleton

No need to elaborate,your Trump supporters like to spin every words. everybody knows that fact. Only the people like you brainwashed by your dumb President and the living dead staffs is still calling yourselves Great. Calling yourselves Great is useless, unless the rest of the world agreed to it. We don't care what your Trump supporters have been whining and boasting all this while. Your Trump is a loser, his life is full of shit and scandal and that's is your so called "Great American President". Continue to praise yourself and your country, yes you are a Patriot but a dumb one in the eyes of the rest of the world! I am not from China, but we are know that! Fact is fact, no need to say other things to bull all over and over again, if you are not fed up , we are very fed up hearing and reading it OK!

ks lee elaborate

Trump is the President for USA means collapse of USA!!!!!!!!!!

poo just wake up from a wet dream , nationalism always bring war he will be responsible in front of Chinese population for what he did. This will end badly.

Irresponsible, ill-informed research with arrogant attitude. Geez, you guys call such idiot political scholar in America? No wonder the country is falling. Boo, Do more searches and come up something new.

One word in conclusion, the western has been duped by the CCP, and many scholar like the one in this video are still unwilling to say the truth. The CCP will eat you alive when it gets strong enough, but the potential targets are keep talking they are not sure if it is a monster or a cooperative friend.

A typical china bashing speech. Didn't get much useful information from it.

As a Chinese citizen, I think Professor Rory's speech is very convincing and agreeable.

Very impressive. The most accurate and comprehensive talk about China in English on youtube I've seen in years. It's sad to see all these 50 cents army try to twist the reality in the comment.

This talk is complete garbage.

xi jinping are to great for china we want him to lead china for next 10 next years

感觉没啥insight,就是一般follow中国新闻的都知道的事情。

It means that Chinese foreign policy and foreign agreements don't change every 4 years like it is with the US.

The West has been advancing the discourse on what a good political system looks like. As a Chinese, I do see merits in these discourses. China does need an overhaul on its systems.

Just bullshit ,don't judge.

The economical environment for the USA is much better than that in China. Yet the USA can only manage two or three percent annual growth. If China followed the example of the USA, China would do no better than the US. Then China could never catch up with the west. That is why China must find its own way to success.

well, this young boy knows nothing, very misguiding content

Usual Western hypocrisy. It is propaganda when promoting the China Dream but not MAGA (Make America Great Again). Anything good from China is propaganda anything bad is truth so portrayed by the Western media.

好多五毛儿啊

This guy is completely missing the point. The problem is he does not know anything about China. Wasting time listening to him.

His level of knowledge of China and the Chinese political system is on par with Gordon Guthrie Chang. And that is not saying much.

Only one thing I try to say. Those human rights lawyers, they just using the rules that made by the government to advocate for the people. And Chinese government just put them in jail? So what is the meaning of those rules? And how we the normal people know what things we do are right or wrong? This is so ridiculous. So for those people just say this white man doesn't know anything about China. if someday Chinese government say it is wrong to comment on youtube, and ready to punish all the people did it.What will you do? What can you do? I think rules are important, they should be either followed or amendment, but not be ignored.

DigitalCat There are so many rules that some of them can protect you and some can harm you. It is the man in power who decides which rules he use. So the rules mean nothing. The normal people are meant to stay away from politics and mind your own business, do not comment on the government and public affairs. Actually, IT IS wrong for a Chinese citizen to comment on YouTube. The Chinese government blocked youtube from Chinese users. You can only access YouTube through a VPN, which is also not allowed to use. There are two kind of rules in China, the written rules, which I said mean nothing when you have no power, and the hidden rules, which you never quite know what they are. So the smart move is to work hard and keep silent.

This so-called professor does not know much about China. What a moron! He read too much from the western media and spew the same crap as them !

Do you think he can keep his job at Princeton if he is a bit more pro-China? Most America's China experts play dumb.

actually, there is no analysis of this speech. all he said is the common knowledge of most Chinese citizen. as for me, no novel results were obtained. right now, most friends of mine knows that Xi is president for life, no doubt. He undertook huge risk to make the 3 steps, he and also wang qishan, are power addicts. the key issue is Chinese citizens and elites are too scared to do anything protecting the so called constitution. anyway, it is not tough job to control 1 billion cowards

Prof. Rory Truex's mandarin is flawless in terms of pronounciation and if his chinese vocabulary is on par with the average Chinese level, I would say he is more Chinese than I myself. However I can't comment on his POV of the Chinese political arena, but wow am I impressed by this professor.

the professor shakes his head when he mentioned Donald Trump... i guess everyone has their own problems lol

"You're wrong! Why? Because I am right." - that's how the west thinks.

it lr it’s more Chinese government’s way of thinking

I can't continue listening to this white thrash who knows nothing about China and yet talk so much about. He is better off talking the the wars the american protracted.I am stopping here at 9.00.

Another stupid American are trying to using his stupid American thought to explain China. Your stupid democracy elect Trump. Your stupid democracy divided America.

Some truth and interesting things. But do not agree with all of this but I am no educator. I really like the west to go on the wrong path.

Hopeless professor !!! Someone who know it all... LOL !!! Western smart aleck...

So true... He is just spewing the same crap from the western MSM.

Gao Jie 你了解一下美国政治就知道,政府决策是倚重教授的判断的。虽然政治家可以为目的忽悠民众,教授还是知道背后水深水浅。美国的学界各种人都有,有的是旅居海外的,配偶是海外的,对外国的了解没那么瞎。比如中国人了解日本的必读书《菊与刀》就是教授为驻日占领军写的,日本人也高度评价好不好。 更著名的莫过纳粹日本对华经济调查,现在为了挑动仇恨日本,说日本人战前全方面刺探中国,是多么多么了解中国,以证明日本蓄谋已久。何不说日本根本不了解中国,全是偏见。也不知道没有美帝帮助,老蒋准备怎么打败对中国充满偏见的日本。

Solo it’s not arrogance not even real Chinese people’s opinion it’s from Chinese communities capitalists gangsters’ hired propaganda barking dogs commonly known as wumao— fifty cents army online trolls get paid for these fake opinions

+Jedi solo this is nothing to do with right or wrong, this is an analysis by this american professor on China, not America and not you.

Keawe Wong Isn't Marxism western point of view?

Xi is a puppet emperor period

Fang ting Zhu i hope you know the crap you toss out here and what xi a man really is with his pathetically poor education and hooligan personality

One must learn rigorously about Chinese history, Shiji, Zuozhuan, Chunqiu, 24 Shi (dynasty of history), Zi Zhi Tong Jian at least and so on. Ancient scripts, Sishu Wujing (4 books and 5 classics) at least and so on. Philosophy, Daodejing, Yinyang, Martial arts of Sunze at least and endless of books to understand a Chinese leader. There is no easy leadership in China, not based on popularity. Otherwise, any comments are just plainless.

Tony Lin I guess this (you westerners) is the new slogan of idiots who can't accept their state is a totaliterian. Russians who loves Putin talks like that, Turks who likes Erdogan talks like that and so on.

Speak out your points and lets see how good you are

IloIoIoIIoIloIIollIolIoIlolI Your Saudi ally just slaughtered 40 plus children in a crowded market in Yemen. I think you American barbarians are planning to kill another 500,000 Yemenis in order to "free" Yemen.

See how Chinese idiots have been brainwashed and now attempting yo brainwash others China is doomed

White thrash expect the world to be like US. But look at their own racist demicracy, rich n poor gap, large number of homeless people. $21trillion debt which will never be paid, warmongering attitude.High divorce rate. Who want to be like US must be really fools. Hooray China, you have a winning system. Keep it up.

Jedi solo I am a Chinese student in America. I can assure to you that 梁浩 is just so pathetic to utter his nonsense about the lecturer.

Please don't say so, in China, there is a group of guys who well paid by government, this is their job.

梁浩 Get power? Even before his graduation from college ? LOL Great joke!

please spend 5 mins, 10 mins at maximum, to search Chenyun's cadre policies after 1978. if your comment makes you well paid, just ignore this suggestion.

His father was set free after Mao's death and collapse of the Gang of Four. His father gained great respect inside party during Deng's era, and was in charge of Guangdong, which was the frontier of opening policy and the most rapidly growing province. His father might be the most 10 influential persons in China during 1980s-1990s, even his father was not in the level of major leaders of party and country. Xi Jinping benefited a lot from his father, and was considered to be prince, even in late 1990s, when people were discussing who will be the next emperor after Hu. Xi was an underdog at that time, but indeed a major competitor to be king.

Idiot, Certainly has a lot to do with his family background

This man know nothing about Xi? Xi's success has nothing to do with his father? You only know something enough to let you say those silly words, not even qualified to be wrong.

man, it's SB(silly below-part, in Chinese context) or BS(bull shit, in English context)

你太搞笑了,没有他爹,他算什么…

What history and culture did you study? The Chinese history I study tells me when a strong leader with a clear vision arises, and the government is well-organized, the outlook is spectacular. We all have bias and blind spots, but stop calling people brain-washed. Neoliberalism has not sorted out the mess it created in the last several decades, I don't China think should take its prescription.

I can tell you that 90% of Chinese population want to get rid of this cynical corrupt and authoritarian regime,they want freedom is that simple.

it's a total waste of time arguing with wumao.

From the long history memories,American is like a little naive baby when comparing with chinese enthics. USA's successed in modernization area cannot represent complexity of the whole world,and this is the big flaw of USA. From chinese enthics history experiences,American enthics has a long way to go.

The big flaw of USA is American enthics don't have the long history memories like the other enthics,expecially chinese enthics have long history memories.The USA just want a westernized world,killing the diversity of the world basing on USA modernization experience which is short and cannot represent the complexity of others.That's why USA made “conflicts of civilization” coming true. The big patient is USA,arrogant and naive,and USA isn't great in long history memories which in chinese eyes,USA is naive little boy.

CCP had sent their wumao here to belittle the speech.

What the fuck he is talking about?

whats your alternative because the so called western democracy has proven time and again it is only meant and works only in western society,look at africa,middle east,southeast asia,latin america,if it is not coruption it is blood all in the name of democracy and you want china to follow suit in this catastrophy called "democry" thats a western invention?Hell no long live "socialism with chinesse characteric for the modern era" cause we the rest of the world are tired of being corupt and spilling our blood for the pasuit of YOUR democratic ideals, sorry but compared to your way and system and the china way,I think the china model works for the rest of the world unlike your model that only works for and your kind(north america,western europe,australia and new zealand olny) so you cant confuse us any more,china is not the enemy their model is not bad but your ("democracy") is a failed model for the rest of the world.

As a Chinsese, I want to know why theis guy conscerns soooo much about dissidents, lawyers and activists rather than normal Chinese citizens. What I want to know in this video is whether normal citizens can live better and protect their right under Xi' s rule? Will the increasingly powerful gov will infringe people's normal life and property like Mao's era? Will Xi slow down the growth given by Deng's policy? Will the China model more suit to Africa than democracy? You care nothing about China and the World, you just care about your anti-communism comrades, those who dare not to walk under CCTV cameras.

Officially the Xi Dynasty and the revival of the Chinese Empire. He is the Emperor now.

I had high hopes for these talks at google. Look at, for instance, the Mark Blyth talk. Just packed with data and insight. I actually somewhat hoped that this speaker would deliver a proper data-driven roasting of Xi but instead failed even to surpass the level of insight of high school educated taxi drivers in China. This is just a regurgitation of any Rachel Maddow show

There are quite a lot of Chinese nationalists around here.But for me,I think Professor Truex makes some good points.

A lot of commie 50-cent Army here lol

One sided. No need to listen to him. Today with the free web media, people can read wider, from a wider spread media. His information is cater for stereo America media like The NY Times, CNN, NBC etc,,

It is a shame that such a biased man is in the teaching position in the USA to poison the young minds when they need most of the real intellectual enlightenment. Speaking from a person born and raised under the Communist Chinese government and emigrated to the USA for almost three decades, I am appalled by your willful extreme lefty slander about current American political situation and the Trump administration. As an amateur historian, I think the USA is experiencing a healthy cleansing of its corruption of the past decades engineered by Bill Clinton, Bush, and Obama, who have divided American people into endless interest groups and pitted against one another. There are no comparison between Xi and Trump, one is put there by the Communist Party while the other was lawfully elected by the people (albeit in the thickness of Left rigging of all sorts ever imagined) . Trump has done none of the things Xi has been doing systematically. You really should be ashamed of your very skewed comparison. Do remember all your peers are Lefty Democrats who probably would not mind live under Xi.

Really well said and on point.

Typical ‘Cold War mentality’ and full of prejudice. He offers no independent analysis of China’s current political situation and purely reaffirmation of the ‘same old’ biased view of China. If that’s the best US can offer in terms of ‘China expert’, I am worried. Both Americans and Chinese alike should be worried.

What a shame! A professor was regurgitating lies fabricated by MSM.

All the shills on this board are really not going to help the Chinese cause, because most people watching this are too educated to buy the simplistic dichotomies being proffered below. It's sad, the golden age of Chinese liberalism is over. Let's hope another Deng Xiaoping will come after! I say this as a lover of China and believer that it can do great good for the world if it keeps its act together. Xi is a great leader, but too long in power can corrupt even the most well-intentioned of men.

31:22 为什么我就敢在中国问那个问题,一看就知道你没去过中国啊。。。

Here we go again arrogant chinese people making their points in the comments how righteous and smart they are compared to the world. Can we all just toss these chinese scrubs to one big jar called china and don't let them out and see if they turn it into a tiny utopia

China is a Communist country, not a Democracy. Communists seek social justice and social good, whereas Democracies seek instant gratification of the individuals with total disregard for others. Democracies inevitably fail into mob rule, anarchy, and lawlessness, as it happened in Athens 2500 years ago, as correctly predicted by Socrates, as it is happening in USA today. One man one vote is a joke. May the love and the peace of Jesus be with us.

Is He not She. Apologize for the mistake.

She is paid to do all these.

What a fascinating talk, thank you

Good talks. Every American should believe him except Jewish.

To all western viewers, there is no insight in this talk at all. If you can read Chinese and follow Chinese news as a typical Chinese person, you know everything he said in this talk. This talk makes me think that the standard of being a professor in political science as a China expert is surprisingly low in the US.

China doesn't need google. Leave and never comeback. Bye bye.

XI WILL BE THE FOUNDER OF CHINA DEMOCRACY

CHINA WILL HAVE REAL DEMOCRACY VERY SOON.

here is what they taught me at University . . . 250k later. Utterly predictable.

This is the worst kind of professor, not very objective and full of false assumptions. These kind of people do great harm to society by pretending that they are not ideologically biased and driven by false beliefs.

I do respect for Democracy in US. While I don't think that institution may work well after being transplanted to China. The institution of China should evolve to what it be instead of being taught to what it be by American elite. In fact, I feel less intimidated for criticizing local government online. The consolidation of Xi in power has made headers of local government not dare abuse power on normal people as they did before Xi

这教授水平太差了,我怀疑这货的博士论文是水论文。没有高深理论只是说些我都知道的东西

我是觉得自己网络产业发达就行,外网就应该取其精华,去其糟粕。开放谷歌学术这类就可以了,其他的没啥必要。

Jiafeng Wang 现在有些说法是要实现网络自由,用了两三年油管和非死感觉就是扯淡,即使用这些东西但你所接触到主要生活圈还是那几样,但这些媒介存在太多以推翻中国为目的的假新闻和造谣媒体、个人;恰恰我也意识到中国才是对网络利用相对好的地方,每年中国留学生和出国人次那么多不影响用外网,同时我们也有自己的网络;反观西方倒是只有这些;我们可以随时看到他们的优点改正自己发展我们自己,但我们创造的他们就不一定知道

讲新闻上都讲的东西,反正就是西方主流思想对国内政治的看法,反正这教授讲的不行,没啥深度。

Jiafeng Wang 这教授讲的啥玩意

dude you're white stfu lol did xi fuck your mom or something

Lots of 10 cent army officials in the comment section.

If you can't read Trump in US right, how are you able to read China Xi?

China won't be like what they have today if they worship American democracy hundred of millions of Chinese die figthing against western democracy system back then in the 40th

American are the master of manipulation and propaganda creating lies and hatred against leaders who refuse to accept their one sided policy and demands

yet google decides to return to China to do business. let's see if this talk does anything to google's decision making

Xi is most definitely not for life, they have him extended, but realistically his term is going to end sometime 2025-2035

So many educated five mao here. They can comment in English. Damn.

What about China setting up military bases in Africa ? And where they lend loans that are defaulting ? And what about them taking over Venezuela ?

I always listen to talks like this with hope to learn something different, creative, productive and meanwhile pragmatic, in short, a solution, but only half way through found disappointment of hearing same old narrative. It's most superficial to question a real life operating system in any family, organisation or state, and it's most complex to really make life better in general. Mr Truex has a lot of questions and doubts, but clearly has nothing helpful.

As a Chinese myself, I found this presentation very informative. Many of us are worrying about what Xi and the party are trying to do, especially after removing the term limits. That’s why Chinese citizens are always among the top groups of new immigrants in Australia, Canada and the us.

Well the problem of other chinese, they over exaggerate the capabilities of the chinese they become so dense and racist they won't listen to the opinions of foreigners.

Trump is only guy can beat Xi

I think if you are going to compromise your values and stands as an academics, you sh avoid the chinese market but no they are there for the money, but back home they can to create something their home audience love to hear and speak anti china

44:40 this guy thinks much deeper than the lecturer himself. Let me answer you - for the first one, the view has been divided among richer places and poorer areas. People in Beijing and in Shanghai generally oppose that action, especially in Shanghai, and they post articles on wechat despite the censorship. But people in rural and poorer areas generally support an authoritarian government. It was same situation back in 1989, the killed were Beijing citizens and students from other provincial capitals, while the killer were soldiers from Sichuan, a poor and mountainous province. This is in part due to Confusianism, but roots in geopolitical history of Han Chinese. Historically, Han Chinese were constantly invaded by barbarians from the north, like Huns and Mongols to list a few. This nomads can only be countered by a national army at scale. So Han Chinese learned nationalism thousands of years ago. And the survival of the race weighs much heavier than personal free will during continuous wars. The extreme collectivism naturally boils down to authoritarianism - just like army. During WWII, Japanese were another barbarian tribe on Chinese and it is no surprise the extreme leftist won. In general, if the majority of Han population cannot abandon the extreme collectivism which emphasis any sacrifice must be made from the individual to the entire race/nation and soldiers must obey the authority no matter what, there is no room for democracy. However, this leftist mindset has gradually been shattered during recent news and online posts. There is still bright side.

If it is so bad with Facebook and google and all that, why are these American companies still trying to get into the Chinese market? Rory sh not go to China if that place is so dangerous

US started nationhood by exterminating the Red Indians, is this human rights?. It then tested the hydrogen bombs on the polynesian people in Marshall Island - such a great nation and these people are still suffering from radiation and seeking compensation. Hmmm good human rights? Then US is the only country that depopulated a whole island of Diego Garcia and moved all to Mauritius. Human rights again? It started 14 wars in Africa and Middle East, dropped the mother of all bombs on Syrians by getting the White Helmet to create a chemical attack scene for US to use to attack Syria. Then to top it all it is the only country to drop two atomic bombs on Japan. The US believe it can attack any country at will without UN approval e.g Iraq under the pretence of weapons of mass destruction. .....Cheers to American human rights

This talked reminded me of some The Economist articles, where everything sounds reasonable and well documented, with a small exaggeration here and there so, at the end, the reader/listener is a bit against the subject in question. Manipulation at his best. The funny part is that probably he was trying to be informative and honest.

I admit I haven't went through the whole video. And I am just an ordinary Chinese. I just have one question. Is democracy suitable for current China? Is It that powerful? I heard democracy has also failed in several countries. Maybe It is just the brainwash from my government.

Vaccine is not made by government. Victim can sue the producer. Is not the news of fake vaccine released by the Chinese media?

Shengji Gu - This will be a little bit long so sorry in advance. Democracy isn’t just about voting and election. That’s just most visible stuff on surface. That’s why so many countries fail because they think they just organize free election and every problem in society disappears which isn’t the case. Democracy is about representation. So in ideal scenario all people should feel represented. Like when some policy is decided and your opinion is heard and counted in. But for individual to form an opinion on issue they have to have all information on such issue. So first, individual must have good education. They have to actually understand the policy, all its negatives and positives and then decided if for them positives outweigh the negatives. No policy is only good, there is always compromise between good and bad. For example, you put solar power in place so you will have less smog in city, but solar energy isn’t stable source, because as it gets cloudy it goes up and down. So your electric infrastructure gets strained. So you have to balance between cleaner air and functional electric grid. And there will be those who want more stable grid and those who want cleaner air. And both groups need reliable information. They need more independent sources of news. Good informative news is essential. If you don’t know that electric grid is strained, you put too much solar panels and you might cause collapse to your grid. And no single person has all the answers that’s why you need more sources of news. Next you need checks and balances. Lets say politician is corrupt. And he has ties on coal plant. So he stops all solar panel production because he gets money from coal industry. There obviously have to be someone who controls him so he won’t just do whatever he wants. There needs to be independent court and police. This politician can’t have any leverage on them because if he does he can do whatever he wants. That’s why there always have to be split in power. Those who produce law. Those who implement law. And judges. No part more important than other and all independent of each other. Because they all control each other. There has to be permanent control. Not just between them, but by everybody. You can’t have corruption scandal, if all contracts signed by lets say mayor of big city are public. Everything he does is monitored not just occasionally by police, but also by media and every citizen who can just ask for copy of the document to find something out of ordinary. If vast portion of public monitors his behavior it’s really hard to do shady stuff on the side. Next is your individual rights guaranteed by constitution. This is deal breaker that most countries ignore and then they fail. You have to have basic line that guarantees your rights no matter who is in office. I often see countries where some wanabee dictator wins election with like 51% and he does whatever he wants as if those other 49% didn’t exist. That’s not how this whole thing should work. Democracy isn’t just tyranny of majority. Those other countries usually just swing from one extreme to another by each election. Constitution gives stability. That’s why every country should have their own constitution on which everyone in that country agrees. What that particular country wants no matter political opinion, religion, if they are from big city or rural area. Lets say everyone agrees that no citizen should be tortured. Once that is part of constitution it won’t matter who wins election. Even when some politician wins and he would want to make a law that torturing his political opponents is OK because they are against his coal plant, judge who is independent on him will see that it’s against constitution and his law will be nullified. … All those things I mentioned should be implement ideally before even people start to think about election. Without them there is no safeguard. You asked whether democracy is powerful. Consider this. During cold war, in 1970s and 1980s. Video games were just for fun. To outside observer they didn’t have any real value. For soviet government it was just distraction from other more productive endeavors. They wanted to have bigger industrial output, produce more steel, produce more energy. And yet. Since then video game industry became massive. Not just that. Game industry pushed for consumer electronics. Consumer electronics pushed for miniaturization of chips. Computers spread more and more. The market boomed. By the time soviet leadership realized they missed the train it was too late. Home computers changed everything from international trade, to work productivity. All those billion dollar companies that sprung from it gave US tremendous amount of power. Smartest people in government can’t just predict everything. In hindsight we can see that this or that technology gave some country big advantage. We can’t do that for future. That’s why free societies thrive. If everyone can do their own thing. That’s millions weird and stupid failures simultaneously and that one thing that will be the next big thing. And that one thing might look stupid and weird too in the beginning, so if there is government which doesn’t like weird they will shut it down. And once again they miss the train.

Many forms of Gov­ern­ment have been tried, and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pre­tends that democ­ra­cy is per­fect or all-wise. Indeed it has been said that democ­ra­cy is the worst form of Gov­ern­ment except for all those oth­er forms that have been tried from time to time . - Churchill IMHO, the modern democracy must include free election, free media, check & balance. Do those failed democracy you heard of include these three elements? I don't know if democracy will fit the current China, but I would ask this, under the current system, how do you guarantee your freedom & rights under the constitution writtern by CPC? Let's say you are a victim of the current vaccine scandal, can you sue the government? I must admit I don't know know the answer, maybe you know. But I still rememeber what happened to Zhao Lianhai(趙連海). And I know what happened to the official who was involved in this vaccine scandal were also involved in the baby formula scandal 10 years ago. There is no accountability in the current system.

Shengji Gu American democracy bring nothing except unrest and choas among the peoples against their own government destroying peace and development when China open up their door in the 80th Tiananmen protest almost bring China down to its knee sponsor by the western country if democary was accepted by China back then China would have been colonize and ended up like Africa and Middle and USSR dividing them apart into pieces easy to control by the United States of America China would be going back into history the weak man of Asia and Chinese will never rise their head

pooh just wake up from a wet dream , nationalism always bring war he will be responsible in front of Chinese population for what he did. This will end badly.

Ming Liu Yup, the US just had to go and help them survive in 1946 to keep China divided in two.

你真睿智,这么没水准的教授

你智障儿童欢乐多

Sam Token 把你妈叫来我给你妈舔成黑虎……

+George Clancy Done that. "Others, like those stupid lawyers, are dealt with in accordance to the law of the land, period." May the love and the peace of Jesus be with us.

"Laws are made for governing, not for discussions. Only the party members who are knowledgeable and authorized to discuss the laws may discuss the laws at appropriate venues." Read that again why don't you...

+DigitalCat +ZENG BIN Exactly. China is a country of law and order. Obey the law or you will be dealt with according to the law of the land. It's that simple. Laws are made for governing, not for discussions. Only the party members who are knowledgeable and authorized to discuss the laws may discuss the laws at appropriate venues. Others, like those stupid lawyers, are dealt with in accordance to the law of the land, period. May the love and the peace of Jesus be with us.

Iam right you re different than me so you’re wrong

Without the big help from American, China was not in a position to defeat Japan's invasion in the WWII and to become one of the top 5 nations in the UN. That is part of history that the CCP never mention.

Fu, Well said. One of few posts of Chinese is not rubbish.

莫谈国事

有些东西已经是定论了,还能有什么见解啊?江湖模式没走下去,主要就是因为腐败太严重了。习上台说明确实需要强力的领导。至于说经济政策,总的来说还是好的,得到了班农同志的大加赞赏。贸易战还得看各国实力。再说新疆搞监控的事,西方老百姓,明白怎么回事之后,都说终于为人类做了件好事。

这教授,我觉的水平一般,就是很顺从西方主流思想,没有啥新见解。

这教授判断的还行吧?但是我不知道你后来写的这些话,和之前的留言有什么关系?作为一个天天看foxnews cnn的人,我觉着美国人挺偏见朝鲜和俄罗斯的啊?越南,其实他们黑的也非常多啊?

五毛

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